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Pitchers: Josh Johnson (Miami) vs Kyle Lohse (St. Louis)
We'll have a very exciting game today, between the 2011 World Champions, the Cardinals, and the re-branded Miami Marlins. Both teams made plenty of changes during this offseason, having all the spotlight so far.
One of the best players in recent memory, first baseman Albert Pujols, left St. Louis after the World Series, deciding to go to a bigger market, LA, and will play for the LA Angels. The Cardinals will have a new manager for this season in in Mike Matheny, after Tony La Russa retired 3 days after he won the WS, and after 33 years of coaching. Miami made even bigger changes, including a new stadium, new logo, a new manager and new players. They've moved in a new ballpark, a state of the art facility with a retractable roof, which will be extremly useful considering the weather in Florida. Ozzie Guillen came back from the Chicago White Sox with his goal set to take the Marlins to the World Series. He was the first latino manager to win it in 2003, with the Florida Marlins, and he won it again two years later with the White Sox. Guillen made three quick but importnt moves, and he came in Miami from Chicago with maybe the best closer in MLB right now, Heath Bell and a very good pitcher in Mark Buerhle . All-Star shortstop Jose Reyes joined too, from the New York Mets, and this team, if managed properly, is destined for success.
Pitchers
Josh Johnson > When healthy, Johnson is one of the best pitchers in the league. He is injury prone, already had a Tommy John surgery and a shoulder injury in 2011. He's relying on the fastball and the slider and has a 2.98 ERA in his career. His xFIP is a little higher, but that means he has a good defense behind him. St. Louis batter are averaging .276 against him career wise, and the absence of Pujols is huge, as the former Cardinal is averaging .466 against Johnson. St. Louis added Carlos Beltran to their roster, but the former Giant and Met is averaging a lowly .214 against Josh Johnson. Yadier Molina and Skip Schumacher have the best averages, but the sample size is not too big.
Kyle Lohse > Lohse is not the #1 pitcher on the Cardinals depth chart, but with the injury of Chris Carpenter, the ace of the ball club, and the recent Tommy John surgery Adam Wainwright had, Lohse moved up and will start in this Opening Day, but he is maybe the 4th best pitcher in St. Louis, after Carpenter, Wainwright and Garcia. He had a great 2011 for his standards, with a 3.39 ERA, after a 6.55 ERA posted in 2010. Also, he had a lot of run support from his offense, but with Pujols out, this will be a much harder season. The Marlins line-up is averaging .261 against Lohse, but the key Miami players are hitting him often: Stanton + Reyes + Hanley Ramirez + Logan Morrison + Emilio Bonifacio are averaging .369 in 46 at bats.
A few trends for this game:
Miami is 29-10 in Johnsons last 39 home starts
Marlins are 21-7 in Johnsons last 28 starts as a home favorite.
Over is 5-1 in Lohses last 6 road starts.
Over is 7-2 in Cardinals last 9 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
I like Marlins today, but to pay that kind of juice on Johnson, who hasn't pitched in a meaningful game in almost a year, a team who will play in a new ballpark, and against the defending champions, it's not worth it. Granted, the Cardinals come in town without Pujols, but thatdoesn't mean they can't score a couple of runs. If Miami will win, I do believe they will score at least 3-4 runs, as Lohse is not an ace by any means, and I hardly believe St. Louis will go scoreless today. I'll lay some juice, but not on the ML, but on the over 6.5. If the game will be 3-3 after the 9th inning, this bet will cash.
Pick: OVER 6.5 runs
Odds: -133
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