Been posting on another forum for a long time, moving over here now. Long time user of the info on this site, figured I might as well try to contribute something useful now.
This thread is about betting against the public #s (squares) in MLB. Have done decently with this so far this season. My record over at the other place as documented still online for anyone who cares is as follows for the 2015 season. You can pretty much find it by googling my user name if you're that interested. Just providing the info in case it effects your opinion one way or the other.
Season Record: 104-88-9 [+13.25]
I'm basically looking for plays that the public is on where there have been big line shifts on the ML towards the other side. For totals, looking at numbers where the public is on one side, but the total has either moved in favor of the other side or not budged at all.
I don't have a set % I am looking at as far as the public being on a certain side, it's still kind of a feel it out procedure at the end of the day. Usually as far as the results have gone for me so far, getting on the other side of a play that has a 55-65% public consensus is generally where I start looking & then make a decision to play or pass. Hope to keep looking at the right sides of these. Any comments are always welcomed. Good luck to you guys/gals.
6.13.15 Cleveland @ -116 St.Louis-Kansas City Under 7.5 @ -115
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Been posting on another forum for a long time, moving over here now. Long time user of the info on this site, figured I might as well try to contribute something useful now.
This thread is about betting against the public #s (squares) in MLB. Have done decently with this so far this season. My record over at the other place as documented still online for anyone who cares is as follows for the 2015 season. You can pretty much find it by googling my user name if you're that interested. Just providing the info in case it effects your opinion one way or the other.
Season Record: 104-88-9 [+13.25]
I'm basically looking for plays that the public is on where there have been big line shifts on the ML towards the other side. For totals, looking at numbers where the public is on one side, but the total has either moved in favor of the other side or not budged at all.
I don't have a set % I am looking at as far as the public being on a certain side, it's still kind of a feel it out procedure at the end of the day. Usually as far as the results have gone for me so far, getting on the other side of a play that has a 55-65% public consensus is generally where I start looking & then make a decision to play or pass. Hope to keep looking at the right sides of these. Any comments are always welcomed. Good luck to you guys/gals.
6.13.15 Cleveland @ -116 St.Louis-Kansas City Under 7.5 @ -115
It was really tough for me to start betting like this because I had always been a number cruncher, so looking at stats - I would look at fading a pick and say - this makes no sense! But a friend of mine taught me to stick with it and basically throw logic out the door in just watching the lines and public percentages. Been very interesting to see how these things work out.
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It was really tough for me to start betting like this because I had always been a number cruncher, so looking at stats - I would look at fading a pick and say - this makes no sense! But a friend of mine taught me to stick with it and basically throw logic out the door in just watching the lines and public percentages. Been very interesting to see how these things work out.
Thanks! Ebbs & flows to any project like this. The public does win their share of bets. Biggest thing for me is trying to find the right factors to make a decision on whether to go ahead and make a pick or pass. Passing really often is more enjoyable to me when you see that bet lose.
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Thanks! Ebbs & flows to any project like this. The public does win their share of bets. Biggest thing for me is trying to find the right factors to make a decision on whether to go ahead and make a pick or pass. Passing really often is more enjoyable to me when you see that bet lose.
Looking over a couple of the early games. A lot of times, I don't make a decision until 10-15 minutes before the games so as to see where the line moves/public percentages go.
Try to post them at least 15 minutes ahead of time if I can.
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Quote Originally Posted by viro:
What are todays plays?
Looking over a couple of the early games. A lot of times, I don't make a decision until 10-15 minutes before the games so as to see where the line moves/public percentages go.
Try to post them at least 15 minutes ahead of time if I can.
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