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VW April 21 10-1 (+36.4u)

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Posted: #1
Season Record / April 20 Results
1 unit = 2% of bank roll
Starting bankroll: $25,000
Current bankroll: $43,200
Current unit measurement: $850
10-1-0 [91%] +36.40 units (+18,200)
Monster: 1-0 (+10 units)
Large: 1-0 (+6 units)
Regular: 3-0 (+3.25 units)
Run-line: 0-1 (-1 units)
Totals: 2-0 (+2 units)
Parlays: 2-0 (+15.1 units)

Killer day to start off the baseball betting season for myself, was one of those days you wish you threw a unit down on a 13 leg parlay, as I went 12-1 on money line leans according to my king of covers picks.

The hardest part of keeping profits at a peak level is trying to beat the laws of averages and recognizing when the tides start to shift either in your favor of a hot streak or when you start to go cold and adjust your betting habits accordingly, maximize profits on hot streaks and minimize loses on cold streaks; much easier said then done and hindsight is always 20-20.

No plays yet for April 21, will update this thread as I develop leans and potential plays to lock in. 

BOL to everyone







 
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Posted: #2
Right on!
 
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Posted: #3
Very early leans, don't lock them in by any means but take maybe a few games to take a look at

Nationals -165 
Rays +140
Giants -160

 
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Posted: #4
I will also be looking deeper into Mariners if Cleveland continues to be a heavy public favorite. 
 
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Posted: #5

Thanks for the heads up and exposing the correct approach to the math involved in this gig and a money maintenance system.

 
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Posted: #6
Like that SF play. Shelby Miller has been garbage.
 
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Posted: #7
Narrowed down tomorrows games to

Mariners
Twins
Nationals
Giants
Rays
Athletics

Honorable mentions: Orioles, White Sox

No plays yet, but in my opinion these are the teams to look at.
 
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Posted: #8
Add to honorable mentions for potential plays:
Royals, Cubs, Rangers
 
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Posted: #9
Interesting picks Virgo. How do you come up with the Rays? There going against Price and @ Fenway. Don't see the Rays coming away with the win.
 
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Posted: #10
Shelby is going to have a hard year following Greinke in the rotation.  If the DBacks want to get him back to success, they are going to need Ray in between the two.  BOL, I'm with you on the Giants.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Mikeypicks:

Interesting picks Virgo. How do you come up with the Rays? There going against Price and @ Fenway. Don't see the Rays coming away with the win.

Damn, I wrote a mini novel explaining my views on the game but the page crashed and I don't feel like typing all that out again.. 

I look at games from a contrarian perspective most of the time and try not to let any bias come into play.. There are a lot of heavy chalk favorites today and out of most of them I do not trust the Red Sox to be -150 favorites, the public is jumping on Price but I would encourage you to look into his past performances against the Rays and Odorizzi's against the RedSox. Ray's have trouble scoring lately and people may assume that the RedSox's batting woes are over after last games offensive showing.. 

I see value in the Rays at +140 against a RedSox team that has shown little to deserve such lines.. 

As always, do your own research and come to your own conclusion but just a few things to consider. 
 
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Posted: #12
the best system is this  forget logic  and deep analysis  use intuition and gut feeling    ok then in the long run
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by relevantnow22:

the best system is this  forget logic  and deep analysis  use intuition and gut feeling    ok then in the long run

In my experience relying on any one type of "system" or way of betting is a losing method in the long run.. mix everything and only play games that have research behind them and gut feeling/intuition.. record all your plays, but only play the ones that feel right. 

In the end it takes a lot of discipline and self-control to go through the highs and lows and come out ahead.. I always try to keep my eyes on the season goals and not get caught up in the daily or weekly grind, I strive to finish the season with a 60% hit rate or higher.
 
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Posted: #14
We'll start the day off with a crazy 100:1 odds parlay for fun (don't tail this unless your a crazy mofo and don't care about losing the money)

Dodgers -1.5
Nationals -1.5
Athletics -1.5
Twins -1.5
Rays +1.5
Mariners mL

risk 0.1u to win 10u
$85 pays $8500

 
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Posted: #15
Great calls... Keep up the good work and stay hot...
 
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Posted: #16
Adding 2 totals as first regular plays of the day

MIN@MIL over 8.5 -110  risk 1.1u to win 1u
OAK@NYY under 8.5 -135 risk 1.35u to win 1u


 
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Posted: #17
Today's day card is locked and loaded tail or fade your choice

Mariners -110 risk 1.1u to win 1u
Nationals -1.5 +100 risk 1u to win 1u
Rays +140 risk 1u to win 1.4u
Twins -105 risk 1.05u to win 1u

BOL 
 
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Posted: #18
Upgrading Twins to a large play and adding one more large play

Twins +100 risk 5u to win 5u
Athletics +120 risk 5u to win 6u

Gonna have a coffee and get my mind off sports for a bit. 

GL this morning/afternoon !
 
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Posted: #19

I'm tailing!!!   
 
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Posted: #20
Virgo, what's your thoughts on the OVER in Twins/Brew game??


 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Bengalfan9:

Virgo, what's your thoughts on the OVER in Twins/Brew game??



I took the over in that game, posted above.. reason being these two teams seem to score a lot of runs when they play each other, Jungmann has been a mess and giving up a lot of runs, it looks like at the moment there isn't really any weather issues (slight drizzle, hoping that goes away) other then a slight wind blowing in towards home plate but at only 3mph shouldn't affect much.. the trends support the over and it's just a gut feeling, I have twins winning this game but if they do that I predict a pretty high scoring game with a lot of back-and-forth runs as Brewers have been good at scoring runs early in the game. 

I'm not as good at predicting totals, I try to stay away from them but I do like this one for what it's worth, enough to play it. 
 
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Posted: #22
GL Virgo
I always look forward to your picks and reasons, keep it up man 
 
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Posted: #23
epic day for you yesterday. tailing you today bro BOL 
 
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Posted: #24
Nice!
 
 
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