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Posted: #451

seattle has lost 4 straight

never wager on team that has lost 3 or more in a row

never wager against team that has won 3 or more

todays plays

dodgers+111

masterson/shieldsU 7.5

 
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Posted: #452
dont forget STL - WAS today bud !
 
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Posted: #453
STL won, but they were favored.. and the Nats are playing against Lowe(he's 15th on Sagarin)

Only play that fit on sides is LA
 
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Posted: #454

Got an interesting situation today:

Book A Phils Lee -140 @ Cards W'brook +120 = Play Cards vrs 24 Lee

Book B Lee -160 W'brook +140 = NP Phils -160

Comments welcomed

 
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Posted: #455

These are the plays I have today:

SDG +105

TEX +110

LAA +125

PIT +105?

STL +130?

NYY +130?

 

Not sure about the last three because they are on losing streaks but the way I interpret it is you don't play AGAINST a 3 game streak (winnig or losing). Any insight?

 
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Posted: #456
Quote Originally Posted by prowoody18:

These are the plays I have today:

SDG +105

TEX +110

LAA +125

PIT +105?

STL +130?

NYY +130?

 

Not sure about the last three because they are on losing streaks but the way I interpret it is you don't play AGAINST a 3 game streak (winnig or losing). Any insight?


This is a great point. The original post says: 1. Don't bet against any 3 game streaks whether it be losing or winning streaks.

To me, the key word there is AGAINST. Posters on this thread have been staying away from games because the team they are betting on has a 3+ game winning or losing streak. My interpretation is that you should only stay away if the team you are betting against has a 3+ game winning or losing streak. I think this interpretation is correct. 

With that said, the Yanks and the Angels are not plays in my book because they are both facing top 20 pitchers in the Sagarin Ratings - David Price (#13) and Brett Anderson (#19), respectively. 

 
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Posted: #457
Quote Originally Posted by BroadwayBob:

Got an interesting situation today:

Book A Phils Lee -140 @ Cards W'brook +120 = Play Cards vrs 24 Lee

Book B Lee -160 W'brook +140 = NP Phils -160

Comments welcomed


Again, lets look at the original post. Rule #2 says: Do not bet any underdog which opens at more than +150.

Since neither book has the UNDERDOG at more than +150, this bet has the green light in my interpretation.


 
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Posted: #458

Thanks for confirming that for me, and I will double check my numbers on those 2 plays. What site do you use for stats because the site I have been using has Price 28 and Anderson 33.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/player-stat/earned-run-average

 
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Posted: #459
Nevermind I wasn't breaking it down by league. Thanks again.
 
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Posted: #460
Quote Originally Posted by BroadwayBob:

Got an interesting situation today:

Book A Phils Lee -140 @ Cards W'brook +120 = Play Cards vrs 24 Lee

Book B Lee -160 W'brook +140 = NP Phils -160

Comments welcomed

 

STL is on a three game losing streak

 
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Posted: #461
I don't think Sagarin works some of those pitchers in the top 20 Haven't even started a game.
 
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Posted: #462
Philly just got swept
 
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Posted: #463
Quote Originally Posted by prowoody18:

Thanks for confirming that for me, and I will double check my numbers on those 2 plays. What site do you use for stats because the site I have been using has Price 28 and Anderson 33.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/player-stat/earned-run-average


If you read this thread the whole way through, you will find that some people use ERA rankings and some use Sagarin Ratings, which are not purely based on ERA. Here is the link for these ratings, which I have been using:


 
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Posted: #464
Quote Originally Posted by yousajiveturkey:

 

STL is on a three game losing streak

THANKS FOR POINTING THAT OUT  
 
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Posted: #465
Quote Originally Posted by yousajiveturkey:

 

STL is on a three game losing streak


If my interpretation of this system, it doesn't matter if the team you are betting on has a 3+ game winning or losing streak, it only matters if the team you are betting AGAINST is on a 3+ winning or losing streak. in other words, STL was a play today. someone please explain if you have another interpretation.
 
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Posted: #466
I can help with the research on a daily basis to help everyone out.. lol might as well help where i can cause im already doing my research on other plays.. will post a bit later
 
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Posted: #467
SF
NYM
TEX
LAA

you can skip out on Mets if you want since Nolasco is 22 on Sagarins.

GL ALL!
 
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Posted: #468

Any reason not to add:

BJs

Padres

Brews

All are dogs that are on 3+ win streaks

 
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Posted: #469
Quote Originally Posted by JNaylor07:


This is a great point. The original post says: 1. Don't bet against any 3 game streaks whether it be losing or winning streaks.

To me, the key word there is AGAINST. Posters on this thread have been staying away from games because the team they are betting on has a 3+ game winning or losing streak. My interpretation is that you should only stay away if the team you are betting against has a 3+ game winning or losing streak. I think this interpretation is correct. 

With that said, the Yanks and the Angels are not plays in my book because they are both facing top 20 pitchers in the Sagarin Ratings - David Price (#13) and Brett Anderson (#19), respectively. 


https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/571442/

First, eliminate games in which the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row and/or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. This prevents you from throwing away money on an underdog on a bad skid or an underdog facing a red-hot offensive team whose bats may more than make up for its own mediocre pitching.
 
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Posted: #470

The BJs and Padres are plays. The Brewers are playing against the Dodgers who are on a 3 game skid. Don't bet against teams on a 3 game streak.

 
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Posted: #471
Quote Originally Posted by darkstar77:


https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/571442/

First, eliminate games in which the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row and/or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. This prevents you from throwing away money on an underdog on a bad skid or an underdog facing a red-hot offensive team whose bats may more than make up for its own mediocre pitching.

Thank you for clarifying. 
 
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Posted: #472

no.. only the 4 plays that i posted fall under this system.. any team on streaks, whether winning or losing, are automatically canceled.

GL all

 
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Posted: #473
Quote Originally Posted by yousajiveturkey:

no.. only the 4 plays that i posted fall under this system.. any team on streaks, whether winning or losing, are automatically canceled.

GL all


you have a source to prove this? because according to this article, you are mistaken: https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/571442/
 
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Posted: #474
the op says to avoid betting on any type of streak. the vegas insider article states that we should avoid betting on losing streaks, but does not mention anything about avoiding underdogs on winning streaks.

Has anyone compared (back tested) these 2 methods? I dont understand why someone would avoid betting on underdogs who are on a win streak.
 
 
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Posted: #475
Quote Originally Posted by trychome:

the op says to avoid betting on any type of streak. the vegas insider article states that we should avoid betting on losing streaks, but does not mention anything about avoiding underdogs on winning streaks.

Has anyone compared (back tested) these 2 methods? I dont understand why someone would avoid betting on underdogs who are on a win streak.

Original post says: 1. Don't bet against any 3 game streaks whether it be losing or winning streaks.

Key word is against. I think this means if the favorite has a 3 game winning streak, dont bet on them to lose (or, in other words, bet against that streak). If the underdog has a three game losing streak or more, dont bet on the underdog to win (or, again, bet against that streak). This matches the explanation from vegas insider.
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