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Reverse Line Movement System 9/18/17 MLB Picks

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Hello,  I am going to start a new thread where I will make my picks based on RLM.  For today so far we have the smart money coming in on:

Baltimore +112 vs Boston
https://prntscr.com/gmlt4j

San Diego -150 vs Arizona
https://prntscr.com/gmlxiy

Philadelphia +280 vs Los Angeles Dodgers
https://prntscr.com/gmm0co

My risk management strategy is to risk 5% of my capital on each wager, keeping risk constant to fully exploit our edge.  This worked very well yesterday in football so I decided to give it a shot in baseball.  Good Luck


 
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Posted: #2
I wrote the wrong ml on San Diego Padres, it should be +134
 
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Posted: #3
I don't know what is wrong with me lol,  The picks still stand but I got the lines mixed up.

Baltimore -112 vs Boston
https://prntscr.com/gmlt4j

San Diego +137 vs Arizona
https://prntscr.com/gmlxiy

Philadelphia +280 vs Los Angeles Dodgers
https://prntscr.com/gmm0co


These are the correct lines and picks  :)
 
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Posted: #4
adding to watch list:

Pittsburgh -109 vs Milwaukee
https://prntscr.com/gmo0bf
Going to wait a few hours to let the public fully come in before making any big decisions.

 
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Posted: #5
Thanks for the info bud
 
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Posted: #6
Gl trader
 
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Posted: #7
Yikes.   Pivetta over Kershaw?   After the Dodgers got fully humiliated last night against the nats?  
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by fadeaway123:

Yikes.   Pivetta over Kershaw?   After the Dodgers got fully humiliated last night against the nats?  


I am just placing my bet based on line movement vs bet %, specifically when the lines moves in they opposite  direction as would make sense given the bet % .  This is an indicator that sharp money is coming in big on the other side of the public.  I do better with systems they are completely objective like this.  Sure there are always cases where alternative data or subjective opinion will suggest a different pick and will be right but when a system already has a proven edge typically such changes to the system do more harm than good over time, especially if you are not consistent in your approach to adding more data.  So you could be very right about the dogers coming in hot tonight but to change my system and not take a pick that otherwise perfectly fits the system would be a disservice. 
 
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Posted: #9
https://prntscr.com/gmrox5

10:37 AM: Sharp line move detected against Milwaukee
10:40 AM: The smart money is coming on Pittsburgh
 
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Posted: #10
Line started at -109, there was reverse line movement witch indicating big money coming in against the public which is what drove it to 100+  Then the public drove it back to where it is now.
 
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Posted: #11
your basing your bets off other peoples good luck

 
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Posted: #12
Over could be slightly better for Dodgers. i will not get surprised at watching friggin Dodgers' comical performance
 
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Posted: #13
How about them Phillies?? lol


 
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Posted: #14
https://prntscr.com/gmuxg4

08:57 AM: Sharp line move detected against Arizona
09:05 AM: The smart money is coming on San Diego
06:49 PM: Sharp line move detected against Arizona
09:50 PM: Sharp line move detected against Arizona


Go Padres!!
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyTeam7:

your basing your bets off other peoples good luck




Using reverse line movement as a way to track smart money and fade the public is one of the most effective strategies in sports betting.

https://www.sportsinsights.com/images/downloads/Sports_Insights_Make_Smarter_Bets.pdf
 
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Posted: #16
How does it know it's sharp?  What is considered sharp?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #17
If 90% of the wagers are for dogers for example you would expect the bookie to make them more expensive to play as they try to equal the money on both sides of the game. If its making big moves in they opposite direction than you can be sure big money is coming in on the other side against the public.  I look for moves of 8 points or more..  This is a clear sign the sharps are making huge bets against the public.  The reason I know its the sharps is because to move the line 8 points or more against a 90% public bet takes someone on the other side is betting 30k-50k or more against the public and squares do not typically make those kinds of wagers.  Read the MIT study i linked to and look up reverse line movement.
 
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Posted: #18
The god damn Oriels had this game locked up until they game up 6 runs in 1 inning.  They should have ta/en the pitcher out way earlier.
 
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Posted: #19
In NFL it's the same but I look for ML moves 14 points or higher..

Padres up 3 in the first inning  :)
 
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Posted: #20
Baltimore blew that damn game, it was theirs to win... If Padres win, I'll be 2-2  and up 10%..
 
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Posted: #21
Baltimore -112 vs Boston   L - %5
San Diego +137 vs Arizona  W + 6.85%
Philadelphia +280 vs Los Angeles Dodgers W +14%
Pittsburgh Pirates  +109 vs Arizona DB L - 5%


2-2 Risking 5% of capital on each pick for a net gain of 10.86%    Still feeling salty about the Oriels blowing that huge lead and then blowing it again in extra innings.  They should have taken out the pitcher before letting it slip away like that...  I'll be back tomorrow with some more picks based on this system.  Lets kill the book


 
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Posted: #22
Your info is from zcode right?
 
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Posted: #23
I prefer sportsinsight because they give the data on multiple books.
 
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Posted: #24
https://www.sportsinsights.com/mlb/
 
 
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Posted: #25
Stocktrader, could you re-post the MIT link? thanks
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