**Tizzy's Tizztastic MLB Thread (2 plays a day)**

Question

Perfection, Persistence, and Reliability is what im here to achieve.     Id like to start a season long project-thread, in hopes to contribute here to help everyone increase their bankrolls, period. Some of you may know me (SportsMavin Mlb Contest) MikeTizzy 57-41-2  &#x2B;2003$, ($100 per straight) some may not.  Thank you Mavin and others for helping me grow. A little bit about myself: For 2 years, ive studied the books through thick and thin. Im a student of analytics, odds, and defining true value. Have done countless of experiments on why we lose and why we win. Have formulated metrics with analytics to produce the highest probable scenarios of possible outcomes. Therefore baseball is perfect for me, and is what i do. I dont believe in streaks, I believe we can adjust and improve w/out acting out of emotions and impulse to cause awful streaks. (I have been there)  I hate losing more than anything, only thing im addicted to is winning.  Not out of arrogance, im here humble, so pls dont take my studies as anything but that. This is an opportunity to invest and make some real money, and hopefully i can help everyone be profitable with success. &#x9;I dont drink, smoke or eat meat, nor do i have any interest in degenerative behavior. (love calculating and winning at poker however)  I have absolutely no interest in this business for the sake of &#x27;action&#x27;. BUT i do hope the &#x27;action&#x27; i provide here just increases your bankrolls, so the happier the world is, the better we all treat each other. I appreciate any useful insight, and hope to continue improving to be the best. Thank you. &#x9;Now lets get this started and lets track everything accurately. (i hav  logged on Covers contests when im able to) Ill provide 2 picks a day, (other sports as well when possible) with full analysis when time allows me to. I put in hrs of work on a daily basis, and hope everyone appreciates it. Lets have the picks and work speak for me, I understand that is what it all comes down to and the bottom line.

MikeTizzy · Answer

Perfection, Persistence, and Reliability is what im here to achieve.     Id like to start a season long project-thread, in hopes to contribute here to help everyone increase their bankrolls, period. Some of you may know me (SportsMavin Mlb Contest) MikeTizzy 57-41-2  &#x2B;2003$, ($100 per straight) some may not.  Thank you Mavin and others for helping me grow. A little bit about myself: For 2 years, ive studied the books through thick and thin. Im a student of analytics, odds, and defining true value. Have done countless of experiments on why we lose and why we win. Have formulated metrics with analytics to produce the highest probable scenarios of possible outcomes. Therefore baseball is perfect for me, and is what i do. I dont believe in streaks, I believe we can adjust and improve w/out acting out of emotions and impulse to cause awful streaks. (I have been there)  I hate losing more than anything, only thing im addicted to is winning.  Not out of arrogance, im here humble, so pls dont take my studies as anything but that. This is an opportunity to invest and make some real money, and hopefully i can help everyone be profitable with success. &#x9;I dont drink, smoke or eat meat, nor do i have any interest in degenerative behavior. (love calculating and winning at poker however)  I have absolutely no interest in this business for the sake of &#x27;action&#x27;. BUT i do hope the &#x27;action&#x27; i provide here just increases your bankrolls, so the happier the world is, the better we all treat each other. I appreciate any useful insight, and hope to continue improving to be the best. Thank you. &#x9;Now lets get this started and lets track everything accurately. (i hav  logged on Covers contests when im able to) Ill provide 2 picks a day, (other sports as well when possible) with full analysis when time allows me to. I put in hrs of work on a daily basis, and hope everyone appreciates it. Lets have the picks and work speak for me, I understand that is what it all comes down to and the bottom line.

usayhn · Answer

Ok show your abilities dude.

MatrixMike · Answer

he is very sharp on his picks...usayhn....I follow him on covers and he bank&#x27;s !  He has my name ( mike ) but I&#x27;m better...lol joke Tizzy!! Best of luck dude you rock! Thanks for all ur work bro!!

Laroja · Answer

Gl Mike

MoneyMaker516 · Answer

what are your play Tizzy

MikeTizzy · Answer

DET Tigers  ML -187,  -1.5  &#x2B;1105*                                  4*This is the ideal scenario for Verlander to get back on track.He has been lights out, given all these circumstances. Lights out during the Day with 39.1 ip, great at Comerica where hes comfy with nice weather today. Handled these pirates to the tune of 2 CGs and .100 avg, .150 OBP, and a ridiculous SLUG of .156. only Russell Martin has done decent vs him, and hes holding a pretty cold bat at the moment. Pirates arent hitting Verlander type righties too well, very K susceptible as well.  On the flipside, Liriano has always struggled vs DET, and this is even a better lineup whos been hitting very well against lefties and righties. 1-8 lineup today is pretty potent, Liriano has been good, but he seems to put these Tigers on base too much, .450 OBP, with a lot of bats today thats hot and fairs well vs lefties, thats not wise to do so. If needed Verlander has a strong pen thats been pretty lights out as of late. .143 AVG, .236 OBP. .079 WHIP.

MikeTizzy · Answer

Cutch is very hot tho, Verlander has always put him away tho. So if he can mitigate any damage from the middle order with Cutch, he should be able to go through lineup well.

m1sterbojangles · Answer

so you&#x27;re playing both tiges ML and RL?

MikeTizzy · Answer

absolutely, and breaking down 1 more. Hope to finish it shortly. obviously, RL always deducts %es away from the just win scenario, but given lineups, starter, and pen dynamics, amongst many more. Its def a viable top grade play at a discount price. I dont usually recommend too many RLs unless i can find true value within. Usually its not worth the mathematics.

MikeTizzy · Answer

BAL Orioles  ML &#x2B;1224*Hammel coming off a much needed strong effort vs Yanks, he looks to continue that success and he gets deep here as he always have dominated this Nats lineup. Although traveling, they&#x27;ve had plenty of time since Jays day game to Wash. A much weakened lineup today w/out 3 important bats: Harper, Espinosa, and Werth. Its also well documented their struggles at the plate. Gio goes against a very hot lineup, 1-6 today even w/out their usual full potent lineup fairs very well here. Been raking lefties, and can put Gio and that pen in a bind. Gio has been great, but this the toughest and hottest lineup hes faced since gettin hit by ATL. As Hammel gets deep, will be able to mitigate damage from a mightily struggling bullpen lately. They do fair well tho, with their talent vs this Nats lineup. Jays and Rays were simply too hot at the time. They did do a good job with NYY last 2 games there however.

ezpz2006 · Answer

Gl Mike, followed you on the other thread.EZ.

m1sterbojangles · Answer

kk i&#x27;m parlaying det and bal.BOL Lets get that money

bookiekilla · Answer

I will be keeping an eye on this.  Good luck today.  Happy Memorial Day!

MikeTizzy · Answer

i dont recommend parlays,( unless noted otherwise) mathematically u should leave the independant variables as straights rather than try to squeak out and maximize value all in one go. Ill be doing work all season long, so keep that in mind while straights will always continue to pay out well. If u really want to parlay some, the ratio i would do is 1/4 or 1/3 of both straights, or 1/5 as an 'Action Reverse'

DarkHorsie · Answer

Everytime I bet Oriole$ I feel like a pretender

DarkHorsie · Answer

I knew TIZZY would be special thank$ in advance

MikeTizzy · Answer

Got another one fellasSTL Cardinals ML -1153.5*Rain delay to start, so there&#x27;s time to meet gametime here.Ice cold Royals bats, does not bode well vs a great road team in the Cards and the stuff of top tier Wainwright. Cards potent lineup (&#x2B;DH) fairs much better than the other way around. Wainwright has been on his stuff, and has always dominated the royals as well. Royals pen struggling as well, and Wainwright gets deep to off-set their pens odds to secure Win. Rainy and a bit Windy today, so we weary of this factor pls. Interstate rival here, where Cards always had the better team and royals number as well.

MatrixMike · Answer

Tizzy you rock dude have 500 on Baltimore pick looking great hope you never go away bro!!

MatrixMike · Answer

Dang, missed pick,!!!!!

Frank the Bank · Answer

Tough loss on Det RL however still a net profit in the game and great pick on Os at plus $$$

Quik · Answer

The Oriole$ cashed in

MikeTizzy · Answer

im sry fellas, i calculated everything in DET game. Benoit was actually the right decision that Leyland went with to setup in 8th, that would of been my move as well. He has been pretty premier actually, but the resiliency of the pirates erased a 6-3 lead with 2 runs. Thats just rough, because Benoit's metrics had all the odds to give up maybe 1 run max there. But these are the scenarios where i always suggest and tell ppl, Always do RL on another straight as an independant variable at about 1/3 or 1/4 ratio for implied odds purposes. I wouldn't recommend parlaying run lines either. Always leave it as an independent variable at a ratio of the original ML, unless i note otherwise. Sometimes theres great value on RLs and -2.5, and team either rolls or loses outright, so u save money as well with no juice.

And yes, the birds was for sure the true fave to win this outright, according to my calculations. Therefore there's incredible line value just to have them win by 1. As u guys watched from 1st inning to last with Hammel going 8ip deep, with metric efficiency as well, which is whats required to mitigate and give bp rest.

Now lets hope the Cards hold lead and stay ahead for the Win, they do have the bats. Just sux how the weather condition and uncomfortability is affecting pitching this game, which also helps the Over. We prolly need some more offense from Cards to be safer, which should be ok., hopefully.

jgjtrapboss · Answer

Good stuff man

Sorry to ask you to go out of your way on games your not betting on

But how do you like :

Texas game 2 ml

Angels ml

Yankees ml

Braves over 9

I'm in need of a big day and I'm not chasing or anything just want to start the week off right , thanks

MikeTizzy · Answer

u might actually be chasing, and telling urself u're not. Ive been there, done it, and i guarantee u that method is a -EV (expected value) move. Ill put in the studies for the later games if u like and those games u ask of me to do. But i dont recommend 'gambling' with bad odds, if u dont have the defined true value and odds within the game. U could very well be on the 33% or lower end, and will regret it, hoping for a suckout just to win cus u wanted a big day.

You will always start the week off right, if u tune in here.

**Tizzy's Tizztastic MLB Thread (2 plays a day)**

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Tizzy's Tizztastic MLB Thread (2 plays a day)