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Saturday Afternoon - MLB

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:

Hey si1ly, why didn't you take the Dodgers at -5.5 today?  You missed out on some crazy + juice and obviously don't know what you're doing.

Oh, I did.  And I parlayed it with the Red Sox -2.5 for a cool +15000.   
 
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Posted: #52
I'm passing on Cleveland.  Looks like a good play on paper, but I'm going to stick with the horses that are already racing today.  Something about that line doesn't seem right.  I may be way off base, but I've got a funny feeling Minnesota makes it a game.
 
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Posted: #53
Pasteur OBVIOUSLY AN IDIOT!
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

I'm passing on Cleveland.  Looks like a good play on paper, but I'm going to stick with the horses that are already racing today.  Something about that line doesn't seem right.  I may be way off base, but I've got a funny feeling Minnesota makes it a game.


You sure you don't want to join me at the cashier window for that one?
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by gbpackman:

Pasteur OBVIOUSLY AN IDIOT!


I had faith in si1ly's ability to recognize sarcasm...
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:



You sure you don't want to join me at the cashier window for that one?

Naw, but I'll stop by when you're collecting.. first round on you of course.  
 
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Posted: #57
si1ly, your space doesn't have a "friends" icon. Do you get 5000 msgs./week?
 
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Posted: #58
si1ly - Do you see any value in Rockies as a live dog?  I got em at +140.  Friedrich underrated and big HFA in Denver.  Reds hit lefties, but Helton back, which adds to their offense.  

Also, what do you think of Padres/Fins over 8.5?  Two terrible pitchers going.  Think MIA puts up 3-4 even with their recent woes.  Padres put up at least that IMO.  Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #59

Hi MASTER si1ly...came back from studying to see if you are playing anything else tonight. Well, it does not look like it so have a wonderful evening/night and THANK YOU!!!

 

 

 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by TruckerMan:

si1ly - Do you see any value in Rockies as a live dog?  I got em at +140.  Friedrich underrated and big HFA in Denver.  Reds hit lefties, but Helton back, which adds to their offense.  

Also, what do you think of Padres/Fins over 8.5?  Two terrible pitchers going.  Think MIA puts up 3-4 even with their recent woes.  Padres put up at least that IMO.  Thoughts?

If I had to pick a side on the games you just mentioned, I would be on the Rockies and on the over in Miami.  But both of these plays are a little too close to fair value to justify a play in my book and I'm at the point in the season that I'm trying to be extremely selective.  I think you'd be on the sharp side in both of those games though so I like them both.  Good luck with what you decide to play.
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by VietBlonde:

Hi MASTER si1ly...came back from studying to see if you are playing anything else tonight. Well, it does not look like it so have a wonderful evening/night and THANK YOU!!!

 

 


Same to you.  Good luck with the studying.. I know you're putting a lot of time and effort into it.  You deserve to do well.
 
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Posted: #62
Dodgers win 10-0.  Can't lose any money today.  If the Red Sox can pull off the upset, I'll have myself a nice night.  12-3 last 15 plays and 3-1 on 4 underdog wagers in a row... let's make it 4-1.

 
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Posted: #63
one down dodger$$$$$$$$$
 
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Posted: #64
Icons are used for sarcasm. I apologize to you for calling you an idiot. You can't tell these days with all the idiots on covers.
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by gbpackman:

si1ly, your space doesn't have a "friends" icon. Do you get 5000 msgs./week?

I'm not sure what you mean?  I have the "friends" box checked off in myspace preferences.  I don't get too many pm's, most people feel comfortable asking questions right in my threads.. besides, it's usually better for everyone to hear the question and answer - we all benefit from exchanging knowledge and opinion.
 
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Posted: #66
Great bets.  You're the man.  I still didn't like your Cobb play yesterday but I can't argue with your overall results.
 
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Posted: #67
  AGON!  
 
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Posted: #68
Alex Gonzalez has CC bent over his knee right now
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by agarcia34:

Dodgers throwing a interesting line up out there today with Ethier batting second hopefully Billingsly can build off his last start.

They looked great today.  If they keep playing ball like they are right now, they'll make the Giants awfully nervous in August.
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


I'm not sure what you mean?  I have the "friends" box checked off in myspace preferences.  I don't get too many pm's, most people feel comfortable asking questions right in my threads.. besides, it's usually better for everyone to hear the question and answer - we all benefit from exchanging knowledge and opinion.

Must be my computer! Never mind. I really want to learn more about Sabermetrics. That's all.

 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by gbpackman:

Must be my computer! Never mind. I really want to learn more about Sabermetrics. That's all.


https://www.fangraphs.com/library/   <<<< In your free time, glance through these definitions.  I recommend reading through all of it quickly once and then going back over anything you find important or instrumental to your handicapping ideologies. 


 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by gbpackman:

Must be my computer! Never mind. I really want to learn more about Sabermetrics. That's all.


Also, here's a thread I ran here in the MLB forum this preseason about SABRmetrics.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101278369
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


This is the equation for FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP-IBB))-(2*K))/IP + constant

HR - Home Run
BB - Walk
HBP - Hit by Pitch
IBB - Intentional Walk
K - Strikeout
IP - Innings Pitched
Constant - About 3.20

Here's the basic story behind FIP.  About a dozen years ago it was discovered that pitchers had very little control year to year over how balls that went in play were fielded.  This is measured using BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play).  ERA is highly dependent upon this statistic since the amount of runs earned is a direct result of how well the defense behind a pitcher fields the balls that are put in play and handles the runners that get on base.  To avoid this problem, FIP was developed. 

If you take a look at the FIP formula, you'll see that the only metrics in it are home runs, walks and strikeouts.  These are also the only things a pitcher can really control (to a reasonable degree).  These metrics are also weighted in the formula to account for how much an impact they have on the score (Home Runs are multiplied by a factor of 13, Walks by a factor of 3, and Strikeouts by a factor of 2).  The constant is added to bring the metric onto the same scale as ERA.  This constant changes from year to year but usually comes in around 3.20.  You'll notice that some pitchers have FIP numbers below 3.20.  That means they have more weighted strikeouts than weighted walks plus weighted home runs.  FIP does a pretty good job measuring a pitchers skill whether they pitch for contact or pitch for strikeouts.  Contact pitchers have fewer strikeouts but they also have proportionately fewer walks and home runs.  Strikeout pitchers have more strikeouts but they're also more likely to walk a batter and give up a home run.  It's been found that FIP is a better predictor of future performance than ERA.

xFIP uses the same formula as FIP except it replaces the specific pitchers home run rate with an expected home run rate.  This is calculated by taking a league constant home run to fly ball ratio and multiplying that by the pitchers fly ball rate.  Since home run rates tend to fluctuate significantly from year to year, xFIP attempts to remove this variable by replacing it with a pitchers expected home run rate - a value that tends to be more constant over time.  xFIP is a slightly more refined version of FIP and it really is just a continuation of the pursuit to develop a number that is on the same scale as ERA that only looks at the variables a pitcher can control.

And what does FIP stand for you might ask?  Well it's an acronym that describes exactly what it sets out to accomplish.  Fielding Independent Pitching.  (x stands for Expected)


Here's an excerpt from the SABRmetric thread where I explain the history of FIP and xFIP and how it's used as an advanced stat.
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

I'm passing on Cleveland.  Looks like a good play on paper, but I'm going to stick with the horses that are already racing today.  Something about that line doesn't seem right.  I may be way off base, but I've got a funny feeling Minnesota makes it a game.


Your crystal ball serves you well! 
 
 
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Posted: #75

where do you find a pitchers FIP and xFIP? is there a website that gives daily updates?

you are a great asset to covers, si1ly. what some people dont understand is that your units won are done on a flat rate system which is far more respectable than a variable betting system.

 

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