The Good:
OAK (-128)
OAK has taken 6 of the last 8 in the series and has won 10 of their last 12 overall. Straily has won his last 3 starts, Quintana has lost his last 2 starts. OAK is 24-12 when FAVE, CHW is 11-22 when DOG. OAK is 12-8 vs. LHP. CWS’s bullpen is not 100% since coming off a 16-inning last night @ SEA.
TEX (+129)
TEX has won the 6 of the last 7 in the series. Holland has won his last 5 starts vs. BOS. BOS has lost to TEX in Lester's last 4 starts in the series.
The Bad: Fading SD (vs. COL), Hughes (NYY)
COL (-137)
SD has lost the last 6 in the series, and 8 of the last 10. SD is just 10-17 when DOG AWAY. Chacin has won 4 of his last 5 starts vs. SD.
SEA (+110)
NYY has not won a Hughes start since before Hughes' last start vs. SEA, where he posted a 94.50 ERA by giving up 7 ER in 0.2 IP. Hughes last won on May 10. SEA is coming off of a 16-inning game, but NYY is making a cross country trip. Normally, I would be all over the NYY (-125) price, but this month it seems like every time I feel good about getting a cheap price for an "obvious" win, it has backfired on me (Matt Moore @ DET, Zito vs. TOR, McAllister vs. TB, Locke @ ATL, Lester @ NYY). Well, I have learned my lesson and for once, I am fading the "obvious" pick and going with SEA for this one.
The Ugly: Fading Greinke (LAD)
ATL (-104)
ATL has owned this series, winning 7 of the last 10. Although Hudson has lost his last 5 AWAY starts, Greinke is yet to last at least 5.2 IP since his first start of the season. Greinke has given up at least 4 ER in his last 3 start, and he has a career 5.73 ERA vs. ATL in 11 IP. ATL’s road record (16-15) is just as good as LAD’s home record (16-16).
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