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#1
Well after another winning night last night we did drop both our afternoon games, so we do enter into night down. If you missed the earlier picks then hopefully you'll go 3-0 tonight.
Tonight is a goofy card as I have a couple teams that have superb systems backing them but either the match-ups don't fit or there is another 2-3 systems that are backing the opposing team. I won't go into those games unless asked. Here are tonight's 3 plays.
2* NY Mets +107
Well, I lost last night but I am not kidding, every time the Nationals are favoreed I am going fade them. Currently I am still up. Last night, the Mets' Perez extended his winless road streak to 5 and Pelfrey - the Mets hurler tonight - has an ERA in double-digits the last 3 games but did win 1 of them and he is 5-4 (team record) on the road. Meanwhile the Nats hurler is 0-3 at home (team record 2-3 in his starts). Head-to-head Pelfrey's TR is 5-4 vs. Stammens 0-2. Yes, the Mets have been playing baseball almost as bad as the Nats this year but the Mets are still 8-3 head-to-head TY. I have to take the Mets and the chalk.
1* STL Cardinals -112
Tough game to handicap here but as we break it down we see Oswalt is 1-7 against division opponents this season. His team record is 14-14 vs STL compared to Carpenter's 9-4 record. In addition, I have 3 systems hitting over 70% TY that either backs the Cards in this situation or fades the Astros. I have to be confident and continue to go with the analysis that has put me up 75 units on the year.
2* LA Dodgers -1' +110
It is not too often that when a team is -210 on the ML you are able to get chalk on run-line. Yet, in this case I can. Arroyo has pitched well on the road, however, his team record is 1-6 vs. the Dodgers. LA's hurler is sporting a 2-1 record vs the Reds. Throw in the fact that Cincinnati is winless in LA in 3 years (0-8)!! I can see how a handicapper can back the Reds on the moneyline but with the history of these two teams and the match-up of talent and the fact that out of the last 10 games the Dodgers have played and the last 10 the Reds have played only 1 of those 20 have been decided by 1 run, I am going the other route and laying the 1' runs and get the +110 at an underdog price.
Well, sorry for the early day let down. However, looking to sweep the board tonight for another winning day. GOOD LUCK to all!!
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