Posted:
#1
Okay boys, in honor of Semperfi and McShady let's keep this thing going! When the going gets tough, the tough get going!
0
THE CHASE LOUNGE
Posted:
#2
woo! I'm completely sober thanks to stomach pains all night.
So, lac under gm 1, chicken dinna!!
maddix totals chases now 7-0. No gm3s yet, fingers crossed.
still haven't gotten all lines yet, current leaning houston over as I like their next 3 matchups for over. Will take a minute to look tomorrow when I'm at work.
0
Posted:
#5
Some info I heard on the Norm Hitzges show on The Ticket radio from Dallas.
Rookie NFL QB's in the NFL this season since week 13 are something like 13-2 ATS. That includes Cleveland's Weeden and Philly's QB Foles! I forgot the record for the entire season but it was impressive.
In the last 17 times a team has played the Saints and then been an underdog in their next game of 3 or less, that team is 0-17 ATS.
That would apply to the Cowboys if they stay +3 or less.
I was thinking about taking Wash anyway, but will wait until seeing what happens with Bears and Vikings. If they both lose, Wash can lose and still be wildcard while Dallas must win or go home.
Rookie NFL QB's in the NFL this season since week 13 are something like 13-2 ATS. That includes Cleveland's Weeden and Philly's QB Foles! I forgot the record for the entire season but it was impressive.
In the last 17 times a team has played the Saints and then been an underdog in their next game of 3 or less, that team is 0-17 ATS.
That would apply to the Cowboys if they stay +3 or less.
I was thinking about taking Wash anyway, but will wait until seeing what happens with Bears and Vikings. If they both lose, Wash can lose and still be wildcard while Dallas must win or go home.
0
Posted:
#17
We have now arrived at Week 17, the final week of the NFL regular season. This week, we are carrying over four NFL Trends & Angles that collectively went a slightly profitable 4-3 ATS in Week 16.
As those of you that have followed us in the past know, all of our season-long trends go back to 2005, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.
In addition to the four angles we are carrying over from last week, we lead off with a nice contrarian angle that has had a great season but that had the last few weeks off. Also, some of the angles we are carrying over are for December games only, so please pay close attention to the parameters.
You will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams, such as in our leading angle. We are not using those terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games.
Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the dregs of the league, and on the road no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a nice sampling. Qualifiers: Arizona +17 to 18, Jacksonville +4, Kansas City +17 to 18 and Philadelphia +7 to 8.
Angle #2 - During the month of December only, play against any favorite coming off of two or more losses (55-32-2, 63.2% ATS): There are two reasons why this angle has worked so well. For teams that are still fighting for playoff spots, lines get artificially inflated for that reason alone even though they are not playing well lately. For teams eliminated from the playoff hunt, they are usually playing fellow non-playoff contenders if they are favored after two losses and those types of meaningless games are generally crapshoots with the underdogs having inherent value. This angle went 2-1 in Week 16. Qualifiers: New York Jets +3½ to 4 at Buffalo and Philadelphia +7 to 8 at New York Giants.
Angle #3 - During the month of December only, play on any road underdog
that was an underdog in each of the last two games (73-43-1, 62.9% ATS): Bettors
generally tend to stay away from teams that are often underdogs at any
time of year, but that becomes even more pronounced in December when
these constant dogs are either playing playoff contenders or are
underdogs to non-playoff contenders, which is an indication of how
poorly perceived the teams are. Thus, books are able to pad these lines
and still get public money on the favorites. This angle split 1-1 in
Week 16. Qualifiers: Arizona +17 to 18, Baltimore +3 to 4, Jacksonville +4, Kansas
City +17 to 18 and Philadelphia +7 to 8.
It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs taking on conference foes that they are quite familiar with.. This angle won its only play in Week 16. Qualifier: St. Louis +11.
Very few angles epitomize our contrarian mindset as well as this one does! Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are becoming overvalued. Yes, fading these teams may take some courage at times, but check out the winning percentage of this angle over a nice-sized sampling. This angle lost its only play in Week 16. Qualifiers: Kansas City +17 to 18 at Denver and Dallas + 3 to 4 at Washington.
Double angles, ARIZ, JAX, Philly
Triple angle KC
0
Posted:
#18
Correction Philly also Triple Angle
Got late NBA system email today. Did not post or play. The bad news, Atlanta won at 2% or 2 unit play. The good news, two other plays lost and will now be a 2 game chase! Both at 2%. Will update lines when I get the plays. Don't always know on GM1 which team is play on GM2. Record for system 31-5.
We will have 2 more chase plays coming, don't know what days they play as of yet but will update what I know on Sunday.
Got late NBA system email today. Did not post or play. The bad news, Atlanta won at 2% or 2 unit play. The good news, two other plays lost and will now be a 2 game chase! Both at 2%. Will update lines when I get the plays. Don't always know on GM1 which team is play on GM2. Record for system 31-5.
We will have 2 more chase plays coming, don't know what days they play as of yet but will update what I know on Sunday.
0
Posted:
#21
[Quote: Originally Posted by Angle4U999] Some info I heard on the Norm Hitzges show on The Ticket radio from Dallas.
Hey McMurphy from One Flew Over the Coookooo's nest or that crazy Madman holed up in the Stanley Hotel up in Estes Park COLO
. did you listen to any of the Norm-a'Thon on Friday? Not Badddd radio
I get NORM
I'm a P-1 from Day One and I really enjoy the original Andy Panda and his unique sports offerings, interviews AND angles
but.........this is #9 opportunity to show the WORLD that he is better than a Heisman winner from Copperas Cove, TX via Baylor
It is time for Tony person to show up or shut up
This is the game of TONY's career
Go COWBOYS even though I think seahawks can come destroy girls' next week at Deathstar
Hey McMurphy from One Flew Over the Coookooo's nest or that crazy Madman holed up in the Stanley Hotel up in Estes Park COLO
. did you listen to any of the Norm-a'Thon on Friday? Not Badddd radio I get NORMI'm a P-1 from Day One and I really enjoy the original Andy Panda and his unique sports offerings, interviews AND angles
but.........this is #9 opportunity to show the WORLD that he is better than a Heisman winner from Copperas Cove, TX via Baylor
It is time for Tony person to show up or shut up
This is the game of TONY's career Go COWBOYS even though I think seahawks can come destroy girls' next week at Deathstar0
Posted:
#22
Quote Originally Posted by Angle4U999:
We have now arrived at Week 17, the final week of the NFL regular season. This week, we are carrying over four NFL Trends & Angles that collectively went a slightly profitable 4-3 ATS in Week 16.
As those of you that have followed us in the past know, all of our season-long trends go back to 2005, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.
In addition to the four angles we are carrying over from last week, we lead off with a nice contrarian angle that has had a great season but that had the last few weeks off. Also, some of the angles we are carrying over are for December games only, so please pay close attention to the parameters.
You will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams, such as in our leading angle. We are not using those terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games.
Angle #1 - Play on any Bad Team on the road that was an underdog in each of its last four games (101-68-2, 59.8% ATS)Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the dregs of the league, and on the road no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a nice sampling. Qualifiers: Arizona +17 to 18, Jacksonville +4, Kansas City +17 to 18 and Philadelphia +7 to 8.
Angle #2 - During the month of December only, play against any favorite coming off of two or more losses (55-32-2, 63.2% ATS): There are two reasons why this angle has worked so well. For teams that are still fighting for playoff spots, lines get artificially inflated for that reason alone even though they are not playing well lately. For teams eliminated from the playoff hunt, they are usually playing fellow non-playoff contenders if they are favored after two losses and those types of meaningless games are generally crapshoots with the underdogs having inherent value. This angle went 2-1 in Week 16. Qualifiers: New York Jets +3½ to 4 at Buffalo and Philadelphia +7 to 8 at New York Giants.
Angle #3 - During the month of December only, play on any road underdog that was an underdog in each of the last two games (73-43-1, 62.9% ATS): Bettors generally tend to stay away from teams that are often underdogs at any time of year, but that becomes even more pronounced in December when these constant dogs are either playing playoff contenders or are underdogs to non-playoff contenders, which is an indication of how poorly perceived the teams are. Thus, books are able to pad these lines and still get public money on the favorites. This angle split 1-1 in Week 16. Qualifiers: Arizona +17 to 18, Baltimore +3 to 4, Jacksonville +4, Kansas City +17 to 18 and Philadelphia +7 to 8.
Angle #4 - Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (172-112-5, 60.6% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs taking on conference foes that they are quite familiar with.. This angle won its only play in Week 16. Qualifier: St. Louis +11.
Angle #5 - Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (62-44-3, 56.5% ATS): Very few angles epitomize our contrarian mindset as well as this one does! Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are becoming overvalued. Yes, fading these teams may take some courage at times, but check out the winning percentage of this angle over a nice-sized sampling. This angle lost its only play in Week 16. Qualifiers: Kansas City +17 to 18 at Denver and Dallas + 3 to 4 at Washington.
Double angles, ARIZ, JAX
Triple angle KC, Philly
Once again, posting first time cropped some of my Angle numbers, titles and percentages, so I will correct everything on this one.
I'm not endorsing all or any of these plays as of now. All are dog plays and some weeks have sucked. Any thoughts are appreciated. I can't believe square betters that take Denver every week will be able to keep it up, but hey how can you take KC without holding your nose and drinking a fifth of 100 proof whiskey! At least Philly has Vick back, if that helps.
I remember in early 2000's that the Patriots covered something like 10 in a row or more no matter how many points were given (until the Super Bowl). The books were taking a bath! You never know if something like that can happen again with a machine like Denver.
0
Posted:
#23
Hey Crusher, I am also P1 from day 1. Remember that obnoxious guy with the New York accent that worked at noon? I can't remember his name but he didn't last very long at the little Ticket. I can almost remember it, just not now. Please refresh my memory. What a joke he was! Wait, I've got it, Rocko Pendola!
Sorry about your Cowboy rose-colored glasses, but Romo doesn't have to do anything. His job has always been safe and the team is always ripe for choking with penalties, mistakes, etc. I won't be surprised if they win, but I certainly won't be surprised if they lose. I bet season wins under 9.5 and already cashed that ticket.
Can't you just hear it now, after the game Romo comes out in his beret or whatever that hat is and says "We just have to get better". How many times have you heard that?
I'm waiting for Jerry to have a cardiac event in the owner's box and Daniel Snyder having a cardiologist standing by to make sure and revive him. Everyone knows that Jerry is the best friend of every Cowboy's opponent! Sort of like the way Mack Brown is loved by OU fans!
Hey, thanks for chiming in. The more the merrier here. Good to have you. Welcome aboard!
I could use another good cryfeston the post-game show, but putting it off another week will really piss off the die-hards after another playoff loss. I am kinda hoping they can take their act to Green Bay and get a dose of cold weather and some real football fans to give them hell!
Sorry about your Cowboy rose-colored glasses, but Romo doesn't have to do anything. His job has always been safe and the team is always ripe for choking with penalties, mistakes, etc. I won't be surprised if they win, but I certainly won't be surprised if they lose. I bet season wins under 9.5 and already cashed that ticket.
Can't you just hear it now, after the game Romo comes out in his beret or whatever that hat is and says "We just have to get better". How many times have you heard that?
I'm waiting for Jerry to have a cardiac event in the owner's box and Daniel Snyder having a cardiologist standing by to make sure and revive him. Everyone knows that Jerry is the best friend of every Cowboy's opponent! Sort of like the way Mack Brown is loved by OU fans!
Hey, thanks for chiming in. The more the merrier here. Good to have you. Welcome aboard!
I could use another good cryfest
on the post-game show, but putting it off another week will really piss off the die-hards after another playoff loss. I am kinda hoping they can take their act to Green Bay and get a dose of cold weather and some real football fans to give them hell!0
Hot Forum Topics
