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Thx Vegas & Geniuses 8/20/12

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Posted: #1
Dear Vegas,
I'm grateful to get steamrolled from time to time, I guess.  Keep them coming?  I see that you've favored a couple teams for Monday each of which have worse records and a starting pitcher on the hill with a higher ERA.  Conrad Consensus and his poker buddies are going start thinking they've struck gold perhaps.  You've favored Cleveland on the road?  And you're favoring SD over Pittsburgh?  These are definitely shiny lures if they can come in. 
Sincerely,
Seabiscuit


 
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Posted: #2
Shiny Lures
Cle -104
SD -105

Fulcrum
TB -175

Missing Ribs
CHC/MIL Over 9 -110


Shiny Lures
33-21 (+6.63 Units)

Fulcrum
11-3 (+8.08 Units)

Missing Ribs
0-2-1 (-2.20 Units)
 
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Posted: #3
keep it goin man 
 
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1) What did I learn from LA Angels loss the other night? 

2) What have we learned from our recent losses in the shiny lures play?




(1) be careful when fading a team that's recently gotten a no-hitter thrown against them. 

(2) Hometeam shiny lures are not as strong, and should perhaps be considered taken off of the board unless they're higher than -130. 



 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by piknroll:

keep it goin man 


Thanks PNR!  This has only been one game, but so far the Fulcrum is stronger. 
 
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Posted: #6
what we learned from the angels over the past 2-3 weeks is play them over every game. they are the 2000 rams of baseball, great offense and no defense.
 
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Posted: #7
"The greatest show on turf"

I remember them.  good call

 
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Posted: #8
I like the shiny lure plays.  I'm at odds with the fulcrum play.  I was leaning on taking a shot at KC +1.5 since TB has played 13 days straight and now have a cross country flight home to deal with.  They've also never seen Will Smith before.

But I think I'd have to be nuts to go against a play thats 11-3 so far this year. 
 
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Posted: #9
Sunday's Recap
Home team 8-7
Favorites 7-8
Overs 6-8

 
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Posted: #10
SD's not favored. I think its a good spot to bet the Padres either way. PIT coming off the longest game this season and depleted.
 
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Posted: #11
If I'm not mistaken, I think all of your plus money Fulcrum bets have all won. 
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

1) What did I learn from LA Angels loss the other night? 

2) What have we learned from our recent losses in the shiny lures play?




(1) be careful when fading a team that's recently gotten a no-hitter thrown against them. 

(2) Hometeam shiny lures are not as strong, and should perhaps be considered taken off of the board unless they're higher than -130. 



Are you for real or is this an attempt to create some learning exercise? You don't learn anything from one or two game samples; the best you could hope for is to form hypotheses which need to be tested. However, consideration should be given to adjusting the qualifying moneylines for the shiny lures based on whether the team is at home or on the road. After all 10 cents or so (don't know the exact number here, just guessing) or so is automatically "built in" to the price of home teams just because they're at home. Backtesting needed!
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by awright22:

If I'm not mistaken, I think all of your plus money Fulcrum bets have all won. 


If that's the case, that's awesome.    I believe it may have lost once out of 3 or 4, but I'm not sure. 

Good for you for tailing it today. 
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Stew Baker:

Are you for real or is this an attempt to create some learning exercise? You don't learn anything from one or two game samples; the best you could hope for is to form hypotheses which need to be tested. However, consideration should be given to adjusting the qualifying moneylines for the shiny lures based on whether the team is at home or on the road. After all 10 cents or so (don't know the exact number here, just guessing) or so is automatically "built in" to the price of home teams just because they're at home. Backtesting needed!


In my experience, analyzing my losses has been the only way I've improved.  The losses I discuss has been more than 2.  BOL to you though
 
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I choose to believe that this one game by the Angels is significant.  I know it's only one game, but The Angels were winning 8-0 after a few innings.  Was the play really that far off?  I choose not to believe that TB's recent perfect game pitched against them is a coincidence.  I'm also writing about this because I'll benefit and perhaps be able to recall what I've learned more than if I didn't write about it.  BOL STEW
 
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Posted: #16
I think cleveland wins easy tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #17
Cleveland is a road team that falls under fading the Shiny Lure Mariners.  BTW, Cleveland against Seattle, Monday, almost fits the parameters of the Fulcrum.  BOL
 
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Posted: #18

SD And Tampa your best picks? need help man!

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by chasedown:

SD And Tampa your best picks? need help man!


I like Tampa the most because it fits under what I believe to be the most important statistics to look for in recent games of a baseball team.   I also like the fact that KC is coming off of an emotional series win against the White Sox. 

If you want, check with weeble on the umps for this game.  Ask him if the strike zone favors the pitchers.  It looks like Hellickson is very impressive when he limits his free passes.  Obviously, all pitchers perform better when they can limit walks; however, it seems especially true for Jeremy H.  BOL 
 
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Posted: #22
I must say I don't get it. How can you consider any team a fav if they're both at - money?? If I'm not wrong, in one of your recaps in the last few days, you were missing a game under the favs part since the line was -105/-101 as you said yourself. And with the line moves Cleveland is a dog now.

Just my 0.02$.
 
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Posted: #23
I'm posting the plays.  Play them, fade them or cross them off of the board.  Cleveland started as a favorite and they're on the road. 
SD started at -105.
BOL
 
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Posted: #24
So the concept of leaving out home shiny lure plays, unless the're over -130, that's still under cosideration and hasn't been officially decided on as of now?
 
 
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Posted: #25
I'll allow you guys to tail and fade at your own risk. I believe the road team is stronger.  I'm taking TB for sure today.  I hope it can stay hot!
BOL
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