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6-0 posted plays... Reverse line moves

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Posted: #751
Where's that donkey"The Best" now?
 
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Posted: #752
Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:

So here are my picks for today and for my bet with Dougie, if that's still on, regardless of who's hurt, who's on steroids and who's been getting wasted at Liv...

Utah Jazz +3 1 unit

Phoenix Suns +5.5 1 unit

PHO/OKC  UNDER 200 1 unit

13-6-1 starting the day

Also putting a little something on Cavs +5.5 for my personal play, maybe even a lil on ML
 
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Posted: #753
Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:

Also taking Grizz  under 180 for a personal bet
 
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Posted: #754
Today's RLM picks:

Jazz  

Suns 

OKC under 

2-1 on today's picks, 15-7-1 on all posted plays

Not a perfect day, but not a losing day either..Will be right back at it tomorrow! GL guys
  

 
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Posted: #755
Quote Originally Posted by DA_BOYS:

Where's that donkey"The Best" now?

The silence is deafening...
 
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Posted: #756
TheBest's last thread from today... no replies...2 team parlay:

Suns +6 and Under 201 10 units.

OUCH!
 
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Posted: #757
whether is was RLM or not....

JAZZ +3
 
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Posted: #758
Quote Originally Posted by roondog248:

whether is was RLM or not....

JAZZ +3

 
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Posted: #759
with 73% of the public on the heat. I personally think the line should have moved more than a half a point, 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #760
nice job....will wait for your plays tmrw
 
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Posted: #761
Quote Originally Posted by roondog248:

with 73% of the public on the heat. I personally think the line should have moved more than a half a point, 

The money wasn't there to move the line that much. 
 
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Posted: #762
Congrats! Well take 2-1 all day long

 
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Posted: #763
Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:


The silence is deafening...

BOOM Jazz +3 SU winner rlm plays 2-1 on the night, 3-1 with Utah, Nice Call Mike where is the Heat Fan now??? haha I always know when some guy has 40,000+ posts they spend more time talking than learning anything, what a mule....thanks for the Miami Mush sunshine


 
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Posted: #764
I just found this thread today and am quite confused.. I was under the impression that only money moved the line.. what does it matter if 60,70,80% of tickets are on one side if 99% of the money is on the other..?
 
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Posted: #765
Quote Originally Posted by THE_BIZZLER:

I just found this thread today and am quite confused.. I was under the impression that only money moved the line.. what does it matter if 60,70,80% of tickets are on one side if 99% of the money is on the other..?

maybe I can help simplify it for you my man.

you are correct the pointspread only moves due to actual money, what we are looking for here is a side or total where 60-80% of the tickets are written for one side but the line actually moves against the consensus (hence the term reverse line movement) indicating that the pros are putting the majority of the money on the opposite side of the public consensus of the game 

here is an example from yesterdays game:

The Clippers game opened with an over/under of 185 and by gametime I observed 72% on one site and 75% on another with action on the "Over". 

Yet with this kind of action the line moved 5.5 to 6 points the "other" way and closed at 178 in some markets, this indicated the "sharp" money was coming in on the under irrespective of the fact that 2 out of 3 bets were placed on the over

 its a counter intuitive play and you'll often be taking the worse line because you are waiting for the market to move against you to which alerts you to the sharp money being on that particular side, opinions will differ as to which books to watch for the line movement and other variables are important to consider, here is the line movement on todays game from sportsbook spy

01/14/13Make Pick 
See Picks		707Los Angeles Clippers185

o 179.5 (-110)13085
OVER72%
8:05PM708Memphis185

u 179.5 (-110)
UNDER28%
 
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Posted: #766
problem is it has no reflection on money coming in on any side/total..line moves according to money so it doesn't matter if 72% of the tickets are on the over.. those tickets may not equal the bets of 4 or 5 huge players..
 
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Posted: #767
we need to stop flooding this thread and just let him post his plays.
 
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Posted: #768
Quote Originally Posted by THE_BIZZLER:

problem is it has no reflection on money coming in on any side/total..line moves according to money so it doesn't matter if 72% of the tickets are on the over.. those tickets may not equal the bets of 4 or 5 huge players..

well for a guy who 1 post ago was confused as to how it even works you sure sound like an expert now so I won't need to bother with any other information, I was just explaing the basic theory behind reverse line movements, I wasn't trying to debate how to gauge those movements or even that they work at all.

it's your decision how you end up applying that information or (lack of information as you might call it) to your wagers, good luck
 
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Posted: #769
where are you getting the information of number of tickets placed verses percentage of money bet on each side?. On scoresand odds.com the % only show how much $ is being bet on each side not how many wagers placed.
 
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Posted: #770
Quote Originally Posted by Puck_Off:

where are you getting the information of number of tickets placed verses percentage of money bet on each side?. On scoresand odds.com the % only show how much $ is being bet on each side not how many wagers placed.

I believe you're referring to the Money Line trend of % bettors. No where that I know of can you find the actual % of money being wagered on sides/totals/moneylines
 
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Posted: #771
early money comming on charlotte and denver... will be keeping an eye on those
 
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Posted: #772
Folks... There is no full proof system but I been doing this for a year or so and it actually pays, only issue is letting yourself make personal plays to offset winnings. All of you worried about the money aspect, I think the trends compute the $ on the game, but for caution I look at "Top Bets" on another site and if the public team is in the top ten and the opposing team is outside top ten, that bet has hit for me 84.8 percent, crazy I know but for all of y
 
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Posted: #773
But as you already know, Vegas pays its bills. My only worry trini is taking these games with only 70-80%... I personally wait until its around 82% and up.
 
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Posted: #774
again, another great post from a new poster... thanks fadeandlay. i'm always looking for more insights and angles to play this system...
... will definitely look into the big bet angle
 
 
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Posted: #775
that also lend merit to my theory of no longer  betting nba games on weekends of nfl playoffs...not enough money on the nba games... smaller bets can move lines... would you agree/
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