Just a little bit about me, I have been in the industry as a bettor for over 15 years, being cut off from 7 locals and red-flagged by Vegas has turned me against them and trying to spread the knowledge. I will post plays on here for everyone to enjoy, read and breakdown. Would love to have good conversations about games, not the typical bs that goes on in some threads.
I have built an analytical system for MLB which will produce #'s for me tomorrow, I will be sure to post them tomorrow. Until then, what are people's thoughts for this game?
Line is currently at Yankees -140 and Nationals +122
Cheers!
Analytic O
The Book Breaker
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hello Everyone,
Just a little bit about me, I have been in the industry as a bettor for over 15 years, being cut off from 7 locals and red-flagged by Vegas has turned me against them and trying to spread the knowledge. I will post plays on here for everyone to enjoy, read and breakdown. Would love to have good conversations about games, not the typical bs that goes on in some threads.
I have built an analytical system for MLB which will produce #'s for me tomorrow, I will be sure to post them tomorrow. Until then, what are people's thoughts for this game?
Line is currently at Yankees -140 and Nationals +122
Interesting how the line opens at -136 and it's staying around there...a lot of movement on the wagering. One of my guys is telling me serious money is on Cole and the Yankees. A lot will change by Thursday's gametime.
Stay Tuned for updates
0
Interesting how the line opens at -136 and it's staying around there...a lot of movement on the wagering. One of my guys is telling me serious money is on Cole and the Yankees. A lot will change by Thursday's gametime.
Will you be able to tell us which side you are taking and why?
Definitely, I will be posting an official write up and play for this game probably Thursday morning. I always support wagering a little before a game because so many factors cause the line to change, the money to change and you don't want to be on the wrong side.
You may get a worse line sometimes BUT over the long run, it'll save you from betting too early and regretting it. Remember, a large majority of wagers don't happen until 1-2 hours before gametime, especially the big money.
1
Quote Originally Posted by tbook123:
Will you be able to tell us which side you are taking and why?
Definitely, I will be posting an official write up and play for this game probably Thursday morning. I always support wagering a little before a game because so many factors cause the line to change, the money to change and you don't want to be on the wrong side.
You may get a worse line sometimes BUT over the long run, it'll save you from betting too early and regretting it. Remember, a large majority of wagers don't happen until 1-2 hours before gametime, especially the big money.
I plan on making one bet per day , & I'd love to discuss it w/you prior to betting. I had a good year last year playing this way . I especially like 1st 5 bets , sides & totals. I also plan to post my picks so i'll always be wiling to listen .There are other serious handicappers & they'll read your posts . You'll hear from them. I'll talk w/you in the A M.
pollockanesian
1
I plan on making one bet per day , & I'd love to discuss it w/you prior to betting. I had a good year last year playing this way . I especially like 1st 5 bets , sides & totals. I also plan to post my picks so i'll always be wiling to listen .There are other serious handicappers & they'll read your posts . You'll hear from them. I'll talk w/you in the A M.
Welcome back Baseball! We have a great match up between the Yankees and Nationals to start the season. Some of these plays might be hard to swallow for you but you will learn to trust me and my selections. Let us first look at some of the moves over the off-season for each team and then onto the match up and lines-maker breakdown.
New York Yankees:
They return a power swinging lineup headlined by Stanton, Judge and Torres. They signed Gerrit Cole to a monster $324 million dollar contract. Coming into Opening Day, they are going to be missing some key pieces to their lineup such as Chapman and LeMahieu due to injury. They have some new pieces in place that will take some time to get used to such as Gleyber Torres moving to shortstop and some movement in the bullpen. Nonetheless, the Yankees are the Yankees, they will win games and hit home runs.
Washington Nationals:
The Nationals return an almost carbon copy of their World Series winning team with some key additions. Eric Thames will assume first base duties with Zimmerman electing not to play in 2020, which may help them. Thames is a power hitter while Zimmerman has been on the older side of the age spectrum. They will have Carter Kieboom as their starting third baseman, he is their #1 prospect in their farm system. As well, they added a huge arm in Will Harris to their bullpen, he had a 1.50 ERA as a member of the Houston Astros last year.
Lines-Makers Outlook:
They Lines-makers are giving no love to the Nationals in this spot, to make the defending champions, at home, an underdog is a strong statement. But, they know what everyone sees, Cole off his amazing postseason run with the deadly lineup of the Yankees. Fortunately for us, over 85% of the money is on the Yankees currently with the line opening at -135, it has remained between -135 and -130, which is a sucker for public money. As well as around 65% of the money on the Yankees run-line. This may change up and down by game time but it will be very similar of a percentage of money.
Analytic System Numbers:
Starting Pitchers:
-Cole: 22.68
-Scherzer: 22.28
Starting Lineups:
-Yankees: 63.80
-Nationals: 60.42
Bullpen:
-Yankees: 5.39
-Nationals: 6.30
Prediction:
I have the Washington Nationals winning this game for multiple reasons. Firstly, Gerrit Cole just received a huge contract; while he pitched lights out for the Astros, it was in a contract year. I do not expect the same outcome from him this season. Secondly, the Nationals are getting no respect from the lines-makers, they are begging you to take the Yankees in this spot. Thirdly, line movement. If the lines-makers believed the Yankees were to win this game, that line would continue to go up, not remain stagnant. And lastly, the analytics show an almost equal starting pitching, very close lineup and a National’s advantage in the bullpen. The VALUE is on the Washington Nationals to steal this game from the Yankees in their Home Opener.
Official Selection:
Washington Nationals ML +125 (1 Unit)
2
Welcome back Baseball! We have a great match up between the Yankees and Nationals to start the season. Some of these plays might be hard to swallow for you but you will learn to trust me and my selections. Let us first look at some of the moves over the off-season for each team and then onto the match up and lines-maker breakdown.
New York Yankees:
They return a power swinging lineup headlined by Stanton, Judge and Torres. They signed Gerrit Cole to a monster $324 million dollar contract. Coming into Opening Day, they are going to be missing some key pieces to their lineup such as Chapman and LeMahieu due to injury. They have some new pieces in place that will take some time to get used to such as Gleyber Torres moving to shortstop and some movement in the bullpen. Nonetheless, the Yankees are the Yankees, they will win games and hit home runs.
Washington Nationals:
The Nationals return an almost carbon copy of their World Series winning team with some key additions. Eric Thames will assume first base duties with Zimmerman electing not to play in 2020, which may help them. Thames is a power hitter while Zimmerman has been on the older side of the age spectrum. They will have Carter Kieboom as their starting third baseman, he is their #1 prospect in their farm system. As well, they added a huge arm in Will Harris to their bullpen, he had a 1.50 ERA as a member of the Houston Astros last year.
Lines-Makers Outlook:
They Lines-makers are giving no love to the Nationals in this spot, to make the defending champions, at home, an underdog is a strong statement. But, they know what everyone sees, Cole off his amazing postseason run with the deadly lineup of the Yankees. Fortunately for us, over 85% of the money is on the Yankees currently with the line opening at -135, it has remained between -135 and -130, which is a sucker for public money. As well as around 65% of the money on the Yankees run-line. This may change up and down by game time but it will be very similar of a percentage of money.
Analytic System Numbers:
Starting Pitchers:
-Cole: 22.68
-Scherzer: 22.28
Starting Lineups:
-Yankees: 63.80
-Nationals: 60.42
Bullpen:
-Yankees: 5.39
-Nationals: 6.30
Prediction:
I have the Washington Nationals winning this game for multiple reasons. Firstly, Gerrit Cole just received a huge contract; while he pitched lights out for the Astros, it was in a contract year. I do not expect the same outcome from him this season. Secondly, the Nationals are getting no respect from the lines-makers, they are begging you to take the Yankees in this spot. Thirdly, line movement. If the lines-makers believed the Yankees were to win this game, that line would continue to go up, not remain stagnant. And lastly, the analytics show an almost equal starting pitching, very close lineup and a National’s advantage in the bullpen. The VALUE is on the Washington Nationals to steal this game from the Yankees in their Home Opener.
I plan on making one bet per day , & I'd love to discuss it w/you prior to betting. I had a good year last year playing this way . I especially like 1st 5 bets , sides & totals. I also plan to post my picks so i'll always be wiling to listen .There are other serious handicappers & they'll read your posts . You'll hear from them. I'll talk w/you in the A M.
Would love to chat. I also like doing the reverse run line's for big + money. Small, usually .25 unit as action and great value.
Most games don't end with a 1 point difference, so it's a good wager.
1
Quote Originally Posted by cheeser:
I plan on making one bet per day , & I'd love to discuss it w/you prior to betting. I had a good year last year playing this way . I especially like 1st 5 bets , sides & totals. I also plan to post my picks so i'll always be wiling to listen .There are other serious handicappers & they'll read your posts . You'll hear from them. I'll talk w/you in the A M.
Would love to chat. I also like doing the reverse run line's for big + money. Small, usually .25 unit as action and great value.
Most games don't end with a 1 point difference, so it's a good wager.
I also have been betting baseball for a long long time with much success. I have never been blacklisted but have had limits placed on my wagers with several locals and books. I have been to Vegas about 15 times and have yet to lose betting baseball. Anyway enough with that. Without going into the weeds, I have the Yankees winning this one. I think Cole will be sharp in his first start in pinstripes. Scherzer has not been very good as of late (I know its only exhibition games). The Yankees offense is healthy and the bats will show up. I think they may go over the over/under of 7 1/2 themselves. Good luck with your play!
3
I also have been betting baseball for a long long time with much success. I have never been blacklisted but have had limits placed on my wagers with several locals and books. I have been to Vegas about 15 times and have yet to lose betting baseball. Anyway enough with that. Without going into the weeds, I have the Yankees winning this one. I think Cole will be sharp in his first start in pinstripes. Scherzer has not been very good as of late (I know its only exhibition games). The Yankees offense is healthy and the bats will show up. I think they may go over the over/under of 7 1/2 themselves. Good luck with your play!
I also have been betting baseball for a long long time with much success. I have never been blacklisted but have had limits placed on my wagers with several locals and books. I have been to Vegas about 15 times and have yet to lose betting baseball. Anyway enough with that. Without going into the weeds, I have the Yankees winning this one. I think Cole will be sharp in his first start in pinstripes. Scherzer has not been very good as of late (I know its only exhibition games). The Yankees offense is healthy and the bats will show up. I think they may go over the over/under of 7 1/2 themselves. Good luck with your play!
I would take exhibition or pre-season games with a grain of salt. That’s for all sports, nobody cares about wins or losses. Yesterday, they wanted to give the Phillies pitcher more work after 3 outs in the inning and Judge hit a HR on him to tie the game. Again, don’t follow exhibition games stats, it’s all a facade!
0
Quote Originally Posted by AFentomologist:
I also have been betting baseball for a long long time with much success. I have never been blacklisted but have had limits placed on my wagers with several locals and books. I have been to Vegas about 15 times and have yet to lose betting baseball. Anyway enough with that. Without going into the weeds, I have the Yankees winning this one. I think Cole will be sharp in his first start in pinstripes. Scherzer has not been very good as of late (I know its only exhibition games). The Yankees offense is healthy and the bats will show up. I think they may go over the over/under of 7 1/2 themselves. Good luck with your play!
I would take exhibition or pre-season games with a grain of salt. That’s for all sports, nobody cares about wins or losses. Yesterday, they wanted to give the Phillies pitcher more work after 3 outs in the inning and Judge hit a HR on him to tie the game. Again, don’t follow exhibition games stats, it’s all a facade!
For the most part I agree on preseason games. However a pitcher is trying to get batters out no matter if its a preseason game or a regular season game. And many times in exhibition games a pitcher goes against players trying to make the team and some fringe players-not a full lineup of starters. If a pitcher struggles in that scenario how will they do against a full loaded lineup? Just my two cents and one thing I have glimpsed at through the years.
2
For the most part I agree on preseason games. However a pitcher is trying to get batters out no matter if its a preseason game or a regular season game. And many times in exhibition games a pitcher goes against players trying to make the team and some fringe players-not a full lineup of starters. If a pitcher struggles in that scenario how will they do against a full loaded lineup? Just my two cents and one thing I have glimpsed at through the years.
Your write up is very detailed. Where do you get your information from?
Over the years, you learn where to look and what to look for. The money %, I get from sources at some big casino groups. Don’t believe the online % websites, they take averages from polls not even wagers. Haha for the people who believe those are real.
1
Quote Originally Posted by tbook123:
Your write up is very detailed. Where do you get your information from?
Over the years, you learn where to look and what to look for. The money %, I get from sources at some big casino groups. Don’t believe the online % websites, they take averages from polls not even wagers. Haha for the people who believe those are real.
You left a very big key player out under the nationals they lost Rendon in the lineup and defense as well it’s a big loss I can’t think of one bigger actually for what he does for that team
1
You left a very big key player out under the nationals they lost Rendon in the lineup and defense as well it’s a big loss I can’t think of one bigger actually for what he does for that team
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