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The Royals over the Rays tonight in Tampa

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Posted: #26
Got beat up finally last night but felt it coming so I wagered light.Nice write up however I wouldnt consider the A's that crappy but that was about the only thing I could find wrong with your write up.We will see tonight,as I would rather lay my money on a dog every so often than to lay -220 or so on a fav...Ill give them a shot tonight and thanks for the knowledgeable write-up!
 
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Posted: #27

Very Nice write up

 

I dont care who wins as long as it goes over 7

 
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Posted: #28
I dont wager alot but I started with 100 2 weeks ago and built it up to 400 
STRAIGHT BETAug 21MLB [919] KANSAS CITY ROYALS +220 [L HOCHEVAR -R/D PRICE -L]15.00 USD / 33.00 USD4979123
STRAIGHT BETAug 21MLB [4919] KANSAS CITY ROYALS +1+170 [L HOCHEVAR -R/D PRICE -L]15.00 USD / 25.50 USD4979124
STRAIGHT BETAug 21MLB [5919] KANSAS CITY ROYALS -1½+380 [L HOCHEVAR -R/D PRICE -L]            15.00 USD / 57.00 USD
 
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Posted: #29
I see this after betting TB. Oh well, shit happens!!! Maybe you and Master should get together sometimes...
 
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Posted: #30
only thing i can say is price is alot better this year than last so those last year stats should be exiled
 
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Posted: #31

i understand the angle about Hellickson...  without that passed ball, maybe the perfect game goes into extras...  and he pitched a hell of a game....

but if the rays were so worried about taking care of Hellickson, then why sit Longoria last night??  They could have rested him today or tomorrow...

 

 

That was the manager's decision.  Joe Maddon was thinking about resting a few people.  His players were thinking of kicking butt for Hellickson.

 
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Posted: #32
I bet Bator loves my square parlay tonight: Cards +1.5 Rays +1.5 

1k to win 490
 
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Posted: #33
Great read Mr. Bator.  However, I see a flaw in your double-loss bounce-back theory.  Let's take an even closer look at the 5 games you mentioned from this season:

April 25th - beat the Indians in Cleveland 
(U. Jimenez [R]  ranked #221)
 
May 12th - beat the White Sox in Chicago
(C. Sale [L] ranked #17)

May 27th - beat the Orioles in Baltimore
(B. Matusz [L] ranked #204)
 
June 14th - beat the Brewers at home
(Walk off 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th against Axford)

July 31st - beat the Indians at home
(D. Lowe [R] ranked #193)


Are you really impressed that three of those wins came against Matusz (sent down to minors), Lowe (released by the Tribe), Jimenez (should have been released by the Tribe) or a blown save by the Brewers Bullpen?

They did beat Chris Sale as a lefty - which is important because the Royals rank #18 offensively against lefties compared to #10 against righties.  But of course, it's baseball, any team can beat any other team on any given night.  The Royals seem to like Chris Sale for some reason.  But the other victories don't suggest to me that somebody in the clubhouse is making a speech before those games proclaiming they must not lose three of Hochevar's starts in a row.  Those victories were the product of favorable match-ups three of the five times, a blown save once and a legitimate defeat of a top ranked starter once.

With that said, your argument regarding the likelihood that the west coast hangover begins tonight is far more compelling.  The books have clearly over-priced the Rays and there are more than enough reasons to justify a bet on the Royals for the line value alone.  But this notion that the Royals will somehow rise to the occasion on Hochevar's third start doesn't sell me.  It's just as likely that this trend regresses to the mean as it does continue.  To me, it's merely coincidence.
 
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Posted: #34

I liked your post, Hypnos2004.  Thanks for the info.

 

 
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Posted: #35
always appreciate your opinions MrBator.  Good luck tonight
 
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Posted: #36
also note longoria rested last night
 
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Posted: #37
Anyone else juiced for this game?

I can't recall the last time I was so interested in see how a Rays/Royals game played out lol
 
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Posted: #38
Bator

Great writeup.
 
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Posted: #39
Compelling arguments and points on both sides.
 
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Posted: #40

si1ly,

 

5-0 this season, but 13-3 over the last three seasons?  From this sub .500 team?  That would be a major coincidence.  It's not that the players rally around Hochevar (or maybe they do, but we wouldn't kow that), it's that Hochevar pitches MUCH better after his team's lost the last two times with him.

 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

i understand the angle about Hellickson...  without that passed ball, maybe the perfect game goes into extras...  and he pitched a hell of a game....

but if the rays were so worried about taking care of Hellickson, then why sit Longoria last night??  They could have rested him today or tomorrow...

 

 

That was the manager's decision.  Joe Maddon was thinking about resting a few people.  His players were thinking of kicking butt for Hellickson.




the royals certainly can put up runs...  factor in a smaller strike zone courtesy of Paul Emmel, and anything can happen...

good luck with your bets!!

RUNS RUNS RUNS


 
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Posted: #42

5-0 this season, but 13-3 over the last three seasons?  From this sub .500 team? 

 

 

 

13-3 from a team that is otherwise 71 games under .500 the last three seasons.

 
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Posted: #43
Only three Royals (Butler, Gordon, Pena) have faced Price. Royals have been horrible in unfamiliarity spots. Royal fan so hope you're right. GL
 
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Posted: #44
u lost all credibility once u said my halos was a crappy team
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

si1ly,

 

5-0 this season, but 13-3 over the last three seasons?  From this sub .500 team?  That would be a major coincidence.  It's not that the players rally around Hochevar (or maybe they do, but we wouldn't kow that), it's that Hochevar pitches MUCH better after his team's lost the last two times with him.


16 games out of 486 that the Royals played?  I'm too lazy to go back and check, but I would bet that a number of those starts also featured favorable match-ups - especially the 4 out of 11 of those in the previous two seasons where the Royals were favored.

How about the trend that Gilmo574 dug about about Hochevar followoing a QS:




"Luke Hochevar is one of my favorite pitchers to fade... and this fade is after he pitches a Quality Start; his last outing, -vs- the Athletics, he went 7IP giving up 3ER, making it a Quality Start.


Since 2010, here are Luke Hochevar's stats after he pitches a Quality Start:

9-17  /  5.62 ERA  /  1.40 WHIP


YES  -  Luke Hochevar did pitch a complete game shutout -vs- the Rays back on June 25th of this year... but that was not the same Rays.  And, that was @ Home.  Luke Hochevar is a waaay different pitcher on the road away from Kauffman Stadium, and I've done some stat crunching since 2009.  Check it out:

15-22  /  6.18 ERA  /  1.49 WHIP


> His stats in 2 career starts @ The Trop:
0-1  /  9.31 ERA (9.2IP, 10ER)  /  2.17 WHIP (16H, 4BB)"




My point is, if you dig for long enough you can find trends like this everywhere that favor both sides of the bet.  You'll drive yourself crazy.  

So Hochevar is fade material after a QS, but you should back him if he lost two of them in a row prior to that?  What does it mean if both scenarios occur on the same night?

I just checked, the water in my toilet is still spinning the usual direction.. so it doesn't look like the world is going to end.

 
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Posted: #46

u lost all credibility once u said my halos was a crappy team

 

 

 

Okay, how about "They had a crappy weekend"?

 
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Posted: #47
So Hochevar is fade material after a QS, but you should back him if he lost two of them in a row prior to that?  What does it mean if both scenarios occur on the same night?

 

 

 

When those two scenariois occur on the same night, it means fire away on the Royals.

 
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Posted: #48
I wouldn't use a trend that has a sample size of 3% of games played across three year with a dozen teams and different pitching/roster match-ups as reason for a wager.

Simplify:

Will Tampa Bay with Price on the mound win this game 72.2% of the time?  Certainly not.  My model has them projected around 60.4% and I think that's much closer to the true probability (i.e. an un-inflated line of -152).  Since you're obviously getting better than +152 odds on the Royals, you're on the right side of the value.  But you're still betting on a team that even under good circumstances probably only wins this game 40% of the time.  It's worth the investment if you make this type of value play every time it presents itself, but to say this game stands out among other value bets because Hochevar will somehow elevate his game to avoid a third consecutive loss is nonsense.  Like I said, your "fade the rays" argument was much more compelling than your "tail the royals" argument. 
 
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Posted: #49
"On August 16th of this year, the Rays beat the Angels.  Price went 7 innings, struck out 8, and allowed 3 hits.  In his next start, the Rays, laying -260 at home vs. the Royals......"


I wonder what would be the complete statement for this...


here's comes the butterfly stomach tonight, dank u B
SUPERDOG
 
 
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Posted: #50

too much analysis...you should have just said you like the Royals + money....its easier

gL

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