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Why the huge line move on the Giants / Braves game?

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Posted: #126
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

Your wrong, money doesn't move lines as much as you think.  It's who's betting it that moves the line more than anything. 
Both are good points, but could you explain you theory a little more? On a side note, I have been doing well with the 1st pitch strike bets? Both pitchers threw a first pitch strike today in the braves/giants gamegood luck
 
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Posted: #127

Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

Your wrong, money doesn't move lines as much as you think.  It's who's betting it that moves the line more than anything. 

Actually the sharps are the ones putting big money on the game so yes money does move the line but it's more important who's betting is what I should say.

 
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Posted: #128

Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

Your wrong, money doesn't move lines as much as you think.  It's who's betting it that moves the line more than anything. 

how can someone know who is betting on a game??

 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

Actually the sharps are the ones putting big money on the game so yes money does move the line but it's more important who's betting is what I should say.

I was waiting for that.

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Posted: #130
And FYI, the line (on average) was 150 around 9 30 AM and was 126 by first pitch... So there was roughly a 24 cent move which is  more than normal but not anything to suggest anything other than Braves money coming in
 
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Posted: #131

Quote Originally Posted by URISS2302:

And FYI, the line (on average) was 150 around 9 30 AM and was 126 by first pitch... So there was roughly a 24 cent move which is  more than normal but not anything to suggest anything other than Braves money coming in

Pinny line opened at -167 and closed at -111.

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Posted: #132

Bottom line is the move meant shit. It moved to a PK and that's what we have.

 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by JFISH:

how can someone know who is betting on a game??

Every person that wagers is profiled.  Whatever book you use has a profile on what type of gambler you are and if you win and how many cashouts you have made.  If you are very good than you get put on a list of people they want to know what you are betting.  Get enough good gamblers on the same team.

Let me ask you guys, do you think the people who take calls and work for a book do it for 10$ an hour?  Or do you think they do it because they themselves like to gamble and want to know where the sharp money is going.  Those same people are than putting wagers down at other books like Pinny.  Pinny than has those people profiled that win all the time and now they know where the sharp play is as an example.

 
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Posted: #134
Ive only been a member here for a few months and i have learned one thing from this board and have seen it many times now.Im not saying all but from what IVE seen 80 percent of the posters here dont even bet on these games and maybe 15  percent bet 10-25 dollars a game. i can probably say the other 5 percent bet more than 25.
 
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Pinny line opened at -167 and closed at -111.



I know but I'm comparing the Vegas movement with offshore movement, and nothing stuck out as obvious... Both vegas and the offshore books moved the lines around the same time through out the day... Therefore I can only assume that there is big money coming in on Atlanta... Just my 2 cents, or at least thats how I interpret it
 
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Posted: #136

It's basically the same 2% winning all the time and the other 98% losing.  Those people that are taking your calls at your online book are the best gamblers in the world and they simply follow their sharp clients. 

 
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Posted: #137

Quote Originally Posted by URISS2302:



I know but I'm comparing the Vegas movement with offshore movement, and nothing stuck out as obvious... Both vegas and the offshore books moved the lines around the same time through out the day... Therefore I can only assume that there is big money coming in on Atlanta... Just my 2 cents, or at least thats how I interpret it

And I agree with you....

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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

Every person that wagers is profiled.  Whatever book you use has a profile on what type of gambler you are and if you win and how many cashouts you have made.  If you are very good than you get put on a list of people they want to know what you are betting.  Get enough good gamblers on the same team.

Let me ask you guys, do you think the people who take calls and work for a book do it for 10$ an hour?  Or do you think they do it because they themselves like to gamble and want to know where the sharp money is going.  Those same people are than putting wagers down at other books like Pinny.  Pinny than has those people profiled that win all the time and now they know where the sharp play is as an example.

 

 im pretty sure vegas sets the odds and the offshores follow... and dont you think the heavy hitters are profiled, so they have other people place their wagers?? so money is the pretty much the only thing that moves the lines... imo

 
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Posted: #139

Quote Originally Posted by URISS2302:



I know but I'm comparing the Vegas movement with offshore movement, and nothing stuck out as obvious... Both vegas and the offshore books moved the lines around the same time through out the day... Therefore I can only assume that there is big money coming in on Atlanta... Just my 2 cents, or at least thats how I interpret it

Wrong wrong wrong.  Most people that have a line follow Pinny for obvious reasons.  I don't care if it's Vegas, your local or online book.  When Pinny moves a line you have about 60 seconds tops to beat your online book before they simply follow and it doesn't matter how much money your book has on team A or team B.

 
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Posted: #140
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

And I agree with you....



... With that said SF is a bargain, regardless who wins, the right play in my opinion is SF in this specific situation ... the line never leveled off it just kept dropping all the way to first pitch
 
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Posted: #141
off shore doesnt follow vegas. off shore gets millions and millions more action than vegas does.
 
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Posted: #142
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

Wrong wrong wrong.  Most people that have a line follow Pinny for obvious reasons.  I don't care if it's Vegas, your local or online book.  When Pinny moves a line you have about 60 seconds tops to beat your online book before they simply follow and it doesn't matter how much money your book has on team A or team B.

I shouldn't say this, for football it's much different.  It comes from Vegas first.  They hand out lines to a certain few sharps and if they hit the same line the Vegas books move it before it gets to the public line.
 
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Posted: #143

Quote Originally Posted by jabaro:

off shore doesnt follow vegas. off shore gets millions and millions more action than vegas does.

It's not even close.

 
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Posted: #144

I wish I can follow all the bets that win and stop overanalyzing from all different angles.

 
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Posted: #145

Farnsworth coming in.

Game will be over in a couple of minutes.

 

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Posted: #146
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

Wrong wrong wrong.  Most people that have a line follow Pinny for obvious reasons.  I don't care if it's Vegas, your local or online book.  When Pinny moves a line you have about 60 seconds tops to beat your online book before they simply follow and it doesn't matter how much money your book has on team A or team B.



Are you kidding me, I know that... BUT LIKE I SAID ... I compared this to the Vegas movement and they were all moving at the same time... THIS IS BECAUSE THERE IS HEAVY ATLANTA MONEY.. Or "steam" like that jabawr whatever guy said...  I am very aware of Pinny, I don't need the lecture, but this specific situation does not imply anything other than LARGE, ShARP, HEAVY (whatever word  you prefer) money on Atlanta throughout the day whatever word you want to use ... So you are WRONG WRONG WRONG... Another example of how your wrong is that the line never leveled off, it kept dropping consistently offshore and vegas....Obviously the "Sharps" saw lots of value on Atlanat
 
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Posted: #147

why do you think off shores get more action than vegas?Convience... do you really think the heavy hitters and people who call themselved professional gamblers would wager online rather than face to face. IN GENERAL square bettors choose online and the pros stay near vegas... im not saying there are not people that make a living off online books, but majority are square bettors.

 
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Posted: #148
Quote Originally Posted by JFISH:

why do you think off shores get more action than vegas?Convience... do you really think the heavy hitters and people who call themselved professional gamblers would wager online rather than face to face. IN GENERAL square bettors choose online and the pros stay near vegas... im not saying there are not people that make a living off online books, but majority are square bettors.

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Posted: #149
when vegas moves a line, other books follow... american sports that is...
 
 
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Posted: #150
Quote Originally Posted by jabaro:

off shore doesnt follow vegas. off shore gets millions and millions more action than vegas does.


Explain to me where I said offshore follows Vegas?  I'll wait... What I said was that the movement was consistent in Vegas and offshore...WHICH ONLY MEANS YOUR REASONING is 100% wrong
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