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September Dogs - Starting with $4k

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herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 861

Posted: Aug. 31, 2018 - 1:56 PM ET #1501

Baltimore Orioles +0.75 +116

vs Kansas City Royals

$84 to win $97.44

MLB TREND OF THE DAY: Home teams that lost last matchup allowing 10+ runs now starting a pitcher that allowed 1 or 0 runs last start fail: 95-150 -84.5 units SU. (Fade the Royals
EXTRA SYSTEM: After the beginning of regular season and filtering out the last month as well, dogs or very small favorites off of 3+ straight games where they score over 6 runs are 103-96 +31.9 units

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SliPKnuT

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 268

Posted: Sep. 1, 2018 - 2:23 PM ET #1502

Happy September

Let's Roll

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herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 861

Posted: Sep. 1, 2018 - 3:14 PM ET #1503

Here's September and woof woof boys. Let's hit it!

Detroit Tigers +2.25 +148

vs New York Yankees

$140 to win $207.20

(Take the +2.5 and the +1 in two separate bets and use the calculator I linked in profile....or I think EV on Moneyline!)

MLB TREND OF THE DAY: Fade plus .600 Favorites at the end of regular season: 218-185 -93.44 units SU +15.5% roi fade. Very simple, very powerful. (Fade the Yankees)

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TALLYHOESD

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2017

Posts: 106

Posted: Sep. 1, 2018 - 3:36 PM ET #1504

wait is this guys bankroll to 13k from 4k ALL OF OF DOGS?

CAN SOMEONE CONFIRM SO I DONT HAVE TO GO THROUGH all 61 pages ..

amazing if so.

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daebaknaja

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2018

Posts: 967

Posted: Sep. 1, 2018 - 7:49 PM ET #1505

Quote Originally Posted by TALLYHOESD:

wait is this guys bankroll to 13k from 4k ALL OF OF DOGS?

CAN SOMEONE CONFIRM SO I DONT HAVE TO GO THROUGH all 61 pages ..

amazing if so.

yeahh took 6 years tho..meanwhile if you put 4k on amazon stock wouldve like 30k lol

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monkeebooger

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 5393

Posted: Sep. 1, 2018 - 10:37 PM ET #1506

Back in the W column

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herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 861

Posted: Sep. 4, 2018 - 1:17 PM ET #1507

Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

Here's September and woof woof boys. Let's hit it!

Detroit Tigers +2.25 +148

vs New York Yankees

$140 to win $207.20

(Take the +2.5 and the +1 in two separate bets and use the calculator I linked in profile....or I think EV on Moneyline!)

MLB TREND OF THE DAY: Fade plus .600 Favorites at the end of regular season: 218-185 -93.44 units SU +15.5% roi fade. Very simple, very powerful. (Fade the Yankees)

Tigers kept is close for a winner there and a new all time thread high at:

Current Bankroll: $13,858.91

from $4000 (+246.47 units)

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herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 861

Posted: Sep. 4, 2018 - 1:18 PM ET #1508

Quote Originally Posted by daebaknaja:

yeahh took 6 years tho..meanwhile if you put 4k on amazon stock wouldve like 30k lol

$4k is a hypothetical roll. Just thought $4k would be good because it is what I think the minimum for any roll should be.

Also, we're not all Jeff Bezos :P

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herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 861

Posted: Sep. 4, 2018 - 1:19 PM ET #1509

Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:

Back in the W column

Onwards and upwards.

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herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 861

Posted: Sep. 4, 2018 - 1:55 PM ET #1510

For today:

Toronto Blue Jays +0.75 +111

vs Tampa Bay Rays
$60 to win $66.60

MLB TREND OF THE DAY: Since 2004, sub .500 home division dogs, +100 to +145, off of a loss as a home favorite are 145-114 +49.56 units SU +19.1% roi. - Take the Blue Jays today!

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Digitalkarma

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 49550

Posted: Sep. 4, 2018 - 2:06 PM ET #1511

can Royals do it again?

they are on a surprising winning streak wow.

Sip on that plus money honey!

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herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 861

Posted: Sep. 5, 2018 - 3:05 PM ET #1512

Detroit Tigers +0.75 +147
vs Chicago White Sox

$87 to win $127.89

MLB TREND OF THE DAY: Weekday Rubber Game: Take the sub .580 Road Dog facing a plus .360 team. Ignore situations where the opponent won by 3+ runs last game and very low pitcher dual totals for 175-179 +59.69 +16.9% roi. (Take the Tigers and Orioles)
Since 2012, teams that lose by an average 0.5 rpg on the season for -145 to -200 are 16-26 -27.52 units, +58.2% roi SU after allowing over 7 runs. (Fade the White Sox)

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Money_Team99

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2016

Posts: 2291

Posted: Sep. 5, 2018 - 9:50 PM ET #1513

Good luck .

"The System Is Designed to Destroy the Degenerate Gambler" - Joey Diaz

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herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 861

Posted: Sep. 6, 2018 - 10:21 AM ET #1514

Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

Detroit Tigers +0.75 +147
vs Chicago White Sox

$87 to win $127.89

BIG WINNER!
10-2 road blowout victory for the Tigers...

Current Bankroll: $13,926.80

from $4000 (+248.17 units)

0

SliPKnuT

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 268

Posted: Sep. 6, 2018 - 10:38 AM ET #1515

Simply Amazing thread!

If you have a moment, could you please accept a pending friend request from me?

Thanks! an_clap

0

herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 861

Posted: Sep. 6, 2018 - 1:09 PM ET #1516

Quote Originally Posted by SliPKnuT:

Simply Amazing thread!

If you have a moment, could you please accept a pending friend request from me?

Thanks! an_clap

Sure thing

0

herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 861

Posted: Sep. 6, 2018 - 1:19 PM ET #1517

Arizona Diamondbacks -1.25 +126

vs Atlanta Braves
$67 to win $84.42

MLB TREND OF THE DAY: FILTER: Since 2010, Zack Greinke; home favorite <-120; normal conditions; 46-1 +44.3 units - Greinke is a freak at home. This is now 76-8! That means 30 games went by since inception of the trend and Greinke only lost 7 of 30 (77% win rate in forward tracking).
For those who may have missed it or glazed over it; there's a key factor in trends and systems I look at that I think a lot of other cappers...honestly...haven't probably figured out a way to quantify: that's forward progress of your trend and system / record since inception.

I called this FwdZ -- If it is ATS or OU I use regular standard score to rate forward progress and if moneyline bets, I use a modified version of standard score. Standard score is a lot like basic 'rate' or 'percentage' except, with the square root of the sample size in the denominator, Z-score or 'standard score' distinguishes small 10-0 100% records from 50-0 100% records where the sample size adds a statistical credence to the metric.

In the case of the Greinke trend:
*The Z-score was: +6.85 at inception
*It is now a whopping +7.42 z
*In forward progress it went 30-7 SU which is a practically unseen +3.78z

Note: Statistically speaking, anything above +2.0 (std score = (wins - losses) / (sqrt (wins+losses)))
is considered 'very meaningful' and worth analytical inspection....so +6, +7, +3.78 are all off the charts.
In plain English that equates to: There is definately a reason ZacK Greinke has shredded opponents when starting at home.
Important: Unfortunately, it seems over 70% of the public bets agree with us on Greinke. After so much blatent shredding, you have to expect the public to shift onto the trend. As a linemaker, this is the kind of thing you really hate. The public is all going to take Greinke at this point; perhaps still the site parameter being slightly under the radar; and the win rate is so heavy, it becomes difficult to issue this bet: So the linesmakers do two things: They'll roll the dice and use reverse psychology: Make the line strangly low. Make bettors glean over it seeing : 'Greinke at home and that cheap? must be a trap' and a bet not made is a victory if you're a bookmaker. Either that or exploit the home / away dichotomy: Greinke is stellar at home, but if you inspect the condition: 'site' , you'll see that it harshly crumbles when he starts on the road: 94-109 SU (46.3%, -23.64 units).
That is one of the largest home performance vs. road performance differentials in the league, and Greinke on the road is the real trap.

At home though, it is very simple: Greinke, -120 or more home favorite, regular series game
= 106-26 SU (80.3%, +63.68 units, +28.3% roi)

We'll take those odds for just a bit over -150 which isn't all that large of a home favorite as home favorites go let alone with an extreme ace on the mound.

0

Arizona Diamondbacks -1.25 +126

vs Atlanta Braves
$67 to win $84.42

MLB TREND OF THE DAY: FILTER: Since 2010, Zack Greinke; home favorite <-120; normal conditions; 46-1 +44.3 units - Greinke is a freak at home. This is now 76-8! That means 30 games went by since inception of the trend and Greinke only lost 7 of 30 (77% win rate in forward tracking).
For those who may have missed it or glazed over it; there's a key factor in trends and systems I look at that I think a lot of other cappers...honestly...haven't probably figured out a way to quantify: that's forward progress of your trend and system / record since inception.

I called this FwdZ -- If it is ATS or OU I use regular standard score to rate forward progress and if moneyline bets, I use a modified version of standard score. Standard score is a lot like basic 'rate' or 'percentage' except, with the square root of the sample size in the denominator, Z-score or 'standard score' distinguishes small 10-0 100% records from 50-0 100% records where the sample size adds a statistical credence to the metric.

In the case of the Greinke trend:
*The Z-score was: +6.85 at inception
*It is now a whopping +7.42 z
*In forward progress it went 30-7 SU which is a practically unseen +3.78z

Note: Statistically speaking, anything above +2.0 (std score = (wins - losses) / (sqrt (wins+losses)))
is considered 'very meaningful' and worth analytical inspection....so +6, +7, +3.78 are all off the charts.
In plain English that equates to: There is definately a reason ZacK Greinke has shredded opponents when starting at home.
Important: Unfortunately, it seems over 70% of the public bets agree with us on Greinke. After so much blatent shredding, you have to expect the public to shift onto the trend. As a linemaker, this is the kind of thing you really hate. The public is all going to take Greinke at this point; perhaps still the site parameter being slightly under the radar; and the win rate is so heavy, it becomes difficult to issue this bet: So the linesmakers do two things: They'll roll the dice and use reverse psychology: Make the line strangly low. Make bettors glean over it seeing : 'Greinke at home and that cheap? must be a trap' and a bet not made is a victory if you're a bookmaker. Either that or exploit the home / away dichotomy: Greinke is stellar at home, but if you inspect the condition: 'site' , you'll see that it harshly crumbles when he starts on the road: 94-109 SU (46.3%, -23.64 units).
That is one of the largest home performance vs. road performance differentials in the league, and Greinke on the road is the real trap.

At home though, it is very simple: Greinke, -120 or more home favorite, regular series game
= 106-26 SU (80.3%, +63.68 units, +28.3% roi)

We'll take those odds for just a bit over -150 which isn't all that large of a home favorite as home favorites go let alone with an extreme ace on the mound.

africaaa

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2017

Posts: 95

Posted: Sep. 6, 2018 - 3:33 PM ET #1518

Thank you for the info herb. Good luck peace_5

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herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 861

Posted: Sep. 7, 2018 - 1:40 PM ET #1519

Bullpen blew it yesterday, but Greinke came thru. Maybe first 5 innings was the better bet, but hindsight is always 20/20. Cest la vie...

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philly42

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2017

Posts: 148

Posted: Sep. 7, 2018 - 2:57 PM ET #1520

Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

Bullpen blew it yesterday, but Greinke came thru. Maybe first 5 innings was the better bet, but hindsight is always 20/20. Cest la vie...

they were losing after 5 innings. they should have won the game though.

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herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 861

Posted: Sep. 7, 2018 - 5:39 PM ET #1521

Los Angeles Angels +0.75 +107

vs Chicago White Sox

$80 to win $85.60

I think it might sound like non-sense, but I'm doing two trends of the day, just because they're very different in that: one is a team based trend, the other a league wide broad system; and secondly, they synergize because they pinwheel off of an uncannily similar
MLB TREND OF THE DAY: 491-683 -210.5 units, +10.5% roi to fade SU. Take a team that isn't a huge favorite off of a massive 8+ run loss and fade them in the second half of the season. (Fade the White Sox)
MLB TREND OF THE DAY #2: While under Brad Ausmus (Tigers) teams that just played his squad haven't ever done well against opponents that just crushed it 6+ run margin in their last game. Just 26-42 SU +21.0% roi.

However, if we we make sure that the opponent isn't off of some kind of flukey win (p:SII!=0 + p:margin!=-1) < no high flying scored 1 run loss margins that could have easily landed on some score like 6-7 loss and p:SII!=0 rules out those pitcher duals where a tight margin like 1-0 is proportionally much larger a thing than a fluke) There wasn't just one weird inning where the opponent dialed up a bunch of runs skewing the number, making the win look like a bigger deal that it probably was / setting conditions more indicative of a situation where the opponent is playing well-rounded and on the ball fully and not just one hot player or something).

Lastly, if the opponent was not well rested and still crushed a win like that (over 6+ run win margin), AND neither was the previous opponent of the Tigers (Under 2 days rest each), the team is just 33-64 SU 34.0% and -31.6% roi to fade! (Fade the White Sox! Take the Angels)

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SBT

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2017

Posts: 375

Posted: Sep. 7, 2018 - 6:42 PM ET #1522

The converter excel file for +0.75 doesn't seem to work properly. I have odds of -104 for ML and -204 for +1.5 line and it gives an error. Seems like you would need pretty great ML and RL odds to get +107. Almost all of your lines you're getting amazing odds. Mind if I ask you what book you're using? Thanks herbs! Keep up the good work!

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herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 861

Posted: Sep. 7, 2018 - 8:03 PM ET #1523

oh for a dog with minus odds it must be positive on the money line so just instead of -104 do +96 ; (a dog minus 4 points positive value and the calc will understand)

But I got +115 earlier on the Angels I guess it slipped.

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herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 861

Posted: Sep. 8, 2018 - 11:29 AM ET #1524

Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

Los Angeles Angels +0.75 +107

vs Chicago White Sox

$80 to win $85.60

WINNER!

Current Bankroll: $13,945.40

from $4000 (+248.63 units)

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BleedBlue33

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2015

Posts: 333

Posted: Sep. 8, 2018 - 11:52 AM ET #1525

Nice job herb !!

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September Dogs - Starting with $4k

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