It's like this. There's a script for these games. Who's playing, who's pitching, etc. It's a lot easier/more predictable when you know Cano won't be playing...or if you know that half of the team decided to stay in Clearwater for a few days.
There is money to be made...you just need to meticulously look over all of the details.
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Well...
It's like this. There's a script for these games. Who's playing, who's pitching, etc. It's a lot easier/more predictable when you know Cano won't be playing...or if you know that half of the team decided to stay in Clearwater for a few days.
There is money to be made...you just need to meticulously look over all of the details.
No offense to MM, but I followed him a few years back during pre-season and he killed it. Then when regular season rolled around he went on a pretty bad run. So I'm following him pre-season and I will watch and possibly follow in regular season baha
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No offense to MM, but I followed him a few years back during pre-season and he killed it. Then when regular season rolled around he went on a pretty bad run. So I'm following him pre-season and I will watch and possibly follow in regular season baha
It's like this. There's a script for these games. Who's playing, who's pitching, etc. It's a lot easier/more predictable when you know Cano won't be playing...or if you know that half of the team decided to stay in Clearwater for a few days.
There is money to be made...you just need to meticulously look over all of the details.
MM said it best, certain games offer extreme value where in the regular season it is much tougher to call. Some games will have one team fielding its entire starting lineup and pitching its best pitchers and that team will be going up against a team playing its double A squad. Todays Nationals-Marlins game is a perfect example. The Nationals who many consider to be the best team in baseball versus a double A team. Now nothing is 100% but the odds are good
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Quote Originally Posted by ManassaMauler:
Well...
It's like this. There's a script for these games. Who's playing, who's pitching, etc. It's a lot easier/more predictable when you know Cano won't be playing...or if you know that half of the team decided to stay in Clearwater for a few days.
There is money to be made...you just need to meticulously look over all of the details.
MM said it best, certain games offer extreme value where in the regular season it is much tougher to call. Some games will have one team fielding its entire starting lineup and pitching its best pitchers and that team will be going up against a team playing its double A squad. Todays Nationals-Marlins game is a perfect example. The Nationals who many consider to be the best team in baseball versus a double A team. Now nothing is 100% but the odds are good
The lines can be pretty soft which means good money, i still find pre season MLB much easier than NBA. Example, i decided to blindly bet The Mariners until they lose, it's done nicely so far, i think they could be a surprise this year. I support the White Sox so regularly i wager on them , has also paid handsomely so far. I've been fading the Reds and Yankees, however today i think the Reds may bounce back and get a W, so i'll lay off the game.
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Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:
still waiting for some good answers
The lines can be pretty soft which means good money, i still find pre season MLB much easier than NBA. Example, i decided to blindly bet The Mariners until they lose, it's done nicely so far, i think they could be a surprise this year. I support the White Sox so regularly i wager on them , has also paid handsomely so far. I've been fading the Reds and Yankees, however today i think the Reds may bounce back and get a W, so i'll lay off the game.
You are looking at this from an MLB regular season handicapping angle. You need to look at it from an odds probability angle. Starting pitchers will go 2 or 3 innings this early. Starting lineups will go 2 or 3 at bats. The game is then turned over to AAA and AA players or reserves. If a team looks strong in AAA and AA, should they really be underdogs? Spring training is a different animal and apparently you don't realize that. Granted, the guys betting teams they think will be strong this season are chasing fools gold, especially when laying juice with them, but most aren't betting much and are really just getting their feet wet. The greatest mistake of all though, is believing Spring Training is a reflection of how your team or the big public teams will do during the regular season. One may have absolutely nothing to do with the other.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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You are looking at this from an MLB regular season handicapping angle. You need to look at it from an odds probability angle. Starting pitchers will go 2 or 3 innings this early. Starting lineups will go 2 or 3 at bats. The game is then turned over to AAA and AA players or reserves. If a team looks strong in AAA and AA, should they really be underdogs? Spring training is a different animal and apparently you don't realize that. Granted, the guys betting teams they think will be strong this season are chasing fools gold, especially when laying juice with them, but most aren't betting much and are really just getting their feet wet. The greatest mistake of all though, is believing Spring Training is a reflection of how your team or the big public teams will do during the regular season. One may have absolutely nothing to do with the other.
MM said it best, certain games offer extreme value where in the regular season it is much tougher to call. Some games will have one team fielding its entire starting lineup and pitching its best pitchers and that team will be going up against a team playing its double A squad. Todays Nationals-Marlins game is a perfect example. The Nationals who many consider to be the best team in baseball versus a double A team. Now nothing is 100% but the odds are good
i like The Marlins today
i just get the sense Washington won't bother turning up at all, again nothing is 100%. The Nats value just increased aswell.
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Quote Originally Posted by CoachE:
MM said it best, certain games offer extreme value where in the regular season it is much tougher to call. Some games will have one team fielding its entire starting lineup and pitching its best pitchers and that team will be going up against a team playing its double A squad. Todays Nationals-Marlins game is a perfect example. The Nationals who many consider to be the best team in baseball versus a double A team. Now nothing is 100% but the odds are good
i like The Marlins today
i just get the sense Washington won't bother turning up at all, again nothing is 100%. The Nats value just increased aswell.
i just get the sense Washington won't bother turning up at all, again nothing is 100%. The Nats value just increased aswell.
I wont argue with anyone taking a baseball game at plus money, especially in spring training. But I would say... there are better things to bet on lol.... Its Nationals or no play for me, the talent discrepancy in this game is tremendous.
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Quote Originally Posted by JasonBravo:
i like The Marlins today
i just get the sense Washington won't bother turning up at all, again nothing is 100%. The Nats value just increased aswell.
I wont argue with anyone taking a baseball game at plus money, especially in spring training. But I would say... there are better things to bet on lol.... Its Nationals or no play for me, the talent discrepancy in this game is tremendous.
I wont argue with anyone taking a baseball game at plus money, especially in spring training. But I would say... there are better things to bet on lol.... Its Nationals or no play for me, the talent discrepancy in this game is tremendous.
i wholeheartedly agree, it's purely a value play. My favourite play today would probably be on the Dodgers/ OR Mariners at plus money, i don't know if fishy lines or RLM bogus even exist during Grapefruit league. I'm just assuming they don't .
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Quote Originally Posted by CoachE:
I wont argue with anyone taking a baseball game at plus money, especially in spring training. But I would say... there are better things to bet on lol.... Its Nationals or no play for me, the talent discrepancy in this game is tremendous.
i wholeheartedly agree, it's purely a value play. My favourite play today would probably be on the Dodgers/ OR Mariners at plus money, i don't know if fishy lines or RLM bogus even exist during Grapefruit league. I'm just assuming they don't .
just because you don't do research and don't follow spring training doesn't mean it's a bad bet. Why don't you bet soccer? Same reason, you probably don't follow it nor care for it. Some people take the time to cap spring training, you obviously don't. What's the difference between betting college football compared to tennis compared to preseason mlb compared to euro league basketball, etc? Not much besides your desire and energy to do the research. You still cap situational spots, who's playing, their motivation, the line, the amount of action books take on games is their motivation to pay attention more closely to the lines. They may not pay attention to preseason lines as much knowing they won't get nearly close to the action as tonights NBA games.
Don't be so close minded.
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just because you don't do research and don't follow spring training doesn't mean it's a bad bet. Why don't you bet soccer? Same reason, you probably don't follow it nor care for it. Some people take the time to cap spring training, you obviously don't. What's the difference between betting college football compared to tennis compared to preseason mlb compared to euro league basketball, etc? Not much besides your desire and energy to do the research. You still cap situational spots, who's playing, their motivation, the line, the amount of action books take on games is their motivation to pay attention more closely to the lines. They may not pay attention to preseason lines as much knowing they won't get nearly close to the action as tonights NBA games.
just because you don't do research and don't follow spring training doesn't mean it's a bad bet. Why don't you bet soccer? Same reason, you probably don't follow it nor care for it. Some people take the time to cap spring training, you obviously don't. What's the difference between betting college football compared to tennis compared to preseason mlb compared to euro league basketball, etc? Not much besides your desire and energy to do the research. You still cap situational spots, who's playing, their motivation, the line, the amount of action books take on games is their motivation to pay attention more closely to the lines. They may not pay attention to preseason lines as much knowing they won't get nearly close to the action as tonights NBA games.
Don't be so close minded.
it's Meaningless Baseball that can end in a tie ...
heard a manager last year say they were not intrested in winning games , just trying different things ...
I do NOT bet soccer bc it's boring to watch IMNHO ...and they keep getting caught fixing the games
wanna see if more than 10% of posters can actually win this preseason
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:
just because you don't do research and don't follow spring training doesn't mean it's a bad bet. Why don't you bet soccer? Same reason, you probably don't follow it nor care for it. Some people take the time to cap spring training, you obviously don't. What's the difference between betting college football compared to tennis compared to preseason mlb compared to euro league basketball, etc? Not much besides your desire and energy to do the research. You still cap situational spots, who's playing, their motivation, the line, the amount of action books take on games is their motivation to pay attention more closely to the lines. They may not pay attention to preseason lines as much knowing they won't get nearly close to the action as tonights NBA games.
Don't be so close minded.
it's Meaningless Baseball that can end in a tie ...
heard a manager last year say they were not intrested in winning games , just trying different things ...
I do NOT bet soccer bc it's boring to watch IMNHO ...and they keep getting caught fixing the games
wanna see if more than 10% of posters can actually win this preseason
I'll chime in here with my thoughts... and to start, I'll make it clear that I do not bet on Spring Training. That being said, I have nothing against the guys who are taking shots at it.
I have a tough time believing people saying they "kill" spring training or that they have so much info on it that they feel they have an advantage over the sportsbook. I've kept quiet for many years when friends tell me that it's as simple as identifying who is playing and who is not... do you not think the books know this info too?
As someone who's played very high level baseball I can speak from experience and tell you that guys at Spring Training really could care less about the score. Pitchers are working on new pitches, hitters are working on hitting the ball certain directions, etc. Spring Training comes down to guessing at a lot of variables that could effect the game and long term success with it is very difficult (hence why the best handicappers I know don't play on it or play on it for .25/.50 units/game)
By all means, if you are want to gamble why not bet on it? Gambling makes the games more interesting and this is no exception. But stop with the comments on how soft these lines are and how you pick up 25 units during this time or whatever. I'll catch you all opening day (though I will be watching a ton of ST. Until then I'm hoping to discuss baseball with whoever wants to.
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I'll chime in here with my thoughts... and to start, I'll make it clear that I do not bet on Spring Training. That being said, I have nothing against the guys who are taking shots at it.
I have a tough time believing people saying they "kill" spring training or that they have so much info on it that they feel they have an advantage over the sportsbook. I've kept quiet for many years when friends tell me that it's as simple as identifying who is playing and who is not... do you not think the books know this info too?
As someone who's played very high level baseball I can speak from experience and tell you that guys at Spring Training really could care less about the score. Pitchers are working on new pitches, hitters are working on hitting the ball certain directions, etc. Spring Training comes down to guessing at a lot of variables that could effect the game and long term success with it is very difficult (hence why the best handicappers I know don't play on it or play on it for .25/.50 units/game)
By all means, if you are want to gamble why not bet on it? Gambling makes the games more interesting and this is no exception. But stop with the comments on how soft these lines are and how you pick up 25 units during this time or whatever. I'll catch you all opening day (though I will be watching a ton of ST. Until then I'm hoping to discuss baseball with whoever wants to.
I'll chime in here with my thoughts... and to start, I'll make it clear that I do not bet on Spring Training. That being said, I have nothing against the guys who are taking shots at it.
I have a tough time believing people saying they "kill" spring training or that they have so much info on it that they feel they have an advantage over the sportsbook. I've kept quiet for many years when friends tell me that it's as simple as identifying who is playing and who is not... do you not think the books know this info too?
As someone who's played very high level baseball I can speak from experience and tell you that guys at Spring Training really could care less about the score. Pitchers are working on new pitches, hitters are working on hitting the ball certain directions, etc. Spring Training comes down to guessing at a lot of variables that could effect the game and long term success with it is very difficult (hence why the best handicappers I know don't play on it or play on it for .25/.50 units/game)
By all means, if you are want to gamble why not bet on it? Gambling makes the games more interesting and this is no exception. But stop with the comments on how soft these lines are and how you pick up 25 units during this time or whatever. I'll catch you all opening day (though I will be watching a ton of ST. Until then I'm hoping to discuss baseball with whoever wants to.
lines are released the night before, while the majority of lineups are not. at least to the public. not sure how much inside info the books have.
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Quote Originally Posted by BennyGee:
I'll chime in here with my thoughts... and to start, I'll make it clear that I do not bet on Spring Training. That being said, I have nothing against the guys who are taking shots at it.
I have a tough time believing people saying they "kill" spring training or that they have so much info on it that they feel they have an advantage over the sportsbook. I've kept quiet for many years when friends tell me that it's as simple as identifying who is playing and who is not... do you not think the books know this info too?
As someone who's played very high level baseball I can speak from experience and tell you that guys at Spring Training really could care less about the score. Pitchers are working on new pitches, hitters are working on hitting the ball certain directions, etc. Spring Training comes down to guessing at a lot of variables that could effect the game and long term success with it is very difficult (hence why the best handicappers I know don't play on it or play on it for .25/.50 units/game)
By all means, if you are want to gamble why not bet on it? Gambling makes the games more interesting and this is no exception. But stop with the comments on how soft these lines are and how you pick up 25 units during this time or whatever. I'll catch you all opening day (though I will be watching a ton of ST. Until then I'm hoping to discuss baseball with whoever wants to.
lines are released the night before, while the majority of lineups are not. at least to the public. not sure how much inside info the books have.
I can guarantee they aren't setting lines without having some idea of a lineup. No chance they just toss darts and post numbers, otherwise you would see big line movements when lineups are released.
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I can guarantee they aren't setting lines without having some idea of a lineup. No chance they just toss darts and post numbers, otherwise you would see big line movements when lineups are released.
it's Meaningless Baseball that can end in a tie ...
heard a manager last year say they were not intrested in winning games , just trying different things ...
I do NOT bet soccer bc it's boring to watch IMNHO ...and they keep getting caught fixing the games
wanna see if more than 10% of posters can actually win this preseason
It's meaningless to you. It's not meaningless to the guys who are trying to make the roster. Or the cappers who are taking the time to analyze the rosters and young, un-hyped up talent. It's baseball without the media's lopsided views. It's not meaningless to me when I know the manager of a team is planning to test a pitchers strikezone, making him throw meatballs to the batters etc. As with most games, you just have to understand what's going on in the game. To each their own.
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Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:
it's Meaningless Baseball that can end in a tie ...
heard a manager last year say they were not intrested in winning games , just trying different things ...
I do NOT bet soccer bc it's boring to watch IMNHO ...and they keep getting caught fixing the games
wanna see if more than 10% of posters can actually win this preseason
It's meaningless to you. It's not meaningless to the guys who are trying to make the roster. Or the cappers who are taking the time to analyze the rosters and young, un-hyped up talent. It's baseball without the media's lopsided views. It's not meaningless to me when I know the manager of a team is planning to test a pitchers strikezone, making him throw meatballs to the batters etc. As with most games, you just have to understand what's going on in the game. To each their own.
If you are a bad handicapper, you want to gamble on events with more luck involved.
If you are a good handicapper, you want less luck.
Preseason baseball has more luck because you have huge rosters and a lot of guys can get at bats and the AAA guys are trying their hardest while the MLB guys may not be motivated. But the guys trying hard might press too hard and not play well. Or the guy with a guarenteed roster spot may relax and play great, or the coach may ask him to work on stuff he is not good at, like hitting the ball to the opposite field.
But, if you study the rosters and find a hot or cold team you can probably eke out a small profit.
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If you are a bad handicapper, you want to gamble on events with more luck involved.
If you are a good handicapper, you want less luck.
Preseason baseball has more luck because you have huge rosters and a lot of guys can get at bats and the AAA guys are trying their hardest while the MLB guys may not be motivated. But the guys trying hard might press too hard and not play well. Or the guy with a guarenteed roster spot may relax and play great, or the coach may ask him to work on stuff he is not good at, like hitting the ball to the opposite field.
But, if you study the rosters and find a hot or cold team you can probably eke out a small profit.
Today it was the Astros putrid lineup against the overwhelming public favorite Blue Jays, with their best and world beating lineup. . I didn't have either side, but just by the odds available I tagged the Blue Jays "unplayable" Why would anyone in his right mind lay -159 on the Jays and play for 63 cents on the dollar of risk? Yet, 54% of the players in the Covers pre season contest did. Monopoly money, so they play the big, bad favorite that just cannot lose. Yeah, right. Astros 10-1. I will grant you wagering like that is foolish, but not every game at every price is foolish, as always, it is a matter of probability versus payback, just like craps, roulette, or blackjack, where the wager is made before the ammunition is known. There are wise and unwise wagers versus the given odds. Some folks know that, others don't.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Today it was the Astros putrid lineup against the overwhelming public favorite Blue Jays, with their best and world beating lineup. . I didn't have either side, but just by the odds available I tagged the Blue Jays "unplayable" Why would anyone in his right mind lay -159 on the Jays and play for 63 cents on the dollar of risk? Yet, 54% of the players in the Covers pre season contest did. Monopoly money, so they play the big, bad favorite that just cannot lose. Yeah, right. Astros 10-1. I will grant you wagering like that is foolish, but not every game at every price is foolish, as always, it is a matter of probability versus payback, just like craps, roulette, or blackjack, where the wager is made before the ammunition is known. There are wise and unwise wagers versus the given odds. Some folks know that, others don't.
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