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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    THE CHASERS LOUNGE...

    123 ... 91011 Next Last»
    McShady
    mjnorman59
    kinggeorge27
    Moth61
    Angle4U999
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 23589
    Posts: 265
    123 ... 91011 Next Last»
     
    McShady
    McShady
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 11:17 AM ET #1

    WS starts tmrw and I will have my 3 game Chase when the series moves to detroit....

    If you have any original idea or concept in any sport where a 3 Game Chase can be successful Im interested in hearing. Maybe we can help make it better. 

    Some criteria...
    -3 game window involving the same team
    -juice never exceeding -120
    -FG, 1H, 1Q all are an option
    -totals or sides


    Im not looking for anyone to post their Cards, but if a play is posted, please back it up with an Angle or Original Trend. Thx
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    WS starts tmrw and I will have my 3 game Chase when the series moves to detroit....

    If you have any original idea or concept in any sport where a 3 Game Chase can be successful Im interested in hearing. Maybe we can help make it better. 

    Some criteria...
    -3 game window involving the same team
    -juice never exceeding -120
    -FG, 1H, 1Q all are an option
    -totals or sides


    Im not looking for anyone to post their Cards, but if a play is posted, please back it up with an Angle or Original Trend. Thx
     
    mjnorman59
    mjnorman59
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 11:33 AM ET #2

    My personal chases for the world series (and some stats) - also will chase whatever McShady and Semper have in store:

    Chases:
    Will start under chase in GM1 and possible F5 under chase (unless Shady and Semper advise the over)
    Away scores first (hit all series in 2012)
    Home scores first (hit all series in 2012)
    Score first loses (hit all except DET/NYY) and tried the double dip on SF/STL (didn't work) 

    Playoff trends 2010-2012 (2012 only):
    Series Played  20 (6)
    Away Team Scores First 1x in series 19-1 (6-0)
    Away Team Scores First 1x in first 3 games 18-2 (6-0)
    Home Team Scores First 1x in series 19-1 (6-0)
    Home Team Scores First 1x in first 3 games 17-3 (4-2)
    Scores First Loses 1x in series 19-1 (5-1)
    Scores First Loses 1x in first 3 games 16-4 (5-1)


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    My personal chases for the world series (and some stats) - also will chase whatever McShady and Semper have in store:

    Chases:
    Will start under chase in GM1 and possible F5 under chase (unless Shady and Semper advise the over)
    Away scores first (hit all series in 2012)
    Home scores first (hit all series in 2012)
    Score first loses (hit all except DET/NYY) and tried the double dip on SF/STL (didn't work) 

    Playoff trends 2010-2012 (2012 only):
    Series Played  20 (6)
    Away Team Scores First 1x in series 19-1 (6-0)
    Away Team Scores First 1x in first 3 games 18-2 (6-0)
    Home Team Scores First 1x in series 19-1 (6-0)
    Home Team Scores First 1x in first 3 games 17-3 (4-2)
    Scores First Loses 1x in series 19-1 (5-1)
    Scores First Loses 1x in first 3 games 16-4 (5-1)


     
    McShady
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 11:52 AM ET #3

    @code

    Nord playing CL today. Thinkin the may get blown out. The OVER price looks good. Got anything?
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    @code

    Nord playing CL today. Thinkin the may get blown out. The OVER price looks good. Got anything?
     
    McShady
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 11:54 AM ET #4

    We were on our way to de Palm island today when a storm came in. So im in the casino infull degenerate mode playing craps and hitting up the sportsbook
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    We were on our way to de Palm island today when a storm came in. So im in the casino infull degenerate mode playing craps and hitting up the sportsbook
     
    kinggeorge27
    kinggeorge27
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 12:08 PM ET #5

    If you are in degenerate mode...who's your favorite Sun Belt team tonight? 
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    If you are in degenerate mode...who's your favorite Sun Belt team tonight? 
     
    McShady
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 12:49 PM ET #6

    @KingG

    I dont track any of these teams tonight, so I wont have a play. But I venture to say Newfie is on ULLA
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    @KingG

    I dont track any of these teams tonight, so I wont have a play. But I venture to say Newfie is on ULLA
     
    kinggeorge27
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 1:03 PM ET #7

    I took Arky up to +7 at -155. I hope ULL wins by two field goals and both Newfie and I take it home.


    BOL on the tables Shady, hope you have a great one! 
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    I took Arky up to +7 at -155. I hope ULL wins by two field goals and both Newfie and I take it home.


    BOL on the tables Shady, hope you have a great one! 
     
    Moth61
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 2:21 PM ET #8

    McShady, why did I pick Buffalo?

    In the NFL, I keep track of Home/Away teams that have won and Fav/Dogs that have won.  When one side is lopsided, I bet the opposite. So thru 6 weeks, Favs had covered 36 times and Dogs had covered 55 times. I go by the lines in my football pool which may not be the closing line. So my picks were mostly favorites to cover. I figure that the oddsmaker, if they did their job right, F/U and H/A would balance out by the end of the year.

     

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    McShady, why did I pick Buffalo?

    In the NFL, I keep track of Home/Away teams that have won and Fav/Dogs that have won.  When one side is lopsided, I bet the opposite. So thru 6 weeks, Favs had covered 36 times and Dogs had covered 55 times. I go by the lines in my football pool which may not be the closing line. So my picks were mostly favorites to cover. I figure that the oddsmaker, if they did their job right, F/U and H/A would balance out by the end of the year.

     

     
    Angle4U999
    Angle4U999
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 2:40 PM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by McShady:

    We were on our way to de Palm island today when a storm came in. So im in the casino infull degenerate mode playing craps and hitting up the sportsbook


    One of may favorite strategies with craps is to always play something on the "YO" (11 for those who don't know) which is a one roll bet that pays 15-1.

    Plus, when a Field number hits, I jump on the Field until it loses, then when it hits again I jump back on it looking for a streak.

    Of course I always put chips behind the pass line for the odds bet depending on which number sometimes I play more. It's been a while and I can't remember exactly how many.
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    Quote Originally Posted by McShady:

    We were on our way to de Palm island today when a storm came in. So im in the casino infull degenerate mode playing craps and hitting up the sportsbook


    One of may favorite strategies with craps is to always play something on the "YO" (11 for those who don't know) which is a one roll bet that pays 15-1.

    Plus, when a Field number hits, I jump on the Field until it loses, then when it hits again I jump back on it looking for a streak.

    Of course I always put chips behind the pass line for the odds bet depending on which number sometimes I play more. It's been a while and I can't remember exactly how many.
     
    Angle4U999
    Angle4U999
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 2:44 PM ET #10

    Thx McShady for the 4-team teaser that fininished with Chi last night. I had Det +7.5 so I won both ways. Lost the under on SF/Cards.

    Anybody thinking about going against Verlander or chasing the Giants after Verlander?

    Thx McShady for starting new thread and keep up the sheet! You sir are a class act!
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    Thx McShady for the 4-team teaser that fininished with Chi last night. I had Det +7.5 so I won both ways. Lost the under on SF/Cards.

    Anybody thinking about going against Verlander or chasing the Giants after Verlander?

    Thx McShady for starting new thread and keep up the sheet! You sir are a class act!
     
    Angle4U999
    Angle4U999
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 2:46 PM ET #11

    I meant to say thanks for starting the new thread and "keeping the sheet up".


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    I meant to say thanks for starting the new thread and "keeping the sheet up".


     
    McShady
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 2:52 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by Angle4U999:

    I meant to say thanks for starting the new thread and "keeping the sheet up".



    I do it for the guys with an IQ ov60. I wont be answering any questions about it. If u dont know how to use it, cash out ur Sportsbook and take up fishing, cause u will never win at the game. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angle4U999:

    I meant to say thanks for starting the new thread and "keeping the sheet up".



    I do it for the guys with an IQ ov60. I wont be answering any questions about it. If u dont know how to use it, cash out ur Sportsbook and take up fishing, cause u will never win at the game. 
     
    Bettingbrothers
    Bettingbrothers
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 3:19 PM ET #13

    @Shady - What exactly is a spreadsheet?

    jk

    @Everyone - Has anyone (I have been meaning to but have not had the time) looked at NFL teams the week before a Thursday night game? I've had an eye on this and it seems like, due to two weeks of prep work, teams don't fair as well the week leading up to the short week. I'm interested in a few things:
    A. Thursday night road team the week before the Thursday night game;
    B. Thursday night home team the week before the Thursday night game; and,
    C. Thursday night performance road/away and/or fave/dog.

    I know that there is a small sample size on this but it might be worth checking out for a chase. I'll update if I'm able to get to it the next day or two.
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    @Shady - What exactly is a spreadsheet?

    jk

    @Everyone - Has anyone (I have been meaning to but have not had the time) looked at NFL teams the week before a Thursday night game? I've had an eye on this and it seems like, due to two weeks of prep work, teams don't fair as well the week leading up to the short week. I'm interested in a few things:
    A. Thursday night road team the week before the Thursday night game;
    B. Thursday night home team the week before the Thursday night game; and,
    C. Thursday night performance road/away and/or fave/dog.

    I know that there is a small sample size on this but it might be worth checking out for a chase. I'll update if I'm able to get to it the next day or two.
     
    Moth61
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 3:46 PM ET #14

    Betting Bros

    Week 1, Chicago (home) beat Indy 41 - 21, Green Bay (home)  lost to SF 30 - 22,  Thursday Green Bay (home) beat Chicago 23-10.

    something like this?

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    Betting Bros

    Week 1, Chicago (home) beat Indy 41 - 21, Green Bay (home)  lost to SF 30 - 22,  Thursday Green Bay (home) beat Chicago 23-10.

    something like this?

     
    Angle4U999
    Angle4U999
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 3:51 PM ET #15

    GL at the tables/sportsbook Shady. Don't forget the YO!

    Angle out.
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    GL at the tables/sportsbook Shady. Don't forget the YO!

    Angle out.
     
    Go_Nads
    Go_Nads
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 3:55 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by Bettingbrothers:

    @Shady - What exactly is a spreadsheet?


    jk

    @Everyone - Has anyone (I have been meaning to but have not had the time) looked at NFL teams the week before a Thursday night game? I've had an eye on this and it seems like, due to two weeks of prep work, teams don't fair as well the week leading up to the short week. I'm interested in a few things:
    A. Thursday night road team the week before the Thursday night game;
    B. Thursday night home team the week before the Thursday night game; and,
    C. Thursday night performance road/away and/or fave/dog.

    I know that there is a small sample size on this but it might be worth checking out for a chase. I'll update if I'm able to get to it the next day or two.

    Not sure if you guys generally try to look at data like this for the current year, or over a number of years.  Here is what I came up with quickly, using https://killersports.com/nfl.py/query?&sid=guest

    Since 2009:
    Game before team plays at HOME on Thursday
    n:day=Thursday and season>2009 and n:H
    11-13-1 ATS
    16-9 O/U
    Game before team plays on ROAD on Thursday
    n:day=Thursday and season>2009 and n:A
    11-14 ATS
    15-10 O/U

    Wasn't sure what you were looking for on the 3rd option.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettingbrothers:

    @Shady - What exactly is a spreadsheet?


    jk

    @Everyone - Has anyone (I have been meaning to but have not had the time) looked at NFL teams the week before a Thursday night game? I've had an eye on this and it seems like, due to two weeks of prep work, teams don't fair as well the week leading up to the short week. I'm interested in a few things:
    A. Thursday night road team the week before the Thursday night game;
    B. Thursday night home team the week before the Thursday night game; and,
    C. Thursday night performance road/away and/or fave/dog.

    I know that there is a small sample size on this but it might be worth checking out for a chase. I'll update if I'm able to get to it the next day or two.

    Not sure if you guys generally try to look at data like this for the current year, or over a number of years.  Here is what I came up with quickly, using https://killersports.com/nfl.py/query?&sid=guest

    Since 2009:
    Game before team plays at HOME on Thursday
    n:day=Thursday and season>2009 and n:H
    11-13-1 ATS
    16-9 O/U
    Game before team plays on ROAD on Thursday
    n:day=Thursday and season>2009 and n:A
    11-14 ATS
    15-10 O/U

    Wasn't sure what you were looking for on the 3rd option.
     
    McShady
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 3:59 PM ET #17

    Yo Nads! I bet ur sad to see the CARDS Lose and their #1 Fan 
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    Yo Nads! I bet ur sad to see the CARDS Lose and their #1 Fan 
     
    Codearmani
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 4:09 PM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by McShady:

    @code

    Nord playing CL today. Thinkin the may get blown out. The OVER price looks good. Got anything?

    Just cam home from my mothers birthday, so i havent been posting anything. I have FCN +1.5 but that doesent help much now for you guys. I have more time the next few days with the great football schedule. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by McShady:

    @code

    Nord playing CL today. Thinkin the may get blown out. The OVER price looks good. Got anything?

    Just cam home from my mothers birthday, so i havent been posting anything. I have FCN +1.5 but that doesent help much now for you guys. I have more time the next few days with the great football schedule. 
     
    Go_Nads
    Go_Nads
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 4:11 PM ET #19

    LOL.  Now we get to hear about the Miami Heat for the next 8 months.
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    LOL.  Now we get to hear about the Miami Heat for the next 8 months.
     
    McShady
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 4:43 PM ET #20

    Who's everyone pick for the WS. If the Tigers were against the Cards. I would take the Tigers. But against the Giants, gotta take the Giants. Just pondering when I should take the Series Bet on them...
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    Who's everyone pick for the WS. If the Tigers were against the Cards. I would take the Tigers. But against the Giants, gotta take the Giants. Just pondering when I should take the Series Bet on them...
     
    tkizzle
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 4:49 PM ET #21

    McShady,

     

    I like Giants.  Three teams that swept LCS and faced a team that won in Game 7 of their respective LCS, lost.  It happened to the Tigers in 2006 ironically enough.

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    McShady,

     

    I like Giants.  Three teams that swept LCS and faced a team that won in Game 7 of their respective LCS, lost.  It happened to the Tigers in 2006 ironically enough.

     
    nase
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 5:04 PM ET #22

    In regards to the WS, I was leaning on DET based on pitching and them having Verlander for possibly 3 starts. That being said, SF definitely has some momentum going into the finale. I see DET getting a split in SF. After that, I'm stumped.
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    In regards to the WS, I was leaning on DET based on pitching and them having Verlander for possibly 3 starts. That being said, SF definitely has some momentum going into the finale. I see DET getting a split in SF. After that, I'm stumped.
     
    ApexPredator
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 5:17 PM ET #23

    Giants. Starting pitching isn't as sexy as tigers but good enough to completely shut down cards. Hopefully lincecum doesn't start, sadly he's better as the oh shit relief pitcher this postseason. Scores close or tied going into the last 3 innings and sf is looking money. I wouldn't be surprised if zito gets the w tomorrow, 13 straight w's when he's on the mound. those bats really rally for him
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    Giants. Starting pitching isn't as sexy as tigers but good enough to completely shut down cards. Hopefully lincecum doesn't start, sadly he's better as the oh shit relief pitcher this postseason. Scores close or tied going into the last 3 innings and sf is looking money. I wouldn't be surprised if zito gets the w tomorrow, 13 straight w's when he's on the mound. those bats really rally for him
     
    randognsac
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 5:36 PM ET #24

    Isn't Newfie on Arkansas St. +4.5?
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    Isn't Newfie on Arkansas St. +4.5?
     
     
    Bettingbrothers
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2012 - 5:36 PM ET #25

    Go_Nads - That was perfect! Thanks. Unfortunately it didn't have the results I was expecting. Thanks for the lesson though!
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    Go_Nads - That was perfect! Thanks. Unfortunately it didn't have the results I was expecting. Thanks for the lesson though!
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