TUESDAY BASEBALL (Rangers, Braves RL, Yankees RL, Cardinals RL, Mets/AZ UN)

BOL

 

GL

Thanx for the comments msohn, I always bet stronger when comparing/contrasting ideas.

2 games Im getting more confident about:

Tor-KC over 10....I don't know how this game doesn't sail over to be honest.

Milw ML...I can't deny Bush having 6 starts in a row allowing 2 ER's...Thats consistent enough for me to play against the Pirates.

GL

Waited on that drop as well.   Win or Lose, huge value on that line.

Haven't been posting in my own thread for weeks, but as an FYI, I like a lot of chalk today:

cards (top pick), yanks rl, tampa, reds, milwaukee, over rockies, texas, toronto.  Most of the dough on the first 6 plays.  Leaning on a Houston/Over parlay for the hell of it.

Great stuff -- I also just played that game (TORONTO/KC OVER) for a full unit.

Well, I now have on something like 4 additional plays (other than my posted picks, which I always play as indicated) based on strong sentiment from other Covers members. We shall see how this all turns out. In any event, this has been really enjoyable to exchange ideas like this.

BEST OF LUCK GUYS

I told you Milw is on my no-bet list because I can't predict them, so what do I do the nxt day...Only down 9 after 1 looking good Brew Crew. I Hope you didn't get stuck w/ these chumps.

 

Ummmm, well, another Covers member had a nice write up on the Brew Crew and I took them. Obviously looks stupid now. But I have to admit that I was leaning in that direction already b/c I was really impressed by how they they were swinging the bat in Atlanta. Ricky Weeks with 17 HR -- Are you kidding me???  Who knows it is now just a six-run Pirates lead and it is still early. We have seen stranger things this season. Win or lose, though, this was a bad bet.

Milwaukee was solid guys and not stupid at all.  Bush obviously isn't overpowering and he just wasn't hitting his spots tonight putting Milwaukee in a huge hole.    He had a similar game against Minnesota back in May.  Confident we are on the right side no matter how it turns out.  I guess in hindsight, a Milwaukee team total against Lincoln was the very best play.

Msohn,

Speaking of covers analysis, remember Raems (I think that is who it was) that gave you the Hughes analysis in your thread not being as good in Yankee Stadium being that he is a fly ball pitcher.   Spot on tonight.   That game is one of only a few surprises tonight so far.

BTW, I ended up taking that Houston/Over parlay.  It basically pays 5-1.  I thought I had the damn thing in the bag until the Cubs 5th.  My bad for not making two separate plays.

Good call on the Braves

Nice BJ's got to 10, gotta figure these 2 can get 1 more run in... And their we go...

Here2...I didn't bet against chicago today, but I have no problem losing a close game w/ a +200 doggie. I wish I was on Houston rather than Milw right now...

Great call on the Blue Jays, fellas, I definitely would not have taken that if not for your combined confidence.

Well, Milwaukee lost, but if I am ever going to be down 9-0 after the 1st inning, at least we got a game where we hope to have a major, major sighting. I may have crapped my pants, but at least it was over with early!

h2c I absolutely did remember what raems said about Hughes. You know me -- I am always in search of big dogs that can bark, but in this case, I goofed because when I actually looked at O'Sullivan's numbers in AAA, I thought for sure that he would get bombed. The only right thing that came out of my analysis was the hubris of taking the Yankees Run Line which limited the loss to +100.

God I love Covers . . . could have saved a bundle by listening to raems.

4-1 night for +$300. Thank you to all who posted their comments on this thread. It helps me tremendously, and I really enjoyed the back and forth dialogue.

=====

TEXAS (Hunter) @ DETROIT (Galarraga) 
PICK: RANGERS -125
I am back on the Rangers. Simple observation here is that Texas has found ways to win 4 of 5 since the Break, whereas the Tigers are reeling, finding ways to lose all 5, including getting swept by the Indians. Luckily, Hunter's performance this year is a good support for the pick, but I was very surprised to see that he has pitched only 9 innings away from Arlington. Tigers were smart to send Galarraga down to AAA to get some work (all in relief, I believe) over the Break. Since his "perfect game" the Tigers have won 5 of his 6 starts, but he has faded overall, with his ERA jumping nearly 2 points to 4.45.

SAN DIEGO (LeBlanc) @ ATLANTA (Jurrjens) 
PICK: RUN LINE BRAVES -1.5 +125
San Diego took all three at home vs. the Diamonbacks, but they face a much tougher opponent at Atlanta (Jurrjens, Hanson, Hudson). Jurrjens is coming off of three straight good starts since coming off the DL, and he is at home, where is numbers have been very good with a 1.82 ERA in 24 IP with a 0.217 BA. LeBlanc is a much different pitcher way from the pitcher friendly Petco Park. On the road, his ERA is over 5 with opponents batting 0.312. The Braves have one of the best home records in baseball, and despite coming off a tough series with the Brewers, I always feel that I have a chance to win when backing ATL.

LeBlanc pitched much better than I had expected, but was simply out-dueled by Jurrjens, who continues to perform after coming off the DL.

LA ANGELS (O'Sullivan) @ YANKEES (Hughes) 
PICK: RUN LINE YANKEES -1.5 ???
I will be taking the Yankees Run Line on this game, but will have to post the odds when they are available tomorrow. Hughes has had moments of inconsistency this year, but I like his 1.18 ERA and 29-91 BB-K ratio (k/9 of 8.1). Angels have called up O'Sullivan from Salt Lake (AAA) for this start, and he was 5-5 there with an ERA of nearly 5 and a WHIP of 1.5. Of the Yankees' 58 wins this  year, only 9 have been by a 1-run margin. I'd hate to lose the game on a run, but I would much rather lower the risk of losing outright and bank of the Yankees' record of winning and winning with a comfortable margin.

Sean O'Sullivan
https://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=osulli001sea

The Yankees had their chances early to knock O'Sullivan out of the game early in 1st but scored only 2 runs and he cruised the rest of the way. Talk about hubris -- I posted the pick without even seeing the line until later this morning. The only positive from this was my run line pick saving me from a huge loss to a more digestible -130.

I should have listened to Raems. I picked Hughes against Seattle before the Break and while he was supportive of the pick, he had some great insight on Hughes and his tendency to throw a lot of fly balls at home. I won't forget this a second time.

PHILADELPHIA (Moyer) @ ST. LOUIS (Carpenter) 
PICK: RUN LINE CARDINALS -1.5 +105
I have nothing but a ton of respect for Moyer -- we can all only hope to be performing when we are 47. But, as we all know, Moyer depends heavily on pitch location to keep his team in the game. His WHIP this year is a very good 1.05, and he walks very few batters, but his ERA shows something different: when hitters make contact, they can pound the ball, as evidenced by his 20 HR this year. Despite that lineup, the Cardinals have really struggled to score runs this year, but I think that this matchup favors the bats tomorrow. As for Carpenter, his recent trends seem eerily similar to Ubaldo Jimenez . . . very good numbers through June and then July struggles, yet the most recent start being very good. Hopefully, the pattern ends there and Carpenter will hold down the Phillies tomorrow.

Moyer left the game after 1 inning due to an elbow injury, so we did not get to see how the Cardinals would hit him tonight. Kudos to h2c for calling a night from Randy Winn.

NEW YORK METS (Dickey) @ ARIZONA (Enright) 
PICK: UNDER 9.5
A repeat of the Dickey's last two games would do nicely. Dickey, as he has all season, pitched very well, only to be thwarted by the lack of Mets run support. Since the Break, the Mets have only scored 9 runs in five games. Enright is a bit of an unknown. I like his ability to get the K (13 in 15 innings) so far in the big show. Before getting called up, he pitched AA and he had great numbers down there. 93 IP, 2.88 ERA, only 15 walks but 83 Ks.

Barry Enright (AA)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/?pl_id=80575

Another night and another tough loss for Dickey who pitched out of some tough spots and held the Dbacks to only 3 runs. The real story is Barry Enright -- Eric Byrnes on the MLB channel said Enright was a better version of Aaron Cook, which is high praise. I'll definitely stick that in the mental files. Got to wonder what is going on right with the Mets bats.

TOTAL 89-83-3 (+$950)
"UNDERDOG SPECIALS" 16-18 (+1035)

6/11/2010  1-3-2 (-$215)  Underdog 0-2 (-$200)
6/12/2010  2-2 (-$50)
6/13/2010  5-1 (+$320)
6/14/2010  1-1 (-$15)
6/15/2010  2-1 (+$100)
6/16/2010  2-1 (+$100)  Underdog 0-1 (-$100)
6/17/2010  3-0 (+$300)
6/18/2010  2-2 (+$75)  Underdog 2-0 (+$330)
6/19/2010  1-2 (-$110)  Underdog 0-1 (-$100)
6/20/2010  1-4 (-$345)
6/21/2010  0-1 (-$170)
6/22/2010  1-4 (-$400)
6/23/2010  2-3 (-$160)
6/24/2010  1-4 (-$160)
6/25/2010  2-2 (+$250)  Underdog 2-1 (+$370)
6/26/2010  4-2 (+$160)  Underdog 0-1 (-$100)
6/27/2010  4-4 (-$175)
6/28/2010  3-1 (+$300)  Underdog 0-1 (-$100)
6/29/2010  3-2 (+$130)  Underdog 1-1 (+$40)
6/30/2010  1-3 (-$220)  Underdog 1-1 (+$40)

7/01/2010  2-3 (-$30)  Underdog 1-1 (+$120)
7/02/2010  3-5 (-$175)  Underdog 3-0 (+$450)
7/03/2010  2-3 (-$65)  Underdog 2-3 (+$50)
7/04/2010  3-1 (+$130)
7/05/2010  3-0 (+$300)
7/06/2010  5-2 (+$375)  Underdog 1-1 (+$40)
7/07/2010  4-1 (+$480)  Underdog 0-1 (-$100)
7/08/2010  1-4 (-$305)  Underdog 0-1 (-$100)
7/09/2010  3-1 (+$400)  Underdog 2-1 (+$300)
7/10/2010  3-3 (+$15)
7/11/2010  3-0 (+$305)
---------
7/13/2010  2-0 (+$215)
----------
7/15/2010  2-2 (+$5)  Underdog 0-1 (-$100)
7/16/2010  1-4 (-$310)
7/17/2010  3-3 (-$190)
7/18/2010  0-4 (-$470)
7/19/2010  4-2-1 (+$255)  Underdog 1-0 (+$190)
7/20/2010  4-1 (+$300)

Good job.   You not only had a good day, but you seem to be having fun doing it.

Spot on with the AZ/Mets under.   That game surprised the shit out of me.  Didn't see any of the game, but Enright seems like the real deal, and Dickey is continuing to pitch well.

Re; yanks - Hindsight of course is always 20-20, but we expected (didn't happen) Sullivan would get hit, and we knew Hughes doesn't pitch as well at home (and if the weak hitting Angels are hitting bombs, it has to be the case).  Seems over was the right play.

Tomorrow's board is extra tough.   I usually see 8-10 that I need to narrow down.  Only decent play to me right now is St. Louis.  Blanton has over a 7 ERA on the road.  He does normally pitch well against St. Louis, but those bats are on fire.

One more thing and I will stop monopolizing your thread.  I know the Cubs are a permanent no play for you right now, but at least do your analysis on them each game.  Bats have been heating up since Ramirez came back from disabled list.   There may be a Cubs play (depending who is pitching) or even an over.  The only reason I was on the other side today is they notoriously have trouble against starters they have seen for the first time. 

h2c you are always welcome to post -- love your insights and contribution!

I agree with you that tomorrow looks tough . . . a lot of 50/50 situations which I don't like too much. My side picks will have some RL to reduce the risk. But I do have 2 underdog picks that I will be posting. See you in the next thread.

I agree with you on the Cardinals tomorrow and point well taken on the Cubs.

Ice Cube had it right "Today was a Good Day", I had a feeling we wouldn't lose today!!! Finally ran through the jungle.

msohn and here2...I absolutely love getting insight from others who do some research, if I'm making a play I obviously have a well researched opinion on it. I would actually rather more contrarian views on certain plays, but it's always nice to know others see the same advantage that I see....For instance I'm hitting unders at a rate I wouldn't believe if I didn't bet them (72% 31-12-1) since June 1st but today in Arizona I had no problem w/ sum1 mentioning Arizona is an Over machine, I agree just not today, but if I didn't know their #'s were so high I would have been pissed before making that wager. All useful insight no matter what is helpful IMO..

I'm really glad the play was -1.5 on the NYY so I just lost a little juice on them, But no way would I have bet them w/ an unkown @ -260. Hughes was 75% in that position and you can't win them all. Very nice we didn't have to deal w/ Moyer who made the Cards too easy and yeah the Muts bats are good to bet against until something changes....

Here2 you should notice that eventhough the Cubs are on my absolute fade list like the Brewers are on my no bet list I still get trapped into betting on them, just it would be a fucking miracle if I was willing to lay -220 juice on that shit. I may bet chicago somedays but only around 130 or lower.