Posted:
#1
'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u'11-12 NFL: 42-35-1 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NCAAB: 5-1 (83.3%) +3.90u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL-P: 3-2 (60.0%) +0.70u
'11-12 NBA: 10-11 (47.6%) -0.05u
Portland Trailblazers -3 (-110)
When this line opened, the first thing I asked myself was, "is this a trap?" Portland is 6-0 at home beating Philadelphia, Denver and both Los Angeles teams. That's a very impressive resume! It's worth noting that I have Orlando ranked below all 4 of these teams in my NBA power rankings. Howard looked very disinterested in his last game and with a supporting cast as mediocre as Orlando's, if he doesn't have a good game - they don't stand a chance against elite NBA teams. He may be feeling a bit sour about not being traded yet. One thing that concerns me is that Portland is on the second game of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. Orlando on the other hand had a 2 days off to prepare for this game and they've been on the west coast for 3 days already. That being said, I'll bank on fatigue not being a big issue for the Trailblazers since they have tomorrow off and they'll be looking at this game as a chance to get another big home win before starting a difficult 6 game road trip. One major defensive statistic that stands out in this game is Portland is the #1 team in the NBA at defending the 3. Orlando attempts 42 shots per game from outside 16 feet (more than half of their attempted shots). This means that when the ball isn't in Howard's hand, they rely on outside shooting to produce points. That doesn't bode well when playing on the road against one of the best perimeter defending teams in the league. From a numbers perspective, Portland's relative strength over Orlando is 13.5. At -3, Vegas is giving 10.5 points of value to Portland backers. Seeing value this extreme is sometimes a bit confusing as it could be a trap by Vegas. However, I believe the low number is just an attempt to account for Portland's fatigue and Orlando's extra rest. I'll trust my numbers with another wager on Portland to continue their domination at home. They're a proud team, defending RIP City means a lot to this squad.
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