Nice. I go to T.Dot almost every week to visit family, sometimes work and poker.
Here is what I do for baseball:
Basically study every possible angle minus the umpys. If I get contradicting angles, I leave the game alone. That happens a lot. Usually on a full board I am going to find 3 or 4 totals that I REALLY like. I will make a 3-team parlay as a recreational bet. Sometimes 4 but I am VERY selective when it comes to 4 games and review them to see if there is one I'd like to "fold" out.
I also go by certain "rules". Eg: Never touch a Yankees game. Never touch a Cubs game. Never touch a Cards game (for this season of course). Almost always stick to what's been working. Ie: Coors Field games OV, LAD home game UN, especially 10PM EST time.
My standard bets for parlays are betweek $150 and $300, maybe more if I had recently won. So far about 100 days in the season, I am up about 5K. Of all the losing days, I cannot remember a day when I lost more than 1 game. 95% of the time I lose the parlay, it is by 1 game. 3/4, 2/3, etc.
Yesterday I had one of my worst bad beats ever.
Needed LAD Under, Oakland OV, SF UN. SF was 2-0 after 6 and they give up a 4-spot in the 7th with 2 outs. Of ocurse the LA game costed under and the Oakland game errupted.
Well you are a better man than I.....I bet extremely selectively like Pitt/St.L over tonight.....but I do very well in all kinds of picking contests in all sports which is where I test my theories and that allows me to press more on certain plays. I usuallly only do 1-3 plays max. I will actually gamble more on where I do extremely well but once again, do not play every night except 1-2 cards/nights a week! I am usually up between $15-30K per year because I tend to hit exotics which pay for my sports gambling and trips with the wife....keeps her happy so the losing is not on her mind...have only had one 6-8 month bad stretch in both sports/horse gambling and it was bad but that was about 7 yrs ago or so.....I will keep suggesting Totals using my UMPY+ other angles and you continue to fire away with your critical thinking....its all good if we both collaborate/learn and
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Quote Originally Posted by m0rtgageguy:
Nice. I go to T.Dot almost every week to visit family, sometimes work and poker.
Here is what I do for baseball:
Basically study every possible angle minus the umpys. If I get contradicting angles, I leave the game alone. That happens a lot. Usually on a full board I am going to find 3 or 4 totals that I REALLY like. I will make a 3-team parlay as a recreational bet. Sometimes 4 but I am VERY selective when it comes to 4 games and review them to see if there is one I'd like to "fold" out.
I also go by certain "rules". Eg: Never touch a Yankees game. Never touch a Cubs game. Never touch a Cards game (for this season of course). Almost always stick to what's been working. Ie: Coors Field games OV, LAD home game UN, especially 10PM EST time.
My standard bets for parlays are betweek $150 and $300, maybe more if I had recently won. So far about 100 days in the season, I am up about 5K. Of all the losing days, I cannot remember a day when I lost more than 1 game. 95% of the time I lose the parlay, it is by 1 game. 3/4, 2/3, etc.
Yesterday I had one of my worst bad beats ever.
Needed LAD Under, Oakland OV, SF UN. SF was 2-0 after 6 and they give up a 4-spot in the 7th with 2 outs. Of ocurse the LA game costed under and the Oakland game errupted.
Well you are a better man than I.....I bet extremely selectively like Pitt/St.L over tonight.....but I do very well in all kinds of picking contests in all sports which is where I test my theories and that allows me to press more on certain plays. I usuallly only do 1-3 plays max. I will actually gamble more on where I do extremely well but once again, do not play every night except 1-2 cards/nights a week! I am usually up between $15-30K per year because I tend to hit exotics which pay for my sports gambling and trips with the wife....keeps her happy so the losing is not on her mind...have only had one 6-8 month bad stretch in both sports/horse gambling and it was bad but that was about 7 yrs ago or so.....I will keep suggesting Totals using my UMPY+ other angles and you continue to fire away with your critical thinking....its all good if we both collaborate/learn and
Posts like this are why I still come to this forum. Took under detroit this morning and couldn't understand why the line kept moving up. Two great pitchers but sure enough I didn't have all the info.
I'll be reading up on this.
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Posts like this are why I still come to this forum. Took under detroit this morning and couldn't understand why the line kept moving up. Two great pitchers but sure enough I didn't have all the info.
If I see two hot pitchers with bad offenses, + the park factors + the previous match up results in 4-1 type games and then I see the line open at 6.5 and go to 7.0, I shhit my pants. A very strong under can become a no-play. Kept SF UN last night and look what happened. This is when the fix is in.
Likewise I had a 4-teamer ready to pounce on with Rockies @ D-Backs at 9.5. The next morning it went to 9.0. Wtf? Reviewed the match up and could not find anything. Still removed it from parlay and kept it in a smaller 4-teamer. Was kicking myself when the score was 6-3 with runners on 2nd&3rd with nobody out in the 7th inning.
Final score 6-3! My other games had all won.
Same thing in Detroit this morning and same thing in Washington. Line move 8.5 to 9.0 in spite of two low ERA pitchers.. OF COURSE it sailed over.
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Fishy line movement are actually a big factor.
If I see two hot pitchers with bad offenses, + the park factors + the previous match up results in 4-1 type games and then I see the line open at 6.5 and go to 7.0, I shhit my pants. A very strong under can become a no-play. Kept SF UN last night and look what happened. This is when the fix is in.
Likewise I had a 4-teamer ready to pounce on with Rockies @ D-Backs at 9.5. The next morning it went to 9.0. Wtf? Reviewed the match up and could not find anything. Still removed it from parlay and kept it in a smaller 4-teamer. Was kicking myself when the score was 6-3 with runners on 2nd&3rd with nobody out in the 7th inning.
Final score 6-3! My other games had all won.
Same thing in Detroit this morning and same thing in Washington. Line move 8.5 to 9.0 in spite of two low ERA pitchers.. OF COURSE it sailed over.
I have this thread bookmarked. Keep posting your plays.
By the way, I started a new thread today because I tweaked the system slightly. Plus, I think I am a little more funny today than a couple of days ago. Notice that there are only 2 recommendations/suggestions today because Statsfox did not release all of their umpire matchups since it was the beginning of a new series....it happens. I will continue posting onto TODAYS THREAD from now on that way its easy to find and trace back info. Its starting to take root with a lot of interest....CHEERS
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by WCI:
I have this thread bookmarked. Keep posting your plays.
By the way, I started a new thread today because I tweaked the system slightly. Plus, I think I am a little more funny today than a couple of days ago. Notice that there are only 2 recommendations/suggestions today because Statsfox did not release all of their umpire matchups since it was the beginning of a new series....it happens. I will continue posting onto TODAYS THREAD from now on that way its easy to find and trace back info. Its starting to take root with a lot of interest....CHEERS
Nice. I go to T.Dot almost every week to visit family, sometimes work and poker.
Here is what I do for baseball:
Basically study every possible angle minus the umpys. If I get contradicting angles, I leave the game alone. That happens a lot. Usually on a full board I am going to find 3 or 4 totals that I REALLY like. I will make a 3-team parlay as a recreational bet. Sometimes 4 but I am VERY selective when it comes to 4 games and review them to see if there is one I'd like to "fold" out.
I also go by certain "rules". Eg: Never touch a Yankees game. Never touch a Cubs game. Never touch a Cards game (for this season of course). Almost always stick to what's been working. Ie: Coors Field games OV, LAD home game UN, especially 10PM EST time.
My standard bets for parlays are betweek $150 and $300, maybe more if I had recently won. So far about 100 days in the season, I am up about 5K. Of all the losing days, I cannot remember a day when I lost more than 1 game. 95% of the time I lose the parlay, it is by 1 game. 3/4, 2/3, etc.
Yesterday I had one of my worst bad beats ever.
Needed LAD Under, Oakland OV, SF UN. SF was 2-0 after 6 and they give up a 4-spot in the 7th with 2 outs. Of ocurse the LA game costed under and the Oakland game errupted.
living downtown boys if you want a beer
0
Quote Originally Posted by m0rtgageguy:
Nice. I go to T.Dot almost every week to visit family, sometimes work and poker.
Here is what I do for baseball:
Basically study every possible angle minus the umpys. If I get contradicting angles, I leave the game alone. That happens a lot. Usually on a full board I am going to find 3 or 4 totals that I REALLY like. I will make a 3-team parlay as a recreational bet. Sometimes 4 but I am VERY selective when it comes to 4 games and review them to see if there is one I'd like to "fold" out.
I also go by certain "rules". Eg: Never touch a Yankees game. Never touch a Cubs game. Never touch a Cards game (for this season of course). Almost always stick to what's been working. Ie: Coors Field games OV, LAD home game UN, especially 10PM EST time.
My standard bets for parlays are betweek $150 and $300, maybe more if I had recently won. So far about 100 days in the season, I am up about 5K. Of all the losing days, I cannot remember a day when I lost more than 1 game. 95% of the time I lose the parlay, it is by 1 game. 3/4, 2/3, etc.
Yesterday I had one of my worst bad beats ever.
Needed LAD Under, Oakland OV, SF UN. SF was 2-0 after 6 and they give up a 4-spot in the 7th with 2 outs. Of ocurse the LA game costed under and the Oakland game errupted.
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