Posted:
#76
i see value on the rays tonight silly, do you?
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Saturday Afternoon - MLB
Posted:
#77
Quote Originally Posted by Qncyk1:
where do you find a pitchers FIP and xFIP? is there a website that gives daily updates?
you are a great asset to covers, si1ly. what some people dont understand is that your units won are done on a flat rate system which is far more respectable than a variable betting system.
I use fangraphs and baseball-reference primarily for sabrmetric data collection and analysis. They update daily. And of course, you can find all this data and much much more in my breakdown sheets - also updated daily.
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Posted:
#84
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
'11-12 MLB: 69-40-4 (63.3%) +23.32u
'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL: 42-35 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u
'11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u
'11-12 NBA-P: 23-20 (53.2%) +2.30u
'11-12 NHL-P: 2-1 (66.6%) +1.10u
4:05 EST - Los Angeles Dodgers (+100)
4:05 EST - Boston Red Sox (+185)
well done Si1ly
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Posted:
#86
4:05 EST - Los Angeles Dodgers (+100) 
4:05 EST - Boston Red Sox (+185)
13-3 last 6 plays. Played 5 underdogs in a row and cashed on 4 of them. I'm playing an average line of -112 and with these two wins my ROI just eclipsed the 20% mark (it's actually now at 21.0%). Risked 124.32 units and won 26.17. This is without question, the most consistent season I've ever had betting. Took a lot of patience to grind through a poor NBA season, but a the gambling gods would have it, I've been rewarded generously for my hard work and perseverance.
'11-12 MLB: 71-40-4 (64.0%) +26.17u
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Posted:
#87
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
4:05 EST - Los Angeles Dodgers (+100)
4:05 EST - Boston Red Sox (+185)
13-3 last 6 plays. Played 5 underdogs in a row and cashed on 4 of them. I'm playing an average line of -112 and with these two wins my ROI just eclipsed the 20% mark (it's actually now at 21.0%). Risked 124.32 units and won 26.17. This is without question, the most consistent season I've ever had betting. Took a lot of patience to grind through a poor NBA season, but a the gambling gods would have it, I've been rewarded generously for my hard work and perseverance.
'11-12 MLB: 71-40-4 (64.0%) +26.17u
2 wins but both both dogs... might as well be 4 wins
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Posted:
#93
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
4:05 EST - Los Angeles Dodgers (+100)
4:05 EST - Boston Red Sox (+185)
13-3 last 6 plays. Played 5 underdogs in a row and cashed on 4 of them. I'm playing an average line of -112 and with these two wins my ROI just eclipsed the 20% mark (it's actually now at 21.0%). Risked 124.32 units and won 26.17. This is without question, the most consistent season I've ever had betting. Took a lot of patience to grind through a poor NBA season, but a the gambling gods would have it, I've been rewarded generously for my hard work and perseverance.
'11-12 MLB: 71-40-4 (64.0%) +26.17u
Congrats man, you definitely deserve it. Thanks for all you do. I was curious about your NBA season, actually... I noticed quite a few solid NBA cappers struggled last season. Do you attribute it to the condensed schedule, and do you think it was a one-off?
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Posted:
#94
Quote Originally Posted by Top_5_Guy:
Congrats man, you definitely deserve it. Thanks for all you do. I was curious about your NBA season, actually... I noticed quite a few solid NBA cappers struggled last season. Do you attribute it to the condensed schedule, and do you think it was a one-off?
Congrats man, you definitely deserve it. Thanks for all you do. I was curious about your NBA season, actually... I noticed quite a few solid NBA cappers struggled last season. Do you attribute it to the condensed schedule, and do you think it was a one-off?
Well, I don't think I changed my style much if-at-all. But you never know. Maybe I was just making bad bets? Maybe I had a little more bad luck than usual?
I do think the condensed schedule exaggerated the intangible angles - and in basketball motivation plays a huge role in games. I have a harder time picking up on the intangibles because I can become overly fixated on the numerical analytics. Looking back on the season, I think more teams phoned it in even before the games started - and for any number of reasons. This doesn't happen as often in full regular season since practice time and days off help keep athletes prepared, focused, motivated and energized. When players play to the best of their ability, they tend to follow the numbers more closely and the outcomes are easier to predict. That's why my personal record is so strong in post-season gambling. In the playoffs, everyone plays their hardest in every game. But if you look at my record, I basically hit 50% on the season and I ended up losing the juice and a little more. That's a record representational of a gambler, not an investor. With the motivational angles holding more weight last season, Vegas and those with inside information had a wider margin of advantage over both sharps and squares. The '11-'12 season was like betting into a market with 50 cent lines. The more wagers you place, the more Vegas has you by the balls. I do expect better results in '12-'13 of course, but I will be going into the season with a greater appreciation and awareness of the intangible angles that influence the regular season.
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