a Lakers v Warriors 1st round match-up would be...

a nightmare for the League.

This may be crazy but bear with me here. If Lakers land #4 and Warriors #5, then they meet in 1st round and League loses one of the darling money makers in the playoffs immediately. So, based on that premise, how do the last 11 games play out to avoid that scenario?

Scenario numero uno: Lakers catch Nuggs for 3 seed or even catch Rockets for 2 seed. Knowing a Western Finals bt/ Lakers and OKC would be a god send then Lakers would need to land in the 2/3 seed spot to avoid the 1-8 4-5 bracket. So my bet is Lakers overtake Nuggs and maybe even Hou. Lakes split the season series w the Nuggs but own the tiebreaker if needed b/c they have better divisional record (12-3 vs 7-7). Lakers play Rockets 2 more times and if win those 2 win the season series and climb 2 games closer.

So, if Lakers get out of 4/5 seed to avoid a possible 2nd round scenario vs OKC then they must get to 3 or 2 seed. Get ready for a Lakers run. Then, keeping in mind that we still want to avoid an early Lakers/Ws meeting then if Lakers land 3 seed then Ws must avoid 6 seed and if Lakers land 2 seed then Warriors must avoid 7 seed.

That's how my mind works and probably why I lose but that is what I am tracking next 11 games and betting accordingly. If Lakers and Ws meet in 1st round of playoffs then my theory is out the window and I look like a fool. 

A Hou loss at home tonight could get the ball rolling for the Lakers' advance up the leaderboard.  Not necessary but would go a long way in making that happen.

I like you're theory. It's always about and follow the money. I will be paying close attention to this... 

Dumb reasoning. A Lakers/Warriors 1st round will bring MASSIVE ratings. West is stacked anyways so viewers be watching regardless. This is illogical thinking imo

Thanks CCYCO we will see, could be totally off here.

a bit harsh YELA but to each their own...so in your thinking, a 1st round say 4v5 match-up of Lakers v Ws then winner faces OKC so potentially by end of 2nd round you'd have both Lakers and Warriors eliminated? I think it's safe to say that Lakers will land 2 or 3 and won't see OKC until Finals. Bets of luck.

Nuggs only have 9 games left and the remaining schedule they could easily go 5-4 or 6-3 at best imo which means Lakers at 2 back with 11 games remaining (that extra 2 games is HUGE) would only have to go 7-4 or 8-3 to lock up 3 seed and avoid Thunder, and of those remaining 11 games 8 are winnable and 2 are b2b against OKC so OKC will have some say in avoiding Lakers too, that';; be pivotol b2b games as both teams can control avoiding each other until late in the playoffs...that's where my loot is.

Interesting ref crew for Lakers/Pacers tonight as Guthrie/Cutler combo can control games and outcomes. In 6 games together this season, the margin of victory has been only 6,8,8,5 and 6. That's coming down to the wire every game. Guthrie and Nagy the other ref 1 game together and a 4pt margin. Guthrie had 1 game w Lakers this year a 6pt win over Clips to the under. In 2 games w Pacers 2 away wins by 11 and 7. 

I believe Lakers (and League) want Lakes to get the 3 seed thus avoiding OKC until West Finals and also forcing Nuggs to face OKC in the 1-8-4-5 bracket. Lakes just have to have 2 more wins than Nuggs coming down the stretch to grab the 3 seed. I think Nuggs go 5-4 and Lakers go 7-4 or 8-3.

Hey bud- always love reading your posts over the years as I’m more of a passive reader in this forum. Was wondering if it had any historical data or reference to this theory? Thanks! 

I hope you’re right cause I’m on lakers tonight 

thanks @ handyclapper and yes if you look at the way the Mavs and Clips ended last season both teams did everything they could to stay in the 4/5 seeds to avoid Nuggs who were 2 seed as 2 plays 7 the winner of 3-6 so 4-5 are safe that year. If you really look closely, Mavs went 7-3 and Clips went 6-4 down the stretch to secure 4/5 and avoid defending champs. It's like a chess game within a basketball game. There is no way, no way, Lakers face Warriors in 1st round of playoffs. So my thinking goes from there. Nuggs dominate Lakers so Lakes want to avoid them too. A 3 seed for Lakes avoids both OKC and Nuggs and may even get Nuggs bounced so Lakes don't have to face them at all.

I like your posts and have for years.  But I'll never find merit in these ratings theories.  The only true fans are us degenerate gamblers.  It's not like theres casual non betting fans out there who crave matchups.  

As gamblers we like to think subconsciously that we are savvy and the "rest of the audience" wants something different and they'll be catered to.  

The gamblers comprise the majority.   If I wasn't betting I wouldn't watch these glorified primadonnas.  In fact I would have to be paid to watch this shit.  But because I'm betting on it, I will absolutely watch Brooklyn vs Toronto 

Well, I still don't believe Lakers will be satisfied with the 4/5 seeding as that may give them a favorable 1st round match-up (Grizz) but then that lands them squarely facing OKC in 2nd round, and OKC most likely off a 4-0 or 4-1 series against whomever 8 seed is. If Lakers get to 51 wins and tie Nuggs at 51 wins, then Lakes grab 3 seed, face 6 seed in 1st round and won't see OKC until the Western Finals. Bonus, if Lakers grab 3 seed and bump Nuggs to 4 then Lakers can possibly not even face Nuggs if OKC eliminate Nuggs in the 1 v 4/5 match up. All this means, Lakers must win tonight in Memphis to get to 51 wins.

Lakers ML +110

onboard with this...Lakers aren't on that b2b like they were in chicago and if morant is a go what will he have in the tank?  bonus-where's this team's collective head at after just parting ways with the coach?

Good to have company satchbro...another interesting thing is Lakes play 2 games before Nuggs play again next Tues so if Lakes win tonight and next they gain 2 games and if Nuggs lose that one vs Minny then just like that Lakers are almost in 3 seed before anyone knew what happened

Rockets last 8 is brutal. They could go 4-4 or even 3-5 which may put them on 51 wins. This is going to be crazy. That last games of the regular season Sunday April 13 could determine Western seeding 2-5 and who faces OKC and Nuggs and, more importantly, who doesn't.... wowza. 

If Lakers pull this out against Hou then they are 1 game out of 3rd. I asked on Termine Eddie show today about Lakers wanting 3 seed and they both said they'd prefer Memphis but they didn't sound convincing when I asked them about Lakes getting 3 and possibly avoiding both Nuggs and OKC. If League wants a possible Lakers v Celtics Finals they win tonight and grab 3 seed in next week.

Now with Lakers approaching and securing 3 seed I think there's another opportunity as OKC can determine who they face coming down the stretch. I'd ask if I was Thunder and had to face a possible 4/5 winner who would that be or more importantly, who would I want in the 2/7 3/6 bracket to duke it out and face later? If you even go back 1 year when Celtics were on top of the world they tanked to Hawks twice and Knicks and if you dig deep that helped determine seeding and who they didn't face.

My point is, I bet OKC loses 2 or 3 out of next 5 SU for seeding match-ups and that's big +++ dog $$. 

Plus, my guy Scott Foster hasn't refereed a game in a month and he's on ice until these pivotal match-ups.

Theory once again is that Lakers grab 3 seed AND avoid 1st round match-up against Warriors so work backwards from there.

OKC faces Det/Hou/Lakers/Lakers/Suns/Jazz/Pels so essentially control who finishes 2-4 in the West which is nuts. That's crazy like controlling a yo-yo. I bet they let Hou win at Hou on Friday as that would benefit them the most. They want Lakers and Warriors in the 2/7 or 3/6 bracket as much as Lakers want to be in that bracket and avoid OKC until Finals. OKC does not want Ws or Lakes in 4/5, neither does the League.

@StraightWagers

 I see it very differently than that. I actually think it would be awesome for the league and for the NBA as a whole and for television ratings. It would be the highest rated first round playoff series in NBA history and the winner of that series gets OKC...

Now everybody would follow just to see how that team fares so you are keeping people's attention.

No Dukes respectfully. You’d get a great ratings 1st round then lose darlings Lakes or Warriors for the rest of the playoffs right off the bat. No way imo. Thanks though I appreciate your take I really do. Best is to have a Lakes v OKC Finals and only way to do that is the way I described. Die gas pumper.

And just like that, Lakers are in 3 seed…now I will continue to wager so that they avoid a possible Warriors match up 1st round 

I also feel OKC will strategically drop a few games coming down the stretch to help position teams in the 2-6 seeds so they essentially can pick who they face in the 4/5 and more importantly who they won’t and push to the 2/7 3/6 bracket

this is  all setting up a OKC/Lakers Western Finals imo

To remain in 3 spot Lakes just have to match wins rest of way w Nuggs. I wonder if they drop the game tonight v Warriors and save energy for trouncing Pels manana? Lakes have 7 games left Nuggs 5 i think Lakes go 5-2 and Nuggs 4-3

This is a unique situation I think in that Lakers would LOVE to stay in 3 spot and get Nuggs and Warriors in that 4/5 bracket. Think about it, that would mean Lakers could avoid Nuggs and Warriors altogether or at least avoid 2 of OKC, Ws and Nuggs.

so for that to happen, Lakers only have to win 4 of last 7 to remain tied w Nuggs if (and that’s a big if) Nuggs finish the season with 4 wins. Warriors don’t have that wiggle room. To remain in the 4/5 they kinda have to win 3 or 4 games coming down the stretch and they have a tough schedule.

long story short, Lakers have room to drop this game tonight and beat Pels tomorrow and really it benefits them long run as it goes towards avoiding OKC until Finals and eliminating Ws and/or Nuggs in the process

Warriors -1.5 +105

over 116.5 2nd half Grizz/Heat parlay to Warriors ML +260 these TNT early games this time of year tend to blow up 2nd and I'm heavy on Ws tonight