Posted:
#1
4-1-1 +4 units
Went 3-1 yesterday with the only loss coming when the A's exploded and I lost the under. Giants/Mets "NO" in the 1st inning was simple as the game went "NO" through 6. And that included NO hitters. Indians -1 was a bit of a sweat but the Mikolas finally broke but I can't wait to fade him in his next start again because he should BLOW UP. And then the Tigers were an easy winner but the Dodgers scared me a bit as I had parlayed the 2 but HanRam crushed a walkoff. Sundays scare me and I love the card today so I'll try to be conservative but it may be difficult.
Pending Parlay:
Dodgers Series Bet -275 (1-1)
Athletics Series Bet -245 (1-1)
Athletics Series Bet -245 (1-1)
Tigers Series Bet -275 (2-0)
Risking 2 units to win 3.27 units
Risking 2 units to win 3.27 units
No plays at the moment but let me get my first inning info out there and I'll work on other stuff as the day goes on.
Bauer has pitched 11 of 15 clean first innings this season and 3 of 8 at home. Nothing special there but Darvish is 17 of 20 on the NO on the season with all 3 YES' coming on the road in his 10 road starts. May be a little sketchy but the yes looks kinda nice.
Iwakuma has pitched 14 of 16 clean first innings this season as he's given up a first inning run just once at home and once on the road this season with a 5 game "NO" streak going for him. However...he goes up against Tillman who has given up a first inning run in 10 of his 23 starts this season and 5 of his 10 home starts. Again, Adam Jones has 10 first inning homers so Iwakuma may be at risk here while Tillman is prone to the early run. The "YES" may have some value at +105.
Odorizzi has yet to give up a run in the first at home this season. And he pitches there a lot. He's thrown 12 clean first innings at home this season and 18 of 20 on the season (however, he's given up a run in each of his last 2 road starts which span his last 5 outings). He faces Weaver who has given up a first inning run in 4 of his 10 road starts but only 5 of his 22 overall. And, following a road start in which he's given up a first inning run, he's gone 2 road starts with clean first innings (he's coming off a first inning in which he's given up a run). I'll probably be playing this one, even with the scary top of the Angels lineup. Not to mention I can't imagine the "YES" hitting in 3 straight Tampa games.
Stroman has pitched 9 of 11 clean first innings with 5 clean firsts on the road and 8 clean firsts overall. Definitely not an appealing opponent in Feldman HOWEVER...has pitched 9 of 10 clean first innings at home (14 of 18 NO's overall). However, Reyes/Melky/Bautista scare me too much and they've score in the first in every game of this series so I couldn't touch this "NO."
Quintana has pitched nice first innings this season as he's only allowed a run in 3 of his 22 starts this season (2 at home) and he's gone 7 of his last 8 with a clean first overall. However...Gibson can't be trusted as he's allowed a first inning run in 4 of his 12 road starts and 6 of 18 overall. Not "awful" but an interesting note here is that in 4 of the 6 outings in which he's given up a first inning run, he gave up at least 3 runs. He also has interesting splits when it comes to the road and the first 5 innings. In his 12 road starts, he's held his opponent scoreless thru 5 in 5 of those outings and holding them to 2 or less in 7 of them. However...in the other 5, he gave up 4, 5, 6 and 7 twice.
Kazmir has only had 4 starts this season in which he gave up a run in the first (2 at home) of his 21 and is currently on a run in which he's given up a run in the first only once in his last 9 starts. Shields, however, is kind of sketchy. He's given up a first inning run in 5 of his 14 road starts this season (6 of 23 overall). But giving up a run in the first in 4 of his last 7 road starts is definitely alarming at -140. With that said, I'm still not sold on this A's lineup being all that great without Cespedes and currently without Crisp so the "NO" does look tempting.
Anibal has gone 9 of 12 scoreless first innings at home this season (14 of 19 overall). However...he allowed runs in each of his first 3 starts of the season so that means he's riding a streak in which he's given up a first inning run in just 2 of his last 16 starts. But this "NO" is unbettable because he faces De La Rosa and while he's been pitching well this season, this is in the American League against the top of that Tigers' lineup. His numbers, however, are 8 scoreless firsts in 11 road starts and 14 of 22 overall, which isn't good.
National League first inning stats to come in a bit.
Angels/Rays "NO" First Inning Runs -145
Risking 2.9 units to win 2 units
Risking 2.9 units to win 2 units
Locking this in now for obvious reasons.
0
"Discussion"
great analysis. You got me wanting to take a shot KC.bol 
Hot Forum Topics
