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Posts: 63

Iw1nBets

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 58493

Posted: Feb. 26, 2011 - 11:10 AM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by smalltime21:

The Mets under 77.5 seems like a huge play to me. Their rotation is horrible and there is no reason to believe RA Dickey will pitch as well as he did last year because he is a very average pitcher for his career. They only won 79 games last year and that was with having Johan Santana most of the year. He will be out until at least June and probably longer. They are bankrupt because of the Madoff scandal and couldn't make any moves in the off-season. Plus every other team in the East should be about the same if not better than last year. To think they will only be 6 games under is a gift. They will be in the cellar for sure.

still looking in on them a bit

I see like 7 possible plays overall but once it gets close it will prolly narrowed into 5 solid plays

Iw1nBets

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 58493

Posted: Feb. 26, 2011 - 11:14 AM ET #27

At first glance the Mets have just enough talent it seems to make that 77 mark a really close one either way. I feel as of right now If id b making that pick i would be playing bingo where the last 3 or 4 games it would come down to. So far no play for me

glyde69

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 7444

Posted: Feb. 26, 2011 - 12:43 PM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by tlosers:

As much as this hurts, I actually agree with the pick. I don't agree with most of your player assumptions, especially Hamels (I expect a MONSTER year from him), but who cares as long as your bet comes through. I won't have any money on this, and I won't wish you good luck cause I wouldn't mean it (phils fan), but I do think it has a pretty decent shot at winning.

Would like to hear your thoughts on Phlly lineup/staff if you can. A fan with a cool head(you sound that way) is sometimes the absolute best way to stumble on good info.

Iw1nBets

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 58493

Posted: Feb. 27, 2011 - 4:02 AM ET #29

Well glyde I can tell you one thing. Phillies strength is not in the outfield

Mikniks

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 1384

Posted: Feb. 27, 2011 - 5:37 AM ET #30

I have a problem with this...

I hate how people keep saying Dickey has been an average pitcher his whole career so he will go back to being average... He wasn't always a knuckle ball pitcher!!

And the fact you think it's a lock makes you sound unintelligent. If you say it's a lock then you think they won't come within 5-7 wins right? You really think they'll win less than 70? Come on man...

smalltime21

Prospect

Joined: May, 2009

Posts: 481

Posted: Mar. 2, 2011 - 12:48 AM ET #31

First off, I never used the term "lock" so if you think I am unintelligent then make a better argument. Secondly RA Dickey was a knuckleball pitcher as far back as when he was with Texas 5-6 years ago. It's not like he just developed that pitch last year. Looking at his career numbers, I am just counting on the fact he won't repeat that. You really expect him to have an ERA under 3.00 again? Please.

Ace77

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 30979

Posted: Mar. 2, 2011 - 5:55 AM ET #32

62 billion MatLock dollars on Seattle over 70

Iw1nBets

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 58493

Posted: Mar. 2, 2011 - 8:46 AM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by Ace77:

62 billion MatLock dollars on Seattle over 70

Iw1nBets

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 58493

Posted: Mar. 2, 2011 - 8:47 AM ET #34

cards dear I say over 82.5 looking good

mvp12331233

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2007

Posts: 2468

Posted: Mar. 2, 2011 - 11:51 AM ET #35

I like Cleveland UNDER 72

Mikniks

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 1384

Posted: Mar. 2, 2011 - 4:30 PM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by smalltime21:

First off, I never used the term "lock" so if you think I am unintelligent then make a better argument. Secondly RA Dickey was a knuckleball pitcher as far back as when he was with Texas 5-6 years ago. It's not like he just developed that pitch last year. Looking at his career numbers, I am just counting on the fact he won't repeat that. You really expect him to have an ERA under 3.00 again? Please.

What I meant was that he didn't perfect the pitch until recently. He got rocked when he first started trying to throw it, but it's probably the hardest pitch to throw and takes time to perfect. I'm not expecting sub-3 ERA but I believe it will be in the 3s especially considering the gigantic ballpark he plays in. And the offense will be much improved. I think it will be one of the better lineups in the NL (if they stay healthy, which is a big IF). Either way I think it will be close to the number.

thegreyhound

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 411

Posted: Mar. 2, 2011 - 5:45 PM ET #37

Oakland A's OVER 83.5

Last year they won were 81-81. They added some offense and have a SICK bullpen to go along with their solid starting rotation. I mean you can add 1 or 2 wins just because they won't face Cliff Lee. Ha.

Iw1nBets

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 58493

Posted: Mar. 3, 2011 - 8:33 AM ET #38

Quote Originally Posted by thegreyhound:

Oakland A's OVER 83.5

Barring pre season in juries this is in my top 3 outta the 5 plays im most likely picking

Iw1nBets

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 58493

Posted: Mar. 3, 2011 - 8:34 AM ET #39

my avatar needs to smother her ass agaisnt Cardinals faces all year. Get them pumped up

nc1capper

MVP

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 16348

Posted: Mar. 3, 2011 - 9:00 AM ET #40

blue jays OVER,,leaning OVER A's but havent fired yet

bob696969

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 4049

Posted: Mar. 4, 2011 - 9:09 AM ET #41

Thoughts on Pirates under 67.5?

- They won 57 last year.... is their current roster going to produce an 11 game improvement?

- they play in the most balanced division in baseball

- pirates have been a horrible road team for 5 straight years. there is no reason for that to change

KeyElement

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 23750

Posted: Mar. 4, 2011 - 9:47 AM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

Thoughts on Pirates under 67.5?

- They won 57 last year.... is their current roster going to produce an 11 game improvement?

- they play in the most balanced division in baseball

- pirates have been a horrible road team for 5 straight years. there is no reason for that to change

There is no reason for anything about the Pirates to change. From the top down, ownership to bat boy, they are the worst organization in professional sports.

"They play in the most balanced division in baseball" is short changing them, it is also the worst division in baseball, where all teams have achieved the Peter Principal by reaching their own level of incompetence.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn

Iw1nBets

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 58493

Posted: Mar. 4, 2011 - 9:49 AM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

There is no reason for anything about the Pirates to change. From the top down, ownership to bat boy, they are the worst organization in professional sports.

"They play in the most balanced division in baseball" is short changing them, it is also the worst division in baseball, where all teams have achieved the Peter Principal by reaching their own level of incompetence.

no shit they even have the worst bat boys in professional baseball

Iw1nBets

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 58493

Posted: Mar. 4, 2011 - 9:50 AM ET #44

I might be going against what has made me so profitable on season win wagers over last 5 years but ..... I think im going to take more unders then overs this year

KeyElement

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 23750

Posted: Mar. 4, 2011 - 10:21 AM ET #45

Quote Originally Posted by Iw1nBets:

I might be going against what has made me so profitable on season win wagers over last 5 years but ..... I think im going to take more unders then overs this year

What you might be doing is taking a professional attitude. Pros consistently call for more unders than overs. The principals are easy to understand. If you take an under you start with a winner and someone has to take it away from you. Secondly, overs are very dependent on the health of a club, especially the starting rotation. If anyone loved the Cardinals over when the numbers were posted, how do you feel now, with Wainwright gone for the year and Carpenter questionable? They are already down from 87.5 to 84.5 at Pinnacle and a further drop is likely as the under is still carrying the negative juice (-160). Anyone that jumped on board early and bet over 87.5 is crying like a baby by now.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn

Iw1nBets

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 58493

Posted: Mar. 4, 2011 - 10:55 AM ET #46

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

What you might be doing is taking a professional attitude. Pros consistently call for more unders than overs. The principals are easy to understand. If you take an under you start with a winner and someone has to take it away from you. Secondly, overs are very dependent on the health of a club, especially the starting rotation. If anyone loved the Cardinals over when the numbers were posted, how do you feel now, with Wainwright gone for the year and Carpenter questionable? They are already down from 87.5 to 84.5 at Pinnacle and a further drop is likely as the under is still carrying the negative juice (-160). Anyone that jumped on board early and bet over 87.5 is crying like a baby by now.

no shit man. Cards are at 82 right now and thats going to b hard to pass up wainright or no wainright

tomsan73761

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2010

Posts: 1546

Posted: Mar. 4, 2011 - 12:45 PM ET #47

gOoD lUcK

bob696969

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 4049

Posted: Mar. 4, 2011 - 3:01 PM ET #48

the other thing i have learned about betting futures: it is more advantageous to bet crappy teams to go under and good teams to go over.

Why? Because if your bet is close to losing near the end of the season, you will be in a better position to hedge. Eg, suppose the pirates have 66 wins with 3 games left. Since they are a crappy team, they will likely be a dog or at worst a small favorite, provding an opportunity for you to buy out your bet. The reverse is true if you bet a favorite to go over.

Obviously i am not saying to blindly bet every bad team to stay under or every good team to go over and sometimes the opposite bets might be good, but this consideration is useful

Yungstar

Veteran

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 2310

Posted: Mar. 5, 2011 - 1:43 AM ET #49

Would it be wise to take the teams that are projected to win >70 games and just bet against them all year? ie: Royals. Assuming they are going Under, you'd hit (at worst) 57% clip for the year against them, lol.

Roger1spezza

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 1577

Posted: Mar. 5, 2011 - 11:08 AM ET #50

The absolute best total play this year would have to be the TORONTO BLUE JAYS over 76.5 i dont understand why more people have not mentioned this, they will finish 500 or better, i expect about 83 wins.

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