2014 Conference Finals.........Power Ratings.......History and more...............

POWER RATINGS....................................................

1. Spurs --- 7.81

2. OKC --- 7.5

3. Pacers ---5.59

4. Heat --- 5.49

My lines seem to get better the deeper we get into the playoffs, my power ratings stay the same as they were at the end of regular season, we don't over-react to a small sample of games as the public will and we'll get some inflated lines.

Past 4 years my lines in conference finals are --- 13-6 ATS

Add 4 pts for home court, with a 1 pt difference between my line and closing line we have a play. Important to use the closing line as this factors-in the public's perception.

MY LINE....................Pacers -4.1 over the Heat

Past 4 years With a 1 pt diff and the team  coming off a ..................................

 SU loss ---  8-3 ATS

ATS loss --- 9-1 ATS

Trailing in the series --- 10-4 ATS

These are 3 great spots to back my lines with a 1 pt diff to the closing line.

THE LARGEST VALUE MISMATCH IN CONFERENCE FINALS...............................

Here's the past 4 years largest value mismatches..........................

2013 --- Spurs by 1.42 over Grizz --- 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS

2012 --- OKC by 1.88 over Spurs --- 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS

2011 --- Heat by .55 over Bulls --- 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS

2010 --- Suns by 1.93 over Lakers ---2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS

 Combined record  backing the team in every game ...........14-7 SU & 15-6 ATS

And the Largest Value Mismatch is......................OKC BY 1.09 over Spurs

Trailing in the series --- 6-4 ATS

Off 2 SU losses --- 3-0 ATS

Trailing by 2 games  --- 3-0 ATS

Son-of-a-gun, with Ibaka's injury things might be tough for the Thunder, will likely pass on this or make very small plays at best.

Coming off 2 SU losses and/or trailing by 2 games could still be some good value with the points.

thanks CLAW

G.L.

COMMON DENOMINATORS OF PAST CONFERENCE CHAMPS

Weak rebounding teams rarely make the NBA Finals...................since 1974 the first year the league tracked off and def rebs and opp rebs, just 7 of 80 NBA Final teams were under 49% rebs.

Heat ---  46.8%

Most road teams that advance to the finals are at least 1% or better in one of the 2 stat battles which have the highest correlation to victory....................FG % OR REB %.

Spurs --- FG % 48.6 - 44.4 = 4.2%...................rebs 49.55

OKC --- 47.1 - 43.6 = 3.5%..................rebs 51.05 %

Advantage OKC, better by 1.5 % in rebs

Heat --- 50.1 - 45.7 = 4.4%.....................rebs 46.8 %

Pacers --- 44.9 - 42 = 2.9 %....................rebs 50.85%

Heat by 1.5% in FG%

Pacers by 4.05% in rebs

Heat better by over 1% but offset by Pacers huge advantage in rebs, teams over 2% in either stat  win the series a high % of the time.

POWER RATING 2..............................

1. OKC --- 54.25

2. Spurs --- 53.71

3. Pacers --- 53.04

4. Heat --- 50.92

This power rating is a little more rebound heavy , it works well in conf finals and finals.  Better team wins series 63%. Team 1% or better wins 77%.

Last season in 2013..................................

Heat --- FG%..... 5.6%...............REBS  47.6%

Pacers --- FG%...1.6%..............REBS 52.45

Pacers had huge advantage in rebs but look at Heat's advantage in FG %, a whopping 4%. Both teams with 4 pt advantages last year.

Heat have fall'in off quite a bit in FG% while the Pacers are far better this year than last year.

POWER RATINGS 2..............................

2013.--- Pacers -  53.87.......Heat - 53.24, rebound heavy but Pacers are not better by 1% as they are  this year.

POWER RATING 1.......................

2013 --- Heat --- 9.11............Pacers --- 4.95, Heat by a landslide last season.

2014 --- Pacers 5.59.........Heat 5.49

The info strongly suggest these 2 teams have gone in different directions since last year, the Pacers represent a golden oppurtunity to back the better team at a great price...................................................

Pacers to win the series over Heat.........................................

I was all prepared to ride OKC over the Spurs but with Ibalka's injury I'm out. Tough break, I thought for sure 1 of those 2 would win the series with a possibility of getting both, a great spot to be in since both were dogs...................

Pacers +3 (-105) over Heat --- 5.25 units to win 5 units

Pacers to win series over Heat (+340) --- 5 units to win 17 units

My lines --- 1-0 ATS, won 5 units

Pacers lead series 1-0

POWER RATING PLAYS..................................

My line.......Spurs -4.31

Of course that's with Ibaka in the line-up,  my line favors OKC but I'll pass on this game 1.

LARGEST VALUE MISMATCH..........................

I'll pass on game 1, however there may still be value on OKC before all is said and done, we'll look for the right spots down the road.

I passed on both game 2's.

On to game 3's.

My lines....................

Haet -3.9 over Pacers, I'll ride the Pacers in game 3, but will wait it out and see if this line continues going up. 

OKC  -7.69 over Spurs, OKC recieves 4 additional desperation pts for being down 0-2. This line is based  on OKC with Ibaka in the line-up.

How many points is Ibaka worth ? He's not worth 5 points to the spread.

My lines off ATS loss 9-1 ATS, off SU loss 8-3 ATS, trailing in the series 10-4 ATS.

My lines had no play on OKC in game 2, but here with a huge diff to actual line and I doubt Ibaka is worth 5 points to the spread.

The beauty of info like this it helps us stay level-headed and well-grounded so we don't over-react to a few games.

LARGEST VALUE MISMATCH.......................

This might just be the spot for OKC, teams trailing in the series have won 60% ATS coming into this season and are 3-0 ATS off 2 SU losses and when trailing by 2 games.

BOUNCE FACTOR FADE...........................................

Spurs are now playing on an unsustainable level of play. What goes up must come down and for the Spurs it's coming  down soon.

We now see many over-reacting to the 1st 2 games, some even calling the Spurs the greatest team ever, this kind of talk is an indication the Spurs have ........PEAKED............and are ready to fall.

Add it all up boys and everything points to OKC in game 3, I could make a strong case for this to be a play-of-the-year-type-play.

I'll be on Pacers and OKC in game 3's but will wait it out at this point in hopes of these lines getting better if I see the lines beginning to move against my teams I'll get down quick on them but untill that happens I'd keep waiting in hopes of these lines moving to our advantage............................

Pacers +7 over Heat --- 5.5 units

It appears the line is beggining to fall back to 6.5, I'd grab the 7 while it's still available.

If the Pacers are going to win this series, which they have a very solid chance to do they should win game 3 SU. You could sprinkle a bit on Pacerrs ML but I'll take the points in a game where the dog has a solid chance to win SU is a great spot.

My lines in conference finals last 4 years off a SU loss 8-3 ATS, off a ATS loss 9-1 ATS.

If the Pacers loss game 3 SU and fail to cover they'll be in the same spot in game 4, which gives us an excellent chance to go at least 1-1 ATS worst case, with a strong possibility to have a winning record..

OKC -2 (-115) over Spurs --- 5.75 units 

The line's moving up, so let's grabbed the 2 while it lasts.

Game 3's --- 1-1 ATS

My lines in conference finals  --- 2-1 ATS, won 4.5 units

Largest value mismatch --- 1-2 ATS in every game, of coarse the 2 losses without Ibaka in which I passed on the 2 games, but  the method did  score off a prime spot, teams off  2 SU losses and teams  trailing by 2 games now goes to 4-0 ATS past 5 years.

Bounce Factor Fade --- Spurs go from 50% shooting in game 2 to 39% in game 3. I would expect that regression to continue for the Spurs in game 4.

On to game 4's.

My Lines ..........................

Heat -3.9 over Pacers

OKC -3.69 over Spurs

I'm seeing 6.5's and 6's out there in Heat/Pacers game., seems this line might be headed down so let's grab the 6.5 while we can.

OKC/Spurs game is a possible no play on closing line, we need a 1pt diff.

Pacers +6.5 over Heat --- 5.5 units

teams off a SU loss now 9-4 ATS, off a ATS loss now 10-2 ATS, trailing in the series now 11-4 ATS, past 5 years.

All 3 prime spots on the Pacers in game 4...........................

When all 3 prime spots on a team with at least  1pt diff in my line and closing line in the past 4 years in conference finals...............4-1 ATS................... 1-0 ATS this year with a win on OKC in game 3.

This might be another great spot to ride in the years ahead, we'll see if we get the win tonight on the Pacers.

The Heat shot 68% well into the 2cd half of game 3......  after shooting 48% in the 1st half, and Allen was 4 for 4 from 3 pt land in the 4th quarter.

Not likely the Heat will repeat that.

I could make a strong case for the Pacers to be a play-of-the-year-type-play, but the Pacers being the Pacers I'll procede with caution but will likely be kicking myself after the game.....................................

Good Luck in tonight's game and enjoy what should be a great game in game 4.................................................

My line...............OKC -3.69

Looks like this line won't get to 3, I see only 2.5's out there with one 2 and the only 3's have already come down to 2.5's.

OKC -2.5 over Spurs --- 5.5 units

Largest Value Mismatch......................

OKC -2.5 over Spurs --- 5.5 units

Bounce Factor Fade .....................

OKC -2.5 over Spurs --- 5.5 units

All 3 methods on OKC tonight...................................

Boy oh boy those Pacers really, really disappoint me. They seemed at times not in the game, dumb mental mistakes and such.

The Heat were the ones definately bringing their A- game.

One things for sure, when the Heat decide to crank-up their defense the Pacers don't have the ball handlers to handle it.

I don't think that will be they case in the finals against a west team.

Pacers will be in the same spot in game 5, off a SU loss, off a ATS loss and trailing in the series, I stay with the info and hope for a for the best.

My Lines Game 4's --- 1-1 ATS

My Lines Conference Finals --- 3-2 ATS, won 4 units

Largest Value Mismatch --- 2-2 ATS in every game, obviously 0-2 without Ibaka in games 1 & 2 in which I passed.

Bounce Factor Fade --- 2-0 ATS

On to game 5's.............................

My Lines............................

Pacers -4.1

Spurs -4.31

The beauty of the info it helps us stay level-headed and not over-react to a couple of games.

Pacers are 1-2 ATS with my lines, I passed on game 2, but my lines have been down before on a team and come roar'in back, the Pacers are certainly able to win a game at home and cover in game 6 to still post a winning ATS record, so let's not over-react .

Pacers +2 over Heat --- 5.5 units

I'm seeing alot of 1.5's and some 2's out there, this line seems it's heading down so grab the 2 while it's still available.

Pacers off a SU loss - off a ATS loss - trailing in the series,  all 3 prime spots favor the Pacers.

Best of Luck................... Enjoy the game ........................