What up everyone!?
I mentioned that I was apprehensive about this game b/c the previous Darvish/Yamamoto match-up is my only loss in the playoffs.
However, after taking a hard look again, something jumped out at me. Yu Darvish's underlying advanced metrics suggest that he's more hittable than his ERA indicates. Against the Dodgers, his career post season xFIP is 5.33, his career SI-ERA is 5.26, and his fly ball rate is 50%. In fact, before the last game got out of hand; Mookie Betts was robbed of a HR, Tommy Edman lined into a double play with two men on, and Fernando Tatis robbed (10% catch rate) an RBI double. While the box score shows a 1.29 ERA, Darvish's xFIP was closer to 4. Last but not least, he's pitching on short rest. Padres are 1-6 when Darvish is on 4 days rest and his ERA is north of 6.
On the other side, we get another look at the $325 million dollar man, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He was bad on opening day in Korea and he was horrendous in his first post season start. However, it's still too early to think the moment is too big for him. His advanced metrics show a 2.21 xFIP, 2.16 SI-ERA, and a fly ball rate of just 26%. These numbers suggest elite skill and command. Granted, the sample size in MLB is smaller than I'd like. Although, if you look at his Nippon league numbers, you see more of the same. I think he's due for some positive regression toward the mean. If not, he's going to have a very short leash and I love what I've seen from the LA Pen. In this series, they have not allowed a run over 12 consecutive innings of work.
The Padres had their chance to close this out and they couldn't do it. I think they'll be tight tonight, Darvish's luck runs out, Yamamoto pitches to his ability, LA's pen shows up again, and the Dodgers win.
I'm on the Dodgers at -138.
Enjoy the game and BOL 
I’m riding with you Kaufee 
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