I once again have my head up today after a very difficult Friday. I still know that my capping is correct and so are the plays so I know this thing will get turned around any day now.
There are only two more days until the All-Star Break so I'm banking on some positive gains to go into the break on a positive note. I wouldn't advise tailing until I get hot again which will happen soon enough. In the meantime, I'm just putting in the nitty gritty work and looking to turn this around. Good luck to all.
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Hey everyone,
I once again have my head up today after a very difficult Friday. I still know that my capping is correct and so are the plays so I know this thing will get turned around any day now.
There are only two more days until the All-Star Break so I'm banking on some positive gains to go into the break on a positive note. I wouldn't advise tailing until I get hot again which will happen soon enough. In the meantime, I'm just putting in the nitty gritty work and looking to turn this around. Good luck to all.
lana BOL today, I am tailing, todays the day lets make some , I'm still way up from when I started following you. Thanks for all the work you put into capping and sharing with us.
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lana BOL today, I am tailing, todays the day lets make some , I'm still way up from when I started following you. Thanks for all the work you put into capping and sharing with us.
its gonna be what its gonna be. the key word boys and girls is money management. If the loot is managed properly one can survive the tough times and go large when the wave of winning is fat and full. I am with you.
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its gonna be what its gonna be. the key word boys and girls is money management. If the loot is managed properly one can survive the tough times and go large when the wave of winning is fat and full. I am with you.
Lan, the advice that I can offer you is that when you are struggling, try to isolate your plays to just 3-5 of your strongest. I think you played 12 games yesterday and with the amount of chalk that you lay, a poor day will get you crushed because you have about 30 units in play. 7-5 loses money, and when you are struggling, 7-5 isn't easy. GL and get em back for Nugget damn it!!!!
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Lan, the advice that I can offer you is that when you are struggling, try to isolate your plays to just 3-5 of your strongest. I think you played 12 games yesterday and with the amount of chalk that you lay, a poor day will get you crushed because you have about 30 units in play. 7-5 loses money, and when you are struggling, 7-5 isn't easy. GL and get em back for Nugget damn it!!!!
I have a question to Lan or anyone else that can speak from experience with sound reasonable mind. I understand that the cubs are 36-11 at home. that is more than 3:1. The book is -255. with the cubs being so heavily favored at home, I can see the line. My question is about risk and long term loot. Long term is it more financially advantageous to go with the RL vs the ML when the ML is > -200? It makes me uneasy to risk 2.55 dollars to win one. I am not asking about this game in particular, but rather about the overall picture. Piss on hunches and "feelings". To me this is about money. Nothing else. Nothing more. I am wodering if long term has anyone crunched the numbers or have any data or articles for me to read about going with the RL over the ML in general and when the ML is >-200. Please advise.
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I have a question to Lan or anyone else that can speak from experience with sound reasonable mind. I understand that the cubs are 36-11 at home. that is more than 3:1. The book is -255. with the cubs being so heavily favored at home, I can see the line. My question is about risk and long term loot. Long term is it more financially advantageous to go with the RL vs the ML when the ML is > -200? It makes me uneasy to risk 2.55 dollars to win one. I am not asking about this game in particular, but rather about the overall picture. Piss on hunches and "feelings". To me this is about money. Nothing else. Nothing more. I am wodering if long term has anyone crunched the numbers or have any data or articles for me to read about going with the RL over the ML in general and when the ML is >-200. Please advise.
a 200 ml fave is comparable to a 6 pt fave in NBA is it unbeatable? Hardly the case just look at yesterday with boston. You will find that 80% of time those heavy faves are on public teams...sox,yanks,cubs,mets,det....the only way to make $$$ long term on those is to cut your juice and play run lines. Having said that often those big faves do not deserve to be big faves so you really have to crunch the #'s...teams in the top 10 in runs(when they win ) win 80% by run line so it is probably worth taking a RL shot if you like em
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a 200 ml fave is comparable to a 6 pt fave in NBA is it unbeatable? Hardly the case just look at yesterday with boston. You will find that 80% of time those heavy faves are on public teams...sox,yanks,cubs,mets,det....the only way to make $$$ long term on those is to cut your juice and play run lines. Having said that often those big faves do not deserve to be big faves so you really have to crunch the #'s...teams in the top 10 in runs(when they win ) win 80% by run line so it is probably worth taking a RL shot if you like em
Thanks for all the support, guys. I always remember who is with me during my slumps and it means a lot.
GooRoo -- I have considered that but I have no reason to do that right now. All signs are pointing to emerging out of this slump with the current plays so I am just gonna gut this out.
Jalein -- For my own purposes, it has proven more profitable to take the money line than the run line on heavy favs. The analysis I conducted was on teams -150 or better though so I haven't isolated specifically for -200. Keep in mind though that the oddsmakers are real sharp in keeping the run line perfectly correlated with the moneyline overall. I haven't seen any numbers but I bet if you'd look at the last 1000 -200 favs and added up one side doing the ML and the other doing the RL, you would be around the same units gained/loss. I know it's hard to stomach juice sometimes but it's the play that makes this easy/hard. Whenever I play real heavy favs, I have a pretty strong indication that they will hit way better than even the line indicates or else I'm not touching those games. Remember, it's only juice if you lose.
itsbadlands -- Sorry, man.
jules -- Well, human nature is to see the payout and our eyes get big, but if you blindly bet these plays, you would be around even money long term. Well, actually you would have lost juice, so even worse. Any play at any price good or bad depends on the value of that specific play.
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Thanks for all the support, guys. I always remember who is with me during my slumps and it means a lot.
GooRoo -- I have considered that but I have no reason to do that right now. All signs are pointing to emerging out of this slump with the current plays so I am just gonna gut this out.
Jalein -- For my own purposes, it has proven more profitable to take the money line than the run line on heavy favs. The analysis I conducted was on teams -150 or better though so I haven't isolated specifically for -200. Keep in mind though that the oddsmakers are real sharp in keeping the run line perfectly correlated with the moneyline overall. I haven't seen any numbers but I bet if you'd look at the last 1000 -200 favs and added up one side doing the ML and the other doing the RL, you would be around the same units gained/loss. I know it's hard to stomach juice sometimes but it's the play that makes this easy/hard. Whenever I play real heavy favs, I have a pretty strong indication that they will hit way better than even the line indicates or else I'm not touching those games. Remember, it's only juice if you lose.
itsbadlands -- Sorry, man.
jules -- Well, human nature is to see the payout and our eyes get big, but if you blindly bet these plays, you would be around even money long term. Well, actually you would have lost juice, so even worse. Any play at any price good or bad depends on the value of that specific play.
I'm no expert and Lanny is the man here! But over the last 2 months when public opinon is over 70% and the money line is above 191 the favorite has won only around 30%. Lets hope the Cubs win by 1 today
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I'm no expert and Lanny is the man here! But over the last 2 months when public opinon is over 70% and the money line is above 191 the favorite has won only around 30%. Lets hope the Cubs win by 1 today
I've been following your plays closely and I wish I had the bankroll to tail you but since I can't play that many games a day I never know which ones to choose. Anyway, gl today even though I've got my money on a Yanks/Cubs parlay.
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I've been following your plays closely and I wish I had the bankroll to tail you but since I can't play that many games a day I never know which ones to choose. Anyway, gl today even though I've got my money on a Yanks/Cubs parlay.
, I'm still way up from when I started following you. Thanks for all the work you put into capping and sharing with us.
GL!
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