Posted:
#1
Mediocre 2-2 last night. On to the next....
Washington Bullets +5
I rarely bet on WAS, but if there's one thing PHI doesn't deserve, it's being tagged as a home fave. PHI is 2-7 ATS as a home fave, and 2-12 ATS at home overall. Clearly, PHI makes its living on the road, where it's a respectable 12-7 ATS. PHI plays down to the level of its opponent too, notching 1-5 ATS against sub-.500 teams at home. Throw in WAS's recent troubles involving Arenas and PHI seems to be too easy, and that's why I believe the pot of gold is on the other side of the street.
Chicago Bulls +6.5
I believe the Bulls truly are back. That last game vs OKC, they were in it til a big slipup in the 4th. When that happens, they should be looking to bounce back. This spot is too easy as a square play: CHA rested, 7-2 ATS as a home fave and 10-5 ATS overall at home, vs the 3-10 road dog ATS Bulls on a b2b (CHI is 4-10 ATS overall on the road). I just can't shake the feeling that CHA is about to have its 4-game ATS win streak broken by the unlikeliest of teams.
Detroit Pistons -8.5
It used to be NJN and CHi which were the no-brainer teams to bet against, but now that those teams have slightly recovered, it's DET who has taken that spot of infamy. So why back them against DAL? This Mavs team, despite its good 23-11 SU record, is a miserable 0-8 ATS in the last 4 weeks as a home fave, and 4-11 ATS in that category overall (all home ATS wins as home fave came in November, none in December). That's a clear sign of laziness: doing only enough to win, but not to cover when at home. Something about the road energizes the Mavs, though: they're 8-3 ATS as road faves, 4-3 ATS as road dogs, for a total of 12-6 ATS on the road overall. This spot, notwithstanding its motivation for revenge after being blown out by LAL last game, is just not conducive to a DAL cover. Laziness prevails, Piss-tons, hungry for a win, show up and cover.
Leaning:
Phoenix Suns -2.5
There are 2 teams tonight coming off blowout losses: one is DAL (to LAL), the other is PHX (to MEM). Yes, PHX is a poor 2-3 ATS coming off blowout losses (counted as those lost by 10 pts or more), while SAC is a respectable 10-8 ATS at home. What can very well cause me to go for the Suns is the very simple motivation that a team will run on after an embarrassing loss: redemption. I understand SAC is the league's 4th most winning ATS team (19-12-2), but that number has been padded by wins over sub-.500 teams (12-4 ATS). As they face more quality teams, I expect this home ATS figure to go down. SAC is 4-6 ATS overall as a home dog, and 1-4 ATS in that category in the past 4 weeks. Their winning home ATS mark as dogs has clearly slipped, and tonight is no good spot to reclaim it.
BOL folks
Washington Bullets +5
I rarely bet on WAS, but if there's one thing PHI doesn't deserve, it's being tagged as a home fave. PHI is 2-7 ATS as a home fave, and 2-12 ATS at home overall. Clearly, PHI makes its living on the road, where it's a respectable 12-7 ATS. PHI plays down to the level of its opponent too, notching 1-5 ATS against sub-.500 teams at home. Throw in WAS's recent troubles involving Arenas and PHI seems to be too easy, and that's why I believe the pot of gold is on the other side of the street.
Chicago Bulls +6.5
I believe the Bulls truly are back. That last game vs OKC, they were in it til a big slipup in the 4th. When that happens, they should be looking to bounce back. This spot is too easy as a square play: CHA rested, 7-2 ATS as a home fave and 10-5 ATS overall at home, vs the 3-10 road dog ATS Bulls on a b2b (CHI is 4-10 ATS overall on the road). I just can't shake the feeling that CHA is about to have its 4-game ATS win streak broken by the unlikeliest of teams.
Detroit Pistons -8.5
It used to be NJN and CHi which were the no-brainer teams to bet against, but now that those teams have slightly recovered, it's DET who has taken that spot of infamy. So why back them against DAL? This Mavs team, despite its good 23-11 SU record, is a miserable 0-8 ATS in the last 4 weeks as a home fave, and 4-11 ATS in that category overall (all home ATS wins as home fave came in November, none in December). That's a clear sign of laziness: doing only enough to win, but not to cover when at home. Something about the road energizes the Mavs, though: they're 8-3 ATS as road faves, 4-3 ATS as road dogs, for a total of 12-6 ATS on the road overall. This spot, notwithstanding its motivation for revenge after being blown out by LAL last game, is just not conducive to a DAL cover. Laziness prevails, Piss-tons, hungry for a win, show up and cover.
Leaning:
Phoenix Suns -2.5
There are 2 teams tonight coming off blowout losses: one is DAL (to LAL), the other is PHX (to MEM). Yes, PHX is a poor 2-3 ATS coming off blowout losses (counted as those lost by 10 pts or more), while SAC is a respectable 10-8 ATS at home. What can very well cause me to go for the Suns is the very simple motivation that a team will run on after an embarrassing loss: redemption. I understand SAC is the league's 4th most winning ATS team (19-12-2), but that number has been padded by wins over sub-.500 teams (12-4 ATS). As they face more quality teams, I expect this home ATS figure to go down. SAC is 4-6 ATS overall as a home dog, and 1-4 ATS in that category in the past 4 weeks. Their winning home ATS mark as dogs has clearly slipped, and tonight is no good spot to reclaim it.
BOL folks
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