42-23 playoffs overall 12-3 run +$7950

Unlike most of the guys here, I have been honest throughout. When I went 0-6 in baseball, I came out and posted it. Anyways, I'm not waiting...here goes!

Game 4 NBA finals

San Antonio-2

Under 187.5   very big here     These teams combined to make 24 3's tonight, yet the game only went over by 2.

  Game 2 was an anomaly when the Spurs controlled the whole game, and then Miami went on a 33-5 run. Tonight was not a fluke. SA beat them in every way. They controlled the whole game. It was not like game 2 when SA controlled the game and lost big. Miami was never in this game. Was the 3's a fluke? Of course, but that's not the challenge for Miami. Lebron is not going to get off in this series, so then all you hope goes onto the role players. They are not going to play well in SA...no matter what people wants. Miami's body language was not good tonight, and I think it's because they know if both teams play their best, SA will be champs. Like I have said about Miami all year. You beat them on the boards. SA was plus 16 tonight. Take away the 3's and SA was still the most dominant team. SA is not going to turn the ball over again in this series like they did in game 2, and Miami is not all of a sudden going to rebound the basketball. San Antonio's role players will not hit all of those shots, but they will outplay Miami's role players in SA. I don't see this series going back to Miami...GL

Another thing, they have won 2 games, and controlled the other, much of which without Tony Parker playing his best. Even more dangerous.

I like the logic. 

Of course it's not a fluke. Just like Miami's role players(Chalmers,Allen,Miller,Cole) all played well at home. Tonight, SA role players played well, which they will continue to do in San Antonio. If you read my thread, I stated this would happen before this series.

Like the play, great wtite up. GL

Nice choice with Sa.Seems i was the one undervaluating them

TY

I agree with the Under, but I'm on Heat -1.  

Nice write-up, makes sense, I expect a close game...but it is still 

nice pick gl bgk   I go back and forth on the side

  OK, obviously you guys have not watched the NBA for very long, or just do not understand my terminology here. When I said San Antonio controlled the game, they did. For those who don't understand let me explain. Toward the end of the third quarter, the score was 62-61 SA. That is very low scoring, which means SA was playing their style of basketball. Miami wants to get out in transition, and get easy points. They want the game to be up and down. San Antonio, on the other hand, wants to slow the game down, play half court, and shoot 3's. At that point, San Antonio was controlling the tempo. More importantly, San Antonio had the lead up to that point. I don't care how many quarters each team had won, I only care about the overall score of the game. Anyone that knows anything about basketball knows how hard it is to win on the road in the playoffs, esp in the finals, and even more so against a great team like Miami. So in order to be in "control" of the game, all you need to be doing well is playing your tempo and winning. Both very hard things to do on the road against high level opponents. That is exactly what SA had done to that point. I am only trying to help you all understand the break down, and some of you guys go overboard and think I'm saying SA was just beating the crap out of Miami...not at all my point.
  Now that brings me to my next point, smoothing into transition of tonight's game 4. The thing that changed momentum that night in game 2, was Miami started locking down the Spur's players and getting every loose ball. They started to double team the ball, and got SA to turn the ball over. That got the Heat into transition, and gave them some easy fast break points. Once again, anyone that knows anything about ball knows, if a shooter is cold the way to get them on track is to get some easy points at the rim. That is exactly what happened after Miami got rolling, and then they could not miss anything. On the other side, the Spurs started playing tentatively, could not make anything, and continued to turn the ball over.
  That brings us to tonight's game as I will break it down a little further. It has been proven already in this series, and in the past, if you limit Miami's fast break points they are susceptible to losing. Pop is the greatest coach in NBA history in my opinion, and definitely has a blue print of doing this. First and foremost, you cannot turn the ball over against Miami, esp turnovers that directly lead to fast break points. Second, you have to have everyone collapse the paint, and make the Heat a jump shooting team. Lebron is not a great mid range player, or jump shooter. No matter what Heat apologists and Lebron fans want us to think he is not going to beat you shooting jump shots. Yes he has an occasionally game where is is 11-19 outside the paint, including 3-4 from down town, but most of those are blow outs, and no pressure on him whatsoever. Like I have stated in the past, if he had worked on his mid-range game, and became a better shooter earlier in his career he would go down as the single greatest player of all time, but he did not. Now it is too late. How many 15+feet jump shots have you ever seen him make in the last few seconds of a game?. Back in 07, in the finals against SA, Bron shot 8 for 47 from outside the paint. That is sad, and under 20%. He is not much better in this series, and SA defensively is not nearly as good now as back in 07. Now obviously this is not all of Lebron's fault. You can look around and point the finger at a lot of guys on this Heat squad, other than Mike Miller(When Miller is your best player on the court, you're in trouble. And that's coming from a die hard Gators fan). The problem is, just like I stated, role players just do not play well on the road in the NBA, esp in such a big stage as this. Chalmers, Allen, Battier just are not going to turn in on and play out of their mind. And for Lebron, no matter what people want to think, he is not going to all of a sudden become a guy who wants the ball in his hand at a big moment. Yes, I agree, he passes a lot because he is the kind of guy who wants to get his teammates involved. It is also, however, because he wants no part of a big shot, or being criticized. If you cannot see this, then maybe you should not be betting. Even people who don't care either way who wins this series are saying the same things(refer to Magic and the deer in the headlights comments). So now Pop knows all he has to do is back off of Lebron and Wade, give them space, and they will wilt. The Spurs are backing off of Lebron up to 7 feet just daring him to shoot the ball, and he wants no part.
  So now comes in the Spurs offense. Just like I stated in my threads, I thought SA would make adjustments to get Parker open. I said they would change the screen man to a more versatile player than Duncan or Splitter, which is exactly what they did. What that does, is makes Miami respect the screen setter, and stay at home on him rather than trap or double Parker. This frees up perimeter players and gives SA wide open looks. For the guy who told me that Miami has better shooters, first I don't agree I think they are even. But second it does not matter who the better shooters are, because if one is wide open, and the other takes contested 3's with hands in the face constantly, the open guy will always shoot better. SA is not respecting the outside mid range shots of LBJ, and Wade so they can stay at home on their shooters. The only guy for Miami who has hit shots from behind the arc this series consistently is Miller. And for the most part, those have been highly contested.
  Another thing I have constantly said about beating Miami, is to make sure you kill them on the boards. In the last game when SA blew out Miami, all your heard was about the 3's, and rightfully so. But that was not the only thing that made Miami get beat down like they did. They were out rebounded by 16, to a team that has also all year been near the bottom in the NBA in rebounding. That to me, is all about hustle. It is also a reflection of Miami's character. Once they start to play bad on the offensive end, they stop hustling as hard on the loose ball kind of plays.
 

I do not think that SA will continue to hit 3's at the pace they have so far, but I do think they will get open looks. That means that they are going to hit some, and open up the court for everyone else. Before this series I picked SA to win, and nothing at all has changed my mind. Miami, over the last 3 years, has lived and died with the opposing team killing itself. Two years ago, that didn't happen as Dirk, and JT made sure of it. Last year, OKC did beat them selves, and understandably lost in the NBA finals. They were just too young. This is a Gregg Pop coached team, so the two things you know...they will not beat them selves, and they will put forth their best efforts. To me you can compare this series to Holyfield vs Tyson. Tyson is the ultra talented, stronger, more limber athlete. Holyfield is the fundamentally correct fighter, who's not as fast, strong, or agile. He respects his opponents, while Tyson just thinks of himself as unbeatable. Holyfield carries himself with class, while once again Tyson does the exact opposite. SA is the lessor talented, underdog of this series. The two things they do have that Miami does not, is true competitive leadership, and a mentality of hard blue collar workers. Lebron is always going to be himself, and that is someone we've gotten to know. He is the single most talented player to ever step on a court. He is also the most under-achieving superstar in North American sports. You give his size, his ability, and pure talent to MJ or Bird, with their will to win, they never lose. Most importantly he has a fear to lose. His fear to lose does not drive him to become better, like with Magic, Kobe, Bird. His fear scares him to hell, and makes him stay away from the big moment. Miami cannot win this series without him taking over, which I do not see happening. For those of you who think I'm hating on Lebron, I'm not. I'm stating what I see and trying to help people make money in the precess. For those apologists of Lebron, I leave you with this, especially Miami fans alike. After Miami loses this series" We all have to go back to our miserable lives, while Lebron is still Lebron". And when he opts out of his contract next year to go back to Cleveland, you too will grasp that LBJ is not " the chosen one", or "the King". He is just another great athlete who is a complete douchebag, that has one thing missing. HEART!

I got my bets in early so to anyone who has questions just ask.

42-23 playoffs
13-3 run

San Antonio -2
Under     187.5   BIG

GL all, and I know the lines have moved, but I still like under and definitely like SA+1.

One quick side note...for those who talk about Miami does not lose back to back, that is true. The last time it's happened was Jan. Did you know, with Parker, Duncan, and Ginobili all playing, the last time SA lost back to back was Dec.
 

Good Luck

One other note. There is no way that MJ, or Kobe, or any of the greats would have come out of the last game without any free throws. Even when they shot the ball badly, they made sure they got some free points from the charity line.

Thank you, and good luck to you as well.

  This is Good Stuff.... Miami faithful?  Well?

 

LMAO

I just realized I cheated myself on one win in the heading of this thread lol. I forgot to count SA second half last game.
13-3 run

Thanks for the breakdown man, as always lovin it !!!

You're welcome sir. I emailed you earlier.

I'm not sure you are right or wrong, but that's the biggest bunch of BS I think I've ever heard. GL though.