An Addendum to Force's and Scal's cap of Game 2

I agree 100%, Gene. Game 6 is untouchable in my opinion, so 4 and 5 are the only opportunities to make real money. The key games to winning a series are game 1, 3 and 5. You win those and you have about a 90% chance to win the series. Pop already got 1 and 3, so now they are eying 5. 

Exactly..... 

I feel if this were any other BUT the spurs.... Heat would have this thing locked. They are an all time team with a top 10 all time player still playing at an insane all start level. With what can arguably be said the best coach of all time. 

This kind of team is just not gonna squander away an opportunity like this. they are two seasoned, too veteran, and just too clutch. 

If these were the clippers or OKC I would hammer the Heat series line and take the prop bet that it would be over in 6 games or less. 

Well BB, I was expecting a windfall in my account on the Kings Series bet coming through and the puck, on the game-tying goal, gets stopped, not by one of the best goalies in the world (it went right through his legs) but by...snow cone-esque ice shavings about a nanometer before the goal line preventing OT and a possible sweep. Never in my life have I seen such a thing. If Lundqvist farts the puck goes in. 

Gotta see it to believe it @ :43 

For the game:

I always believed this would get to 2-2 and then a 3 game series for the title with the spurs having the edge with home court so that belief definitely favors the Heat ML.

So for 2-2, you made some great points. My focus would be on 2) 4) 5) and 8).

To 4 and 8, the game 7 ratings for rematch between the two best team would be ENORMOUS, especially with a three-repeat on the line. So the refs have to give the whistle to the Heat and that will be huge. The league is salivating over 7 games again especially as Sterling ruffles their feathers and Silver had to answer questions about him every halftime.

Now to the equally important 2 and 5.

You are absolutely right about the bench but this is really about Chalmers too. His pts in the last 3? 2,3, and 5. 

Interestingly after the game 3 loss, he personally chastised himself to the media making me think he will have an uptick in performance if not a crucial 12-14 to put the heat over the top. So I do have more from the bench and Chalmers in this game. Again this favors the heat ML.

Now onto 2). Although Leonard won't be all-world again, he has clearly woken up. After 9 and 9 in the first two games, he had 29. He won't have 29 again but he will have more than 9. How much more? That's going to determine this cover because we know the spurs bench will be there too. We know this, it will be more than 9 and that is crucial.

So for me, i do not like laying the 5.

This game 4 seems very similar to game 4 last year. The spurs blew out the heat in game 3 last year, like this year, 113-77 and then lost the next game at home 109-93. There was even the 'non-big 3' step up player in game 3 last year like Leonard this year: Danny Green had 27.

But I did notice something about game 4 last year. It was tied at the half. Like game 2 this year (after air-condition gate), Miami should have blown the doors off the spurs in game 2 and the spurs came to play. They should have done the same in game 4 last year but again Miami was flatter than expected.

Add this all up and you see chinks in Miami's armor that aren't there at first sight.

For me, the spurs are done with the "OKC towel throwing" they pulled last series to go after game 5, so if they can win this game, you are 100% correct about point 7).

So I see the Spurs and pop possibly realizing this is really the game 7 they are seeking. If they lose it, it will go  a real 7 and they will have to win a nail-biter against the best player in the world and two time defending champs, just like last year where they faltered. Who wants that?

I don't like betting on this game because I like the Miami ML (poor payout in comparison to the spread) and I do not like the spread as I see SA going for it and Miami has been a little flatter than I expected in game 2, and horrendous in game 3.

I just don't like this spot like we both did in game two with the Miami ML. 

The refs are just so tough to fade so I'm glad in a way, I can't bet this game. 

A stat on your side,:

Heat are 29-15 in last 44 after a straight up loss.

A small lean to the Spurs +5 for me as I do see the 5 playing a role. But if the heat win and cover I will in no way be surprised, will congratulate you on the win and I'll see ya at 7 game for the mother load of all series bets that I will not hedge!

Pop has to go Into that locker room tonight and say, we won game 1 and 3 last year and lost the series because we let them get square with us. We won game 1 and 3 this year. We should do everything possible to beat them in game 4. They'll have to beat the refs too unfortunately. But they are getting 5 which is a small but significant cushion for a team that goes for it when few

expect them too.

If they are smart.

And luckily, this is the smartest team in the league, and probably of of the major professional sports.

Pop will remind them of what happened in the last game 4 and the embarrassment they suffered in OKC and won't want to let it happen again IMO. So you get them gunning for the win and points as a cushion and that creates a lean.

Scal, didn't know you knew Hockey. Wish I did, then I would have asked you about that series:( I know it was a bad beat, but you got three more shots at it, no? Regarding game 4, I really think you are overreading (or overcaping) here; I know cause I do it often myself. It's our tendency to try to account for every possible angle but I think this one much easier than you are making it out to be. The biggest problem for me, with what you say, is that this is not game 7 (for SA), and coaches can try to pull every possible psychological ploy to get their teams to respond as if it was game 7 but that only gets you so far. The players and coaches will use their minds to trick their bodies into thinking it is game 7 but in their heart they will know it is just a ploy and that they have a nice cushion to play with. Meanwhile, for Miami, this is virtually a game 7, so there will be no need to trick their bodies into thinking it is. Every muscle and fiber in their body (including the heart) will be going all out in this one. I'm not worried about how Miami came out in game 2, because they were probably thinking they should have won game one, if LBJ didn't leave the game. And if Wade has a decent game, they win that game rather easily (IMO). Now they come home for game 3, and they relax a bit, while SA turns into the Globetrotters for the 1st half. Meanwhile, Leonard goes off for the 1st time because the refs decided not to handcuff him with fouls, but who is to say they won't do that tonight, in a must win game for Miami and the league. If Miami has a blowout win in them, it is this game, and this game only!

Yeah, but all he needs is to see a couple of shots go in, and we just need him for this one night. Good luck with your play, though.

Overthinking? Possibly. I do not get the 'feeling' I usually get when capping games with confidence with this pick (nothing like I had with Miami in game 2 which was a done deal after air condition-gate).

But you have to remember something about game 1: yes Miami very likely would have won but then you and I would have both been on SA in game 2, and we would have won as the spurs simply would not go down 0-2 at home. So we really are right where we should be: 2-1 Spurs.

That puts the pressure back on Miami and how has Miami responded to pressure from the Spurs? I see the Spurs going for the kill several times and Miami squeaking out some wins.

Game 1 Last Year - Spurs win up 1-0

How did Miami respond in Game 2, a must win at home? They were tied late in the 3rd and Miami went on a 33-5 run to end it. I don't want to discount 33-5 runs but that was yet another "throw in the towel game" and pop will not do that again this playoffs. He did it vs. OKC in game 4 and that is his one and only "towel game". That get-em-next-time mentality can't be recycled. Use it. One and done. So for me, Spurs go all out tonight.

Now let's compare this year's game 1 and 2.

Spurs win again (albeit an aided win).

How did Miami respond in game 2? This one went right to the final buzzer in what really was a must win vs. a team seeking title revenge. And that was with all the LBJ criticism we discussed would take us home.

So the Spurs went to stick the knife in, in both game 2's and came up short twice, albeit, just short the second time.

Now let's look at Game 3 and 4 last year.

Game 3: Spurs destroy the Heat a dog up 2-1.

Big bounce back game for the Heat to respond right?

As stated previously, in Game 4, another must win for the Heat, they were tied at the half and only up 5 at the end of 3 and needed another 4th quarter pull away to win it. That is a bit alarming for Miami and again, shows the Spurs went for it.

This year?

Spurs crush them in game 3 yet again.

Game 4: do the spurs allow for the same script to play itself out yet again? Yes they have to beat the refs tonight too but the Heat's age and spare parts (chalmers, bench) are showing their holes.

And if you look at last year in game 5 and 6, the Heat squeaked it out yet again in game 6 after another Spurs series leading victory in game 5.

Game 6: everyone remembers Ray Allen and his 3 correct?

What they forget are two key contributions Chalmers scored TWENTY in that game and they BARELY won with a miracle 3.

He is giving you NOTHING this year. While he may get 10 or 11 or 12 tonight, will it be enough??? I don't see it especially when Maimi is laying a fairly hefty 5 points.

What else is missing?

The name had been thrown around a lot here on this board.

Mike Miller.

He was inserted into Game 4 through Game 7. He spaced the floor and had the every crucial 'sockless 3' which kept them in game 6.

No more floor spacing and the Spurs are deeper this year.

In summation, what do we see?

We see a Spurs team really trying to stick the knife in Miami when they are up 1 game in these last two finals appearance and Miami is:

1) not winning with authority like the Spurs do in must wins

Or

2) winning with a miracle.

It's too much. Playing with fire will get you burnt.

The spurs are 13 deep. The heat amnesty miller, a player they would LOVE to have right now, and keep putting themselves on the brink, down one game, continually depending on everyone who isn't stepping up to come through next game.

Sometimes the fat lady will sing on you even if you have your fingers in your ears. I feel the Spurs, the smartest team in the NBA will eventually make you pay for this and are fully aware of it.

With +5 given the history, I gotta lean Spurs tonight.

PS (I only cap the Rangers so you won't see me much in the NHL forum, especially because it aligns with the NBA season which I focus on).

If you have a spurs series bet and it's good that you do, your are wise to sit tight and not fool with these games.

Chalmers will HAVE to step up tonight and he will give you more...but will it be enough...and more importantly, will it be enough over 5 if you back the heat?

The Spurs brought extreme offensive effort last game. the ball was humming around all over the place. That game will flatten them some over teh course of game 4. Spurs Strength is there tremendously precise offense. 

The heat on teh other hand are a much slower paced team but rely primarily on gut wrenching defense. Their defense might not be as strong as it was from the previous year but the DNA is still there and I expect it to show up tonight. 

Aside from the lack of intensity there were clear cut fundemental game planning break downs. Miami will make adjustments. Pop has an older team. I expect the spurs to come out super strong but they will subconsciously fade (maybe even conciously). He will not want to drop the hammer this game and risk his team getting "burned out". GAME 5 IS A MUST WIN FOR THE SPURS. AN ABSOLUTE MUST. Whether they are tied 2-2 or up 3-1. ITS A MUST. 

He will inevitably conceded this game to win the series. As i've said before, both coaches understand this will go 6 most likely 7 games. Pop will watch miami over adjust and use that for later when he does throw hammer down at Miami. I'm expecting a big response from Miami.... particularly Lebron and Wade..... expecting a double digit win. 

Spurs are not the older team. Spurs are 13 deep. Miami doesn't even have remotely close to that depth and that depth lowers their average age accordingly.

Miami is the oldest team in the league and the Clippers Nets and Mavs are all equal to or older than the Spurs.

Nice Sea World analogy.

I disagree. You don't play with the Spurs. Keep trying to pull it out late and you will pay. Of course, the refs will be on the Heat side so that is the one component I am wary of, as always. Give Duncan 2 early or 3 at the half and they will be toast. 

But still, over the long term, ya can't just amnesty players like MM and just win another championship. He spread the floor. Lewis is not as effective.

I do see this trend of going down in the series as a weakness and if not for a Leonard missed FT and Allen bomb, this could be the Spurs repeating against the Heat.

Even Lebron admitted they were lucky to win that game, and that was on their home floor too. No more 75% shooting halves but Leonard is going to contribute more and his contributions are vital in this series.