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Futures Bet Dilemma. Please help!!!!

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
I get $2500 if Carl Edwards to win the Championship. I understand the newness of Phoenix makes the race a bit of a wildcard. I heard that Tony Stewart was fastest in testing which makes me nervous about my bet. At Homestead I am confident in Carl but not if he trails by more than 5 points. I am entertaining the thought of hedging with up to $500 on Tony.

My book is offering: 

Tony to beat Carl at Phoenix -150
Tony to win the Championship -110

Anybody have any advice on what they would do? Would you lay the juice on Tony at Phoenix and hope to win both bets? Or just wimp out and bet on Tony to win the championship?

I still feel like Carl is going to win it all, but so many things could go wrong in racing that I feel like I would really kick myself if I ended up with nothing because of something flukey. 
 
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Posted: #2
Depends on how important 2500 is to you. I mean there is breaking point on how much would hurt if you lost. If its scared money then hedge.  For what its worth I think Nascar has a lot to do with momentum therefore I like Tony
 
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Posted: #3
The most Ive ever won on a sporting event is $1000 so $2500 is a pretty big amount. Would you hedge this race at -150 with the possibility to win both bets? Or would you hedge the championship at -110? Thanks for any insight!
 
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Posted: #4
you can loose the hedge and still have the same exact problem next week. I'd stand pat this week and wait till next week to hedge. gl
 
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Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by Goggles-Pisano:

you can loose the hedge and still have the same exact problem next week. I'd stand pat this week and wait till next week to hedge. gl

 

My advice too as this week so up in air

 
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Posted: #6
bet smoke 2 win the championship, bet smoke 2 beat carl this week and next week!!!   carl was supposed 2 beat smoke at texas and he didn't  carl's luck runs out this week at phoenix as hamlin's did last year..    carl will b lucky 2 get out of phoenix with a top 15!!   smoke rolls 2 his 3rd c.ship at homestead and i will b there         kasey kahne for  12 champion!!!
 
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Posted: #7
i'd hedge Tony to win the championship before the phoenix race
nice wager..lock in a profit...GL
 
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Posted: #8

Neither driver will be out of it next week. I would hold tight and look at my options then. There could be some really good value plays then.Edwards will be very tough at Homestead.

I'm rooting for Smoke though because I can't stand ol Horsehead.

 
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Posted: #9
I think if you are gonna hedge now is the time. I think Tony beats Carl this weekend but thats too juicy. play Tony to win championship.  What kind of odds do you have on Carl? What was your risk amount and win amount?  

The problem with waiting is if Tony dominates and Carl finishes 12th your odds on Tony get worse.
 
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Posted: #10
NoWorries21- I got him early at 7-1 and later at 3-1. I have about $400 bet to win $2100.

I like your logic and just made 2 hedge bets....

$120 to win $80 Smoke at -150 to beat Carl at Phoenix

$260 to win $240 Smoke to win cup at -110

I feel like such a vag. I guess if Smoke beats him this weekend by only a little bit it wont hurt too much but I fear a 15 pts swing which is my reason for wimping out. Thanks for all the advice guys, I may need more next week! BOL to all
 
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Posted: #11
I dont like the phoenix hedge. I would have just hedged 440 to win 400 on stwart to win championship. Then if Stewart wins u break even. If carl wins you make almost 1700
 
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Posted: #12
NW. i agree about the hedge this week. especially considering the excessive Juice.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
If Tony is going to win the cup he is going to have to beat Carl this week. If that happens history tells me that Carl shouldnt be far behind (worst finish in Chase is 11th). Therefore I felt like the worstcase scenario for me next week would be Tony -180 or so to win it all. I could then roll my $200 from Phoenix on him to win Cup and turn into $300-350 when if I just bet the -110 now I would have $230. Not to mention I could possibly win the matchup this week and win with Carl (in case I didnt feel like hedging next week). Regardless I hope I lose both bets!
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by stats1:

bet smoke 2 win the championship, bet smoke 2 beat carl this week and next week!!!   carl was supposed 2 beat smoke at texas and he didn't  carl's luck runs out this week at phoenix as hamlin's did last year..    carl will b lucky 2 get out of phoenix with a top 15!!   smoke rolls 2 his 3rd c.ship at homestead and i will b there         kasey kahne for  12 champion!!!
            cmon MAN!!!!   did u not read this!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by TREE88:

Neither driver will be out of it next week. I would hold tight and look at my options then. There could be some really good value plays then.Edwards will be very tough at Homestead.

I'm rooting for Smoke though because I can't stand ol Horsehead.

 

 

Now you can hedge with Smoke at +115 to win it.  Bet your $400 to win $460 sit back and relax and root for Carl... if Smoke wins you'll make $60 If Carl wins you'll make $1700. Its a win win.

 

 
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Posted: #16
Bet Stewart to win at Homestead.  Pretty much if Smoke doesn't win on Sunday he loses the Chase.  If smoke wins you hit +$500 and lose your Edwards bet.  If smoke loses you lose the Stewart play and win your big Edwards play.
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by chadman610:

Bet Stewart to win at Homestead.  Pretty much if Smoke doesn't win on Sunday he loses the Chase.  If smoke wins you hit +$500 and lose your Edwards bet.  If smoke loses you lose the Stewart play and win your big Edwards play.



not sure how you came up with that
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by chadman610:

Bet Stewart to win at Homestead.  Pretty much if Smoke doesn't win on Sunday he loses the Chase.  If smoke wins you hit +$500 and lose your Edwards bet.  If smoke loses you lose the Stewart play and win your big Edwards play.
   what if it comes down to fuel mileage??  tony finishes 7th carl 17th    tony will b      ding dong!!!!   
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by stats1:

   what if it comes down to fuel mileage??  tony finishes 7th carl 17th    tony will b      ding dong!!!!   



just  3 spots very doable and he wins tiebreaker
 
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by vegasdennis:




not sure how you came up with that

 

You are correct.  This is not a full proof plan but chances are they will be very close to each other on the track. 

 

 If fuel mileage does come into play I would think Stewart has the advantage....thoughts???

 
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Posted: #21
I used "pretty much" and "chances are" in my last 2 posts trying to justify a wager.  This is why I am not a professional gambler...ha
 
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Posted: #22

As of today, you're wager is $400 to win $2,100 (I'm assuming the $2,100 is all profit).  The loss of $120 in Phoenis and a live wager of $260 to win $240 on the 14 @ -110 from last week. So many possiblities exist, let's look at a few.

1) Do nothing. 99 wins it all +$1,720. The 14 wins it all - $280
2) Using Sportsbook odds for the 14 to win the championship @ +120 you could hedge till the cows come home in different scenirio's dependant upon your personal choice
3) Sportsbook also has the 14 @ +120 vs the 99 heads up
4)  If you were to hedge at all (a big if) and use Sportsbook as the example, the wager is straight up as you could possibly hit a middle. What are your odds for both straight up and championship wagers? The remote possibility of hitting a middle is very interesting if the odds warrant.
 
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Posted: #23
scratch that, I see the Championship Odds are also posted in the Match Up section
 
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Posted: #24
I only hedged due to the unknown of Phoenix and with Carl still leading I have decided to let it ride and not hedge anymore. Carl has won 2 of the last 3 at Homestead and his mile and a half record this year is ridiculous so Im gonna roll the dice. 

The $120 matchup bet at Phoenix was brutal as Carl won but didnt extend his points league.

I have around $780 that I have bet and will lose $280 if Tony wins, and win $1720 if Carl wins the cup. Wish me luck!!
 
 
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Posted: #25

Quote Originally Posted by vegasdennis:




not sure how you came up with that

 

Me either!!

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