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The Birds Are Chirping 4/7/16

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Posted: #1

MLB – 2016

1-2, -218.18

4/7 Flat $200.00

Cardinals +110, Leake/Nicasio

A popular betting theory out there is “won’t get swept at home” but in this case I think it is just “won’t get swept with this matchup”. Nicasio had a nice ST season but I don’t expect it to be like Lazarus rising from the grave and eventually a rose has to smell like a rose and a pitcher has to work to his proven ability, as in “past history”. Leake is far and away the better side of this matchup and has the better matchup offense behind him.  

BOL

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #2
good to be on your side man think leake going deep tonight bol 
 
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Posted: #3
gl on the play KEY...but watch out My BUCCO'S may go 162-0 this year
I did have Cards TT o35yester. day as I do not trust Niese this year...







 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by mbiddy:

 My BUCCO'S may go 162-0 this year

I computed the probability. 0.00000000000000001%

 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #6
Nice call on the M's yesterday
 
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Posted: #7
Good Luck!! thanks Key
 
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Bol


Pal
 
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Posted: #9
My top play today.

Leake might not give up a run and go 7-8 strong innings 
 
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Posted: #10
The date of 4-7 is a bit confusing.
 
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Posted: #11
Appreciate your posts KEY! I like it when we are on same side. Jumped on this game last night at +105 thinking it would go other direction. Can't believe it's +110 now. I think Leake is a vastly underrated pitcher and I don't think the Cards get swept with this pitching matchup.
 
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Posted: #12
GL Key, what are your thoughts on the Twins today as well?  They should have the same elements as your play on opening day.
 
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Posted: #13


~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
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Posted: #15
Good luck Key 
Keep on digging !!!
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by cutebrute:

GL Key, what are your thoughts on the Twins today as well?  They should have the same elements as your play on opening day.
Honesty is the best policy. I like the Twinkies just 2.2% less than the Cardinals. Qualified play. Go for it if you like it.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #17
I took a good look at this one also
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by cjm2008:

I took a good look at this one also
Great minds think alike (sometimes).
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

I computed the probability. 0.00000000000000001%

 


So you're saying there's a chance?
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Honesty is the best policy. I like the Twinkies just 2.2% less than the Cardinals. Qualified play. Go for it if you like it.


Why wouldn't this be a play for you, if it's a qualified play for you? Do you just not like playing multiple games or at least not early in the season?
 
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Posted: #22
The "won't get swept at Home" reference confuses me as this series is in Pittsburgh with the Pirates trying for the sweep that their Home.

Recent History IIRC is Pirates hang alot tougher vs. Cards in Pittsburgh than they do in STL.

I'm not knocking the play, just puzzled by the "won't get swept at Home", re: how that relates to this spot.

The Best to you this Season B.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by BaseballChaser:



Why wouldn't this be a play for you, if it's a qualified play for you? Do you just not like playing multiple games or at least not early in the season?
Not playing multiple games this early.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by akhunaten:

The "won't get swept at Home" reference confuses me as this series is in Pittsburgh with the Pirates trying for the sweep that their Home.

I was only pointing out what is a prominent betting angle at this time in history. Nothing to do with this game. Where the similarity comes in is that the Cardinals are not a likely candidate to get swept in any series, home, away or anywhere else. Sorry I confused you.


Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
 
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Posted: #25
No Key please don't bring the "no series sweep" vermin out from under the rocks where they are currently hibernating...for it is still early and cold

I was wondering if you looked at the Tampa game, I'm on it for +122 and think that's a good value on Moore. JA Haap looks decent IMO.

GL today
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