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Playing the Umps: System when ump info available

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Posted: #1
I've been killing it on  the King of Covers contest in the O/U category ever since Ump stats have been available (rank 26th of 6001 O/U +15800). I think I can help those who play totals. I use Statfox and MLB weather and then look at pitchers last 7 games/road vs home eras and other occasional situational info.

My ump system is simple. I go to statsfox umpire info....take SO avg per game of ump - Base on Balls per (BB) - ERA avg. per game.

If the total you get is less than 5.5.....usually a strong lean to taking the OVER in the game. If you get a number over 7.5.....strong lean to the under......plus you marry it with the pitcher stats/situation info like elevation/Temps over 80F to make up your 'decision-cocktail'.

The best Umpy/totals-situational games tonight are : 

      Umpy factor#     Pitchers: (v) era/ (h) era    Wind (I/O/N)/Heat>80

U8.5 Atl/Phil= 8.4         4.9 era/ 3.17 era       O-6mph- right pole

U8.0 Mia/NYM= 8.2      4.6 era/ 3.89 era       O-5mph- right pole

O8.5 Det/Clev= 3.6        6.75 era/ 3.8 era       Non-factor

O9.0 Tex/Bos= 3.5         3.28 era/ 4.7 era      O-5mph- left pole

07.5 Bal/LAD= 1.9 !!       4.17 era/ 3.00 era     O-8mph- right-centre

When looking at the whole situation and matchups, I recommend:

Under phil/atl 8.5
Over  det/clev 8.5
Over balt/dodgers 7.5

Good luck!








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Posted: #2
Regardless of the outcome very informative & thorough analysis!  

I sent you a friend request if you could accept.


 
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Posted: #3
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by SnakeMan420:

Regardless of the outcome very informative & thorough analysis!  

I sent you a friend request if you could accept.



Sure....new forum poster so how do I do so? Regards
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by SnakeMan420:

Regardless of the outcome very informative & thorough analysis!  

I sent you a friend request if you could accept.



I figured it out.....accepted!
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Posted: #6
SUGGESTION 'UMPY ANGLE' PLAYS 05/07= 3-0-1 (1 pending...)

RECOMMENDED PLAYS= 2-0-1

Covers Totals Ranking= 
I've been killing it on  the King of Covers contest in the O/U category ever since Ump stats have been available (rank 26th of 6001 O/U +15800). I think I can help those who play totals. I use Statfox and MLB weather and then look at pitchers last 7 games/road vs home eras and other occasional situational info.

My ump system is simple. I go to statsfox umpire info....take SO avg per game of ump - Base on Balls per (BB) - ERA avg. per game.

If the total you get is less than 5.5.....usually a strong lean to taking the OVER in the game. If you get a number over 7.5.....strong lean to the under......plus you marry it with the pitcher stats/situation info like elevation/Temps over 80F to make up your 'decision-cocktail'.

The best Umpy/totals-situational games tonight are : 

      Umpy factor#     Pitchers: (v) era/ (h) era    Wind (I/O/N)/Heat>80

U8.5 Atl/Phil= 8.4         4.9 era/ 3.17 era       O-6mph- right pole

U8.0 Mia/NYM= 8.2      4.6 era/ 3.89 era       O-5mph- right pole

O8.5 Det/Clev= 3.6        6.75 era/ 3.8 era       Non-factor

O9.0 Tex/Bos= 3.5         3.28 era/ 4.7 era      O-5mph- left pole

07.5 Bal/LAD= 1.9 !!       4.17 era/ 3.00 era     O-8mph- right-centre

When looking at the whole situation and matchups, I recommend:

Under phil/atl 8.5
Over  det/clev 8.5
Over balt/dodgers 7.5

Good luck!

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Posted: #7
This is pretty interesting and sounds like it's working for you! I'll be looking forward to seeing how it progresses. I didn't know how much an ump could affect the total, again very interesting.

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by JayDubsJr:

This is pretty interesting and sounds like it's working for you! I'll be looking forward to seeing how it progresses. I didn't know how much an ump could affect the total, again very interesting.


Cheers.... stay tuned as I will update the rest of the way. I have figured out that totals are my niche so I might as well share. In the meantime, have a look at these two statsfox sites to help with game handicapping. 

https://www.statfox.com/mlb/umpiremain.asp

https://www.statfox.com/mlb/gamematchup.asp  ....just click on a pitcher and see their road vs home stats and last 7 games....my record has amped up since I found these two! 
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Posted: #9
Also....King of Covers numbers....

284
Net Units: 
+10198
Overall:
487-426-17
Last 10: 
7-3-0
Last 20: 
15-5-0



+1720018 of 6015
- See more at: https://contests.covers.com/KingOfCovers/Contestant/MyProfile/6ed66d17-7bd9-4ab9-a142-a5d800afc6db#sthash.eQaCUKpJ.dpuf

Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:


Cheers.... stay tuned as I will update the rest of the way. I have figured out that totals are my niche so I might as well share. In the meantime, have a look at these two statsfox sites to help with game handicapping. 

https://www.statfox.com/mlb/umpiremain.asp

https://www.statfox.com/mlb/gamematchup.asp  ....just click on a pitcher and see their road vs home stats and last 7 games....my record has amped up since I found these two! 
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Posted: #10
I don't understand your formula. Dodgers game it gave you 1.9 yet you bet the OVER??
 
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Posted: #12
[Quote: Originally Posted by m0rtgageguy] I don't understand your formula. Dodgers game it gave you 1.9 yet you bet the OVER?? [/Quote


Anything below a 5-factor indicates to me that the umpire is usually calling a tight game on average which means......if you look at the formula.....less strikeouts vs more walks + generating a high era

In other words, it is a ratio of how the umpire is affecting the strike zone location for pitchers which is then therefore allowing hitters to be more selective at the plate which usually means a combination of more hits/walks/runs......therefore a higher score total from the umpire's influence. 

Conversely, an umpire factor over 7.5 indicates the umpire is aiding the pitcher and therefore influencing a lower run total usually...

I  am only sharing my success. Since I have been using this 'concocted' formula for about a month, my bankroll has increased and I have climbed to rank 20 of over 6000 in the King of Covers MLB contest for my totals plays.......   +16600 20 of 6018      
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Posted: #13
So the plays that you have listed in post #6, are those or Wednesday?
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by HoustonSports:

So the plays that you have listed in post #6, are those or Wednesday?

No, sorry.....I was just pasting my system in. Those were for Tues. I am putting together my play list vs Umpires today....not a strong card at all. It will be posted soon. It will be interesting to see today how things play out because I don't like the era bias and matchups vs the umpiring bias but I guess the system will work out the result that it does. Stay tuned.....will be posted shortly. 
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Posted: #15
If the total you get is less than 5.5.....usually a strong lean to taking the OVER in the game. If you get a number over 7.5.....strong lean to the under......plus you marry it with the pitcher stats/situation info like elevation/Temps over 80F to make up your 'decision-cocktail

I am very interested in what you are doing here. One question for you though, Where/How did you come up with the 5.5 and 7.5 numbers that you are looking at? This seems to be the most important part of your system. Why not 5.3 and 7.8? These just seem like arbitrary numbers. I would love to learn how you came up with those as your bench marks.

Keep up the great work, I like what I am seeing here. Thanks for sharing!
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by MoMoney2:

If the total you get is less than 5.5.....usually a strong lean to taking the OVER in the game. If you get a number over 7.5.....strong lean to the under......plus you marry it with the pitcher stats/situation info like elevation/Temps over 80F to make up your 'decision-cocktail

I am very interested in what you are doing here. One question for you though, Where/How did you come up with the 5.5 and 7.5 numbers that you are looking at? This seems to be the most important part of your system. Why not 5.3 and 7.8? These just seem like arbitrary numbers. I would love to learn how you came up with those as your bench marks.

Keep up the great work, I like what I am seeing here. Thanks for sharing!

The 5.5-7.5 ump factor range is my neutral zone and I have come up with this number over the past month. I believe that if my number falls into this range or close to it, excluding other factors, the umpire avg. stats will not 'likely' have a strong influence on the TOTAL outcome, however other factors could 'excluding' the umpires influence. When I get a combo of 'other factors' plus my umpire factor # below 5.5 or above 7.5....my Total sides when playing the King of Covers mlb contest have been hitting well over 70% for the past 3-4 weeks. It is only through observation that I am offering these 2 numbers as a so-called neutral zone to aid in the decision to lean to a total side. Notice that so far, I am suggesting plays that comfortably go under the 5.5 umpy factor# to suggest an OVER play and over the 7.5 umpy factor# to suggest an UNDER play. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of weeks or so, so long as Statsfox provides the umpire of the day stats (they don't always every day).

Cheers 
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Posted: #17
Have you tracked this as well? I see you have the wind in Cleveland as a non factor, but its blowing straight out at 12 MPH, it will be a factor for sure. 
 
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Posted: #18
So you went 2-1. Dodgers games at home at automatic unders dude.
 
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Are*
 
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Quote Originally Posted by DBallz77:

Have you tracked this as well? I see you have the wind in Cleveland as a non factor, but its blowing straight out at 12 MPH, it will be a factor for sure. 

Sorry, but you are looking at yesterday's picks. Yes, today it is blowing out large!....I did not suggest Clev/Det based on umpire stats matching up with factors like you suggest and others....
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by m0rtgageguy:

So you went 2-1. Dodgers games at home at automatic unders dude.

Sure.........nobody's perfect
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Posted: #22
That's baseball.. There are lots of factors.. The dominant ones are the home pitcher's home ERA, park factors, the teams' respective runs scores and allowed per game and road pitcher's road ERA. 

So anyways, what do you like for tomorrow? If I like any of the plays mutually, will hammer them :D
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by m0rtgageguy:

That's baseball.. There are lots of factors.. The dominant ones are the home pitcher's home ERA, park factors, the teams' respective runs scores and allowed per game and road pitcher's road ERA. 

So anyways, what do you like for tomorrow? If I like any of the plays mutually, will hammer them :D

Mortgage....you are cool.....I won't know what I am posting until I see the umpy stats....some days they don't offer them but I will post my recommendations on TOTALS based on other factors if umpy-factor can't be determined. You and I are on the same page my friend, with what to look for. I have found that when I add the umpy factor to my cocktail (mix-ology at its best), I get a pretty tasty outcome most of the time. Lets hope the system bears fruit but in the meantime, whether I keep it or trash it, I am doing pretty damn good with totals sans discovering this angle so I will continue to offer. PLEASE OFFER YOURSELF TOO because that is what it is all about!
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Posted: #24
Hey Mortgage, I knew I would like you ....just noticed you are from Quebec. I am going to live there when I retire for 6 months of the year somewhere in the vicinity of McGill /Peel St. area in Montreal. Go twice a year! I live in T-dot. Cheers
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:

Hey Mortgage, I knew I would like you ....just noticed you are from Quebec. I am going to live there when I retire for 6 months of the year somewhere in the vicinity of McGill /Peel St. area in Montreal. Go twice a year! I live in T-dot. Cheers

Nice. I go to T.Dot almost every week to visit family, sometimes work and poker. 

Here is what I do for baseball: 

Basically study every possible angle minus the umpys. If I get contradicting angles, I leave the game alone. That happens a lot. Usually on a full board I am going to find 3 or 4 totals that I REALLY like. I will make a 3-team parlay as a recreational bet. Sometimes 4 but I am VERY selective when it comes to 4 games and review them to see if there is one I'd like to "fold" out. 

I also go by certain "rules". Eg: Never touch a Yankees game. Never touch a Cubs game. Never touch a Cards game (for this season of course). Almost always stick to what's been working. Ie: Coors Field games OV, LAD home game UN, especially 10PM EST time.

My standard bets for parlays are betweek $150 and $300, maybe more if I had recently won. So far about 100 days in the season, I am up about 5K. Of all the losing days, I cannot remember a day when I lost more than 1 game. 95% of the time I lose the parlay, it is by 1 game.  3/4, 2/3, etc. 

Yesterday I had one of my worst bad beats ever. 

Needed LAD Under, Oakland OV, SF UN. SF was 2-0 after 6 and they give up a 4-spot in the 7th with 2 outs. Of ocurse the LA game costed under and the Oakland game errupted. 
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