I'll be working all day today but should be home well before game time, but our official play is OKC with a line 7.5 or higher and under 7.5 we lean Spurs.
And Spurs to win the series.
I would give OKC a good chance to win game 1 or 2 SU. History would side more likely game 2 and especially true if Spurs win game 1 big.
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I'll be working all day today but should be home well before game time, but our official play is OKC with a line 7.5 or higher and under 7.5 we lean Spurs.
And Spurs to win the series.
I would give OKC a good chance to win game 1 or 2 SU. History would side more likely game 2 and especially true if Spurs win game 1 big.
There have been 17.... 65 game winners in history, the first time there's been 2 in the same year.
14 of the 65 game winners won the title (82.4%)
There have been 12..... 65 game winners out-shoot their opponents in the most important stat with the highest correlation to winning and highest prediction value going forward FG % by 3.5 % or better, 11 of the 12 teams won the title (91.7%).
The lone loser...................yep it's LBJ and his 2009 Cavs .
And he almost did it a 2cd time with the 2013 Heat.
The other 2 65 game winners failing to win title 73 Celtics 1.4% FG % diff, the worst of all 65 game winners and 2007 Mavs 2% FG % the 2cd worst and losing in the opening round.
Far majority of teams that win the title are 2.5% or better and the 2...65 game winners could not equal the ave champion let-alone the stronger 65 game winners.
The info tells us the importance of good ole FG % differential.
Teams who excell will go far teams that don't won't get very far.
Warriors 5.8%, best in the league
Spurs 4.8%, 2cd best.
OKC 3.8%
Heat 2.8%
Hawks 2.6%
Cavs 1.2%
Pacers 1%
Raptors .7%
Blazers (-.3)
Hornets (-.5%)
Want to know why the Raptors fail year after year, well there's your answer, same story as last year, untill they up their game in this key area don't count on this team making the finals.
Cavs 1.2 % is not very impressive for the talent they have.
They were 1.3 % at the all-star break and finished the season slightly worse at 1.2%.
This is not what NBA Champions are made of.
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There have been 17.... 65 game winners in history, the first time there's been 2 in the same year.
14 of the 65 game winners won the title (82.4%)
There have been 12..... 65 game winners out-shoot their opponents in the most important stat with the highest correlation to winning and highest prediction value going forward FG % by 3.5 % or better, 11 of the 12 teams won the title (91.7%).
The lone loser...................yep it's LBJ and his 2009 Cavs .
And he almost did it a 2cd time with the 2013 Heat.
The other 2 65 game winners failing to win title 73 Celtics 1.4% FG % diff, the worst of all 65 game winners and 2007 Mavs 2% FG % the 2cd worst and losing in the opening round.
Far majority of teams that win the title are 2.5% or better and the 2...65 game winners could not equal the ave champion let-alone the stronger 65 game winners.
The info tells us the importance of good ole FG % differential.
Teams who excell will go far teams that don't won't get very far.
Warriors 5.8%, best in the league
Spurs 4.8%, 2cd best.
OKC 3.8%
Heat 2.8%
Hawks 2.6%
Cavs 1.2%
Pacers 1%
Raptors .7%
Blazers (-.3)
Hornets (-.5%)
Want to know why the Raptors fail year after year, well there's your answer, same story as last year, untill they up their game in this key area don't count on this team making the finals.
Cavs 1.2 % is not very impressive for the talent they have.
They were 1.3 % at the all-star break and finished the season slightly worse at 1.2%.
The public backing Pacers and driving the line down to 5.5 , we need 5 or less for a play on Raptors.
Based on history the way this sereies has playout, the home team should win the series, I'd definately lean Raptors SU and if line keeps dropping with public coming in on Pacers would be confident Raptors get the cover as well.
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The public backing Pacers and driving the line down to 5.5 , we need 5 or less for a play on Raptors.
Based on history the way this sereies has playout, the home team should win the series, I'd definately lean Raptors SU and if line keeps dropping with public coming in on Pacers would be confident Raptors get the cover as well.
Warriors line opened -7.5, is Curry worth 7 points ?
Not likely but now it's bet up to -9.5. Is Curry worth 5 p;ts, possibly, I'd pass with this line.
Warriors being a largest mismatch team but that's with Curry in the line-up. Maybe not without Curry.
Warriors not a good spot, I would not play Warriors here. We'll find better spots down the road. If Warriors do win big may be time to fade them next game.
Lean Raptors ML and will make a play if line drops to Raptors -5.
We keep riding the Heat...........................
Heat -6 over Hornets --- 3.3 units to win 3 units
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MY LINES............................
Heat -5.32 over Hornets
Raptors -6.19 over Pacers
Warriors -14.56 over Blazers
Warriors line opened -7.5, is Curry worth 7 points ?
Not likely but now it's bet up to -9.5. Is Curry worth 5 p;ts, possibly, I'd pass with this line.
Warriors being a largest mismatch team but that's with Curry in the line-up. Maybe not without Curry.
Warriors not a good spot, I would not play Warriors here. We'll find better spots down the road. If Warriors do win big may be time to fade them next game.
Lean Raptors ML and will make a play if line drops to Raptors -5.
We keep riding the Heat...........................
AVE ALL 5 KEY STAT BATTLES.........................................
Spurs by 1.17
GS by 5.43
Cavs by .39
Heat by .45
Heat are the first road team to be better on ave in all 5 key stat battles but the Raptors are better in 3 of the 5, Heat bigger in the 2 they win.
The info suggests, A toss-up who wins.
Of the big favs this round Cavs/Hawks the closest match-up.
Hawks coming off last year's beatdown by Cavs will be hungry and ready, does not mean they win the series but could hang in much better then people think and might be right there at the end with a chance.
The info suggest Hawks have a good shot to win game 1 or 2 SU.
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AVE ALL 5 KEY STAT BATTLES.........................................
Spurs by 1.17
GS by 5.43
Cavs by .39
Heat by .45
Heat are the first road team to be better on ave in all 5 key stat battles but the Raptors are better in 3 of the 5, Heat bigger in the 2 they win.
The info suggests, A toss-up who wins.
Of the big favs this round Cavs/Hawks the closest match-up.
Hawks coming off last year's beatdown by Cavs will be hungry and ready, does not mean they win the series but could hang in much better then people think and might be right there at the end with a chance.
The info suggest Hawks have a good shot to win game 1 or 2 SU.
Thanks Claw. Really appreciate your write-ups and thoughts. have enjoyed following (and making some $) throughout the playoffs so far.
Looking back on historical, in 2014, Spurs destroyed Thunder in Game 1 & Game 2 (covered easily) ... with both teams being fairly similar, I wonder this will be similar.
I think any number less than 8 throughout the series is a must play on Hawks based on 2015.
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Thanks Claw. Really appreciate your write-ups and thoughts. have enjoyed following (and making some $) throughout the playoffs so far.
Looking back on historical, in 2014, Spurs destroyed Thunder in Game 1 & Game 2 (covered easily) ... with both teams being fairly similar, I wonder this will be similar.
I think any number less than 8 throughout the series is a must play on Hawks based on 2015.
Now if you want to get a bit risky, you could parlay Hawks, OKC ML on game and another parlay on the 1st half for a small amount like half a unit or so.
You could also mix Hawks 1st half with OK game
OKC 1st half with Hawks game.
This covers every angle.
Now here's the beauty, if Hawks fail to win SU in either 1st half or game you then make the same exact parlay with OKC and Hawks game 2.
You have 2 chances with the Hawks, and based on the spot it works-out perfect as OKC is in the better spot with only 1 chance.
I will definately lean playing this.
We can hit these every now and again, but obviously it's not something we can hit quite often so make it a very small play.
We could also make the exact same parlays on the line instead of ML, and do the same if Hawks lose either 1st half or game, playing it this way has a very good chance to hit.
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I would LEAN Hawks and OKC ML's
And Hawks and OKC ML's 1ST HALF.
Now if you want to get a bit risky, you could parlay Hawks, OKC ML on game and another parlay on the 1st half for a small amount like half a unit or so.
You could also mix Hawks 1st half with OK game
OKC 1st half with Hawks game.
This covers every angle.
Now here's the beauty, if Hawks fail to win SU in either 1st half or game you then make the same exact parlay with OKC and Hawks game 2.
You have 2 chances with the Hawks, and based on the spot it works-out perfect as OKC is in the better spot with only 1 chance.
I will definately lean playing this.
We can hit these every now and again, but obviously it's not something we can hit quite often so make it a very small play.
We could also make the exact same parlays on the line instead of ML, and do the same if Hawks lose either 1st half or game, playing it this way has a very good chance to hit.
There almost certainly will be some shockers coming this week, I'd be very careful throwing down big money on these favs who've been pounding teams as though they can never lose.
But looking around the site that seems to be what many believe.
Many of the people who made money to this point are likely to get slammed in the next few days....................
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There almost certainly will be some shockers coming this week, I'd be very careful throwing down big money on these favs who've been pounding teams as though they can never lose.
But looking around the site that seems to be what many believe.
Many of the people who made money to this point are likely to get slammed in the next few days....................
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nice thread claw
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