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#1
CUP YTD
62-45 +21.80 units (Match-Ups)
32-30 +21.95 units (Props/FP)
08-15 +08.63 units (Race Winners)
Total: +52.38 units
One of my favorite races of the year (was the favorite before they messed with the track) so looking forward to the race but not in love with the books, a lot of crazy lines in what could possibly be a crapshoot race....
all plays @5dimes
MATCH-UPS
1.50 units Brad Keselowski (-115) over Greg Biffle
Riding this train all the way to the station, the deuce has been very good to me lately. Looking good again for tonight, starting 8th had a Top 5 fast lap in both practice sessions, fastest 10 lap avg in first practice and 2nd in combined overall practice speed for both sessions.
Biffle has good history here but rolling with Kez and the momentum here.
1.50 units Jeff Gordon (-115) over Kurt Busch
Another team that has it going, worst finish for Gordon the last two months has been 13th but has gone 4 straight here without a Top 10, but thinking hes Top 5 material tonight which may be enough to beat the 22.
1.50 units Paul Menard (+140) over Jeff Burton
I was puzzled to see this line. The 31 has improved the last few weeks but can't see him laying this kind of wood to (so far all year) a better team. Menard ran 5th here in the spring.
1.50 units Dale Jr. (+100) over Clint Bowyer
If you look at stats through the last 5+ years this is Jr's best track (9.2 avg), and he is 3rd only behind Kyle and Carl at Bristol. Really needs a Top 10 run and believe he will get it if he stays clean.
Bowyer is pretty much in the same boat as Jr. 11th in points looking to get in but last 5 here he has a 22.6 avg. He should be better than that but I like Jr to get him by a few spots.
PROPS/FP
2.00 units Brad Keselowski (+280) to win group (@sportsbook)
over Reutimann/Logano/Kahne/Menard
2nd or 3rd week in a row my biggest play has been a prop so pushing my luck but the only one I'm worried about is Menard
1.00 unit Matt Kenseth (+135) Top5
Whenever Kenseth qualifies and practices this good, he's someone to keep an eye on
0.75 unit Mark Martin (+265) Top5
The 5 has had speed in practice pretty much all year but last week they finally carried it over to an entire race, fast again tonight was 1st in combined overall speed
0.75 unit Ryan Newman (+225) Top5
Nice history 7 Top 10's last 10 starts and fast in both practices (10 lap avg) and starts on point
RACE WINNER
Not going with the favs
0.40 unit Ryan Newman (+1500)
0.35 unit Mark Martin (+1800)
0.30 unit Brad Keselowski (+2000)
0.25 unit Dale Jr. (+2500)
0.20 unit Jamie McMurray (+3000)
Good luck!
62-45 +21.80 units (Match-Ups)
32-30 +21.95 units (Props/FP)
08-15 +08.63 units (Race Winners)
Total: +52.38 units
One of my favorite races of the year (was the favorite before they messed with the track) so looking forward to the race but not in love with the books, a lot of crazy lines in what could possibly be a crapshoot race....
all plays @5dimes
MATCH-UPS
1.50 units Brad Keselowski (-115) over Greg Biffle
Riding this train all the way to the station, the deuce has been very good to me lately. Looking good again for tonight, starting 8th had a Top 5 fast lap in both practice sessions, fastest 10 lap avg in first practice and 2nd in combined overall practice speed for both sessions.
Biffle has good history here but rolling with Kez and the momentum here.
1.50 units Jeff Gordon (-115) over Kurt Busch
Another team that has it going, worst finish for Gordon the last two months has been 13th but has gone 4 straight here without a Top 10, but thinking hes Top 5 material tonight which may be enough to beat the 22.
1.50 units Paul Menard (+140) over Jeff Burton
I was puzzled to see this line. The 31 has improved the last few weeks but can't see him laying this kind of wood to (so far all year) a better team. Menard ran 5th here in the spring.
1.50 units Dale Jr. (+100) over Clint Bowyer
If you look at stats through the last 5+ years this is Jr's best track (9.2 avg), and he is 3rd only behind Kyle and Carl at Bristol. Really needs a Top 10 run and believe he will get it if he stays clean.
Bowyer is pretty much in the same boat as Jr. 11th in points looking to get in but last 5 here he has a 22.6 avg. He should be better than that but I like Jr to get him by a few spots.
PROPS/FP
2.00 units Brad Keselowski (+280) to win group (@sportsbook)
over Reutimann/Logano/Kahne/Menard
2nd or 3rd week in a row my biggest play has been a prop so pushing my luck but the only one I'm worried about is Menard
1.00 unit Matt Kenseth (+135) Top5
Whenever Kenseth qualifies and practices this good, he's someone to keep an eye on
0.75 unit Mark Martin (+265) Top5
The 5 has had speed in practice pretty much all year but last week they finally carried it over to an entire race, fast again tonight was 1st in combined overall speed
0.75 unit Ryan Newman (+225) Top5
Nice history 7 Top 10's last 10 starts and fast in both practices (10 lap avg) and starts on point
RACE WINNER
Not going with the favs
0.40 unit Ryan Newman (+1500)
0.35 unit Mark Martin (+1800)
0.30 unit Brad Keselowski (+2000)
0.25 unit Dale Jr. (+2500)
0.20 unit Jamie McMurray (+3000)
Good luck!
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