unders: as posted 1-0 two teams score the posted total (or more) for the first half, then score less than the posted total for the second half. the numbers are intended to be very favorable to the bettor, and therefore uncommon for games to qualify. -2 total 0-0 relaxes, by two points, the total the two teams have to score to qualify. -1.5 line 1-0 relaxes, by one and a half points, the second half total required to qualify. -2/-1.5 0-0 relaxes both, the total the two teams have to score, and the second half total required to qualify by two points and one and a half points, respectively. -4 total 0-0 relaxes, by four points, the total the two teams have to score to qualify. -2.5 line 1-0 relaxes, by two and a half points, the second half total required to qualify. -4/-2.5 0-0 relaxes both, the total the two teams have to score, and the second half total required to qualify by four points and two and a half points, respectively. casino 1-0 if the sportsbook's number meet this criteria.
overs: as posted 2-1 two teams score the posted total (or less) for the first half, then score more than the posted total for the second half. the numbers are intended to be very favorable to the bettor, and therefore uncommon for games to qualify. +2 total 0-0 relaxes, by two points, the total the two teams have to score to qualify. +1.5 line 2-1 relaxes, by one and a half points, the second half total required to qualify. +2/+1.5 0-0 relaxes both, the total the two teams have to score, and the second half total required to qualify by two points and one and a half points, respectively. +4 total 0-0 relaxes, by four points, the total the two teams have to score to qualify. +2.5 line 2-1 relaxes, by two and a half points, the second half total required to qualify. +4/+2.5 0-0 relaxes both, the total the two teams have to score, and the second half total required to qualify by four points and two and a half points, respectively. casino 0-0 if the sportsbook's number meet this criteria.
this system was created because of a conversation about "when is a number just too good to pass up." i don't believe in systems, they don't work (a topic for another time), so think of this more as an exercise in totals theory, and less as a totals system. i know the requirements to make a bet are going to be difficult to meet, that's kind of the point. There's no such thingas a "must-bet" wager, but these are (theoretically) very close. if your looking for an excuse to get your money in action, these bets, if there are any, will be better than most.
results from Wednesday, January 7th, 2015
there were four games that met the criteria, but only one that was bettable at the book.
if the total score from the first half of a game is... 8:30 lal/lac 112 ...or higher, and the second half line is... 8:30 lal/lac 105.5 or higher, bet the UNDER.
lal/lac scored 118 in the first half, and the second half line was 107. in the second half they scored 85, this results in: as posted win - scored less than 105.5 in the second half after scoring more than 112 in the first half -2 total not applicable, their 118 in the first half was more than the 110 needed to qualify for the -2 (from 112) to their first half total -1.5 line win - scored less than 104 in the second half after scoring more than 112 in the first half -2/-1.5 n/a, their 118 in the first half was more than the 110 needed to qualify for the -2 (from 112) to their first half total -4 total n/a, their 118 in the first half was more than the 108 needed to qualify for the -4 (from 112) to their first half total -2.5 line win - scored less than 103 in the second half after scoring more than 112 in the first half -4/-2.5 n/a, their 118 in the first half was more than the 108 needed to qualify for the -4 (from 112) to their first half total casino win - scored less than 107 in the second half after scoring more than 112 in the first half
[continued]
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
yesterday's post is here.
unders: as posted 1-0 two teams score the posted total (or more) for the first half, then score less than the posted total for the second half. the numbers are intended to be very favorable to the bettor, and therefore uncommon for games to qualify. -2 total 0-0 relaxes, by two points, the total the two teams have to score to qualify. -1.5 line 1-0 relaxes, by one and a half points, the second half total required to qualify. -2/-1.5 0-0 relaxes both, the total the two teams have to score, and the second half total required to qualify by two points and one and a half points, respectively. -4 total 0-0 relaxes, by four points, the total the two teams have to score to qualify. -2.5 line 1-0 relaxes, by two and a half points, the second half total required to qualify. -4/-2.5 0-0 relaxes both, the total the two teams have to score, and the second half total required to qualify by four points and two and a half points, respectively. casino 1-0 if the sportsbook's number meet this criteria.
overs: as posted 2-1 two teams score the posted total (or less) for the first half, then score more than the posted total for the second half. the numbers are intended to be very favorable to the bettor, and therefore uncommon for games to qualify. +2 total 0-0 relaxes, by two points, the total the two teams have to score to qualify. +1.5 line 2-1 relaxes, by one and a half points, the second half total required to qualify. +2/+1.5 0-0 relaxes both, the total the two teams have to score, and the second half total required to qualify by two points and one and a half points, respectively. +4 total 0-0 relaxes, by four points, the total the two teams have to score to qualify. +2.5 line 2-1 relaxes, by two and a half points, the second half total required to qualify. +4/+2.5 0-0 relaxes both, the total the two teams have to score, and the second half total required to qualify by four points and two and a half points, respectively. casino 0-0 if the sportsbook's number meet this criteria.
this system was created because of a conversation about "when is a number just too good to pass up." i don't believe in systems, they don't work (a topic for another time), so think of this more as an exercise in totals theory, and less as a totals system. i know the requirements to make a bet are going to be difficult to meet, that's kind of the point. There's no such thingas a "must-bet" wager, but these are (theoretically) very close. if your looking for an excuse to get your money in action, these bets, if there are any, will be better than most.
results from Wednesday, January 7th, 2015
there were four games that met the criteria, but only one that was bettable at the book.
if the total score from the first half of a game is... 8:30 lal/lac 112 ...or higher, and the second half line is... 8:30 lal/lac 105.5 or higher, bet the UNDER.
lal/lac scored 118 in the first half, and the second half line was 107. in the second half they scored 85, this results in: as posted win - scored less than 105.5 in the second half after scoring more than 112 in the first half -2 total not applicable, their 118 in the first half was more than the 110 needed to qualify for the -2 (from 112) to their first half total -1.5 line win - scored less than 104 in the second half after scoring more than 112 in the first half -2/-1.5 n/a, their 118 in the first half was more than the 110 needed to qualify for the -2 (from 112) to their first half total -4 total n/a, their 118 in the first half was more than the 108 needed to qualify for the -4 (from 112) to their first half total -2.5 line win - scored less than 103 in the second half after scoring more than 112 in the first half -4/-2.5 n/a, their 118 in the first half was more than the 108 needed to qualify for the -4 (from 112) to their first half total casino win - scored less than 107 in the second half after scoring more than 112 in the first half
if the total score from the first half of a game is... 5:30 bos/bkn 81 6pm uta/chi 84 7pm orl/den 82 ...or lower, and the second half line is... 5:30 bos/bkn 92 6pm uta/chi 95.5 7pm orl/den 93 or lower, bet the OVER.
bos/bkn scored 79 in the first half, and the second half line was 102.5. in the second half they scored 91, this results in: as posted loss - scored less than 92 in the second half after scoring less than 81 in the first half +2 total not applicable, their 79 in the first half was less than the 83 needed to qualify for the +2 (from 81) to their first half total +1.5 line loss - scored less than 93.5 in the second half after scoring less than 81 in the first half +2/+1.5 n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 83 needed to qualify for the +2 (from 81) to their first half total +4 total n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 85 needed to qualify for the +4 (from 81) to their first half total +2.5 line loss - scored less than 94.5 in the second half after scoring less than 81 in the first half +4/+2.5 n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 85 needed to qualify for the +4 (from 81) to their first half total casino n/a, the casino line of 102.5 was higher than the maximum of 92, but a wager on the over would have lost
uta/chi scored 68 in the first half, and the second half line was 99. in the second half they scored 106, this results in: as posted win - scored more than 95.5 in the second half after scoring less than 84 in the first half +2 total not applicable, their 68 in the first half was less than the 86 needed to qualify for the +2 (from 84) to their first half total +1.5 line win - scored more than 97 in the second half after scoring less than 84 in the first half +2/+1.5 n/a, their 68 in the first half was less than the 86 needed to qualify for the +2 (from 84) to their first half total +4 total n/a, their 68 in the first half was less than the 88 needed to qualify for the +4 (from 84) to their first half total +2.5 line win - scored more than 98 in the second half after scoring less than 84 in the first half +4/+2.5 n/a, their 68 in the first half was less than the 88 needed to qualify for the +4 (from 84) to their first half total casino n/a, the casino line of 99 was higher than the maximum of 95.5, but a wager on the over would have won
orl/den scored 79 in the first half, and the second half line was 102. in the second half they scored 104, this results in: as posted win - scored more than 93 in the second half after scoring less than 82 in the first half +2 total not applicable, their 79 in the first half was less than the 84 needed to qualify for the +2 (from 82) to their first half total +1.5 line win - scored more than 94.5 in the second half after scoring less than 82 in the first half +2/+1.5 n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 84 needed to qualify for the +2 (from 82) to their first half total +4 total n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 86 needed to qualify for the +4 (from 82) to their first half total +2.5 line win - scored more than 95.5 in the second half after scoring less than 82 in the first half +4/+2.5 n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 86 needed to qualify for the +4 (from 82) to their first half total casino n/a, the casino line of 102 was higher than the maximum of 93, but a wager on the over would have won
*please note that i am using William Hill for my 2nd half lines (when available)
i am going to keep track of fourteen W/L records, the overs and the unders will be separate, and they will have [the same] seven categories each. those categories are: -all numbers as posted -teams scoring within 2 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line -teams scoring within the posted total, and the posted 2nd-half line is relaxed 1.5 points -both, teams scoring within 2 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line is relaxed 1.5 points -teams scoring within 4 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line -teams scoring within the posted total, and the posted 2nd-half line is relaxed 2.5 points -both, teams scoring within 4 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line is relaxed 2.5 points
i am also keeping an unofficial tally of casino W/L so you can have a side-by-side comparison of performance versus actual wagers.
now for Thursday, January 8th, 2015
if the total score from the first half of a game is... 5:30 cha/tor 216 6pm hou/nyk 208 8:30 mia/por 206 ...or higher, and the second half line is... 5:30 cha/tor 104.5 6pm hou/nyk 100.5 8:30 mia/por 100 or higher, bet the UNDER.
if the total score from the first half of a game is... 5:30 cha/tor 174 6pm hou/nyk 169 8:30 mia/por 176 ...or lower, and the second half line is... 5:30 cha/tor 93 6pm hou/nyk 90 8:30 mia/por 93.5 or lower, bet the OVER.
-ixorv-
0
if the total score from the first half of a game is... 5:30 bos/bkn 81 6pm uta/chi 84 7pm orl/den 82 ...or lower, and the second half line is... 5:30 bos/bkn 92 6pm uta/chi 95.5 7pm orl/den 93 or lower, bet the OVER.
bos/bkn scored 79 in the first half, and the second half line was 102.5. in the second half they scored 91, this results in: as posted loss - scored less than 92 in the second half after scoring less than 81 in the first half +2 total not applicable, their 79 in the first half was less than the 83 needed to qualify for the +2 (from 81) to their first half total +1.5 line loss - scored less than 93.5 in the second half after scoring less than 81 in the first half +2/+1.5 n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 83 needed to qualify for the +2 (from 81) to their first half total +4 total n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 85 needed to qualify for the +4 (from 81) to their first half total +2.5 line loss - scored less than 94.5 in the second half after scoring less than 81 in the first half +4/+2.5 n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 85 needed to qualify for the +4 (from 81) to their first half total casino n/a, the casino line of 102.5 was higher than the maximum of 92, but a wager on the over would have lost
uta/chi scored 68 in the first half, and the second half line was 99. in the second half they scored 106, this results in: as posted win - scored more than 95.5 in the second half after scoring less than 84 in the first half +2 total not applicable, their 68 in the first half was less than the 86 needed to qualify for the +2 (from 84) to their first half total +1.5 line win - scored more than 97 in the second half after scoring less than 84 in the first half +2/+1.5 n/a, their 68 in the first half was less than the 86 needed to qualify for the +2 (from 84) to their first half total +4 total n/a, their 68 in the first half was less than the 88 needed to qualify for the +4 (from 84) to their first half total +2.5 line win - scored more than 98 in the second half after scoring less than 84 in the first half +4/+2.5 n/a, their 68 in the first half was less than the 88 needed to qualify for the +4 (from 84) to their first half total casino n/a, the casino line of 99 was higher than the maximum of 95.5, but a wager on the over would have won
orl/den scored 79 in the first half, and the second half line was 102. in the second half they scored 104, this results in: as posted win - scored more than 93 in the second half after scoring less than 82 in the first half +2 total not applicable, their 79 in the first half was less than the 84 needed to qualify for the +2 (from 82) to their first half total +1.5 line win - scored more than 94.5 in the second half after scoring less than 82 in the first half +2/+1.5 n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 84 needed to qualify for the +2 (from 82) to their first half total +4 total n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 86 needed to qualify for the +4 (from 82) to their first half total +2.5 line win - scored more than 95.5 in the second half after scoring less than 82 in the first half +4/+2.5 n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 86 needed to qualify for the +4 (from 82) to their first half total casino n/a, the casino line of 102 was higher than the maximum of 93, but a wager on the over would have won
*please note that i am using William Hill for my 2nd half lines (when available)
i am going to keep track of fourteen W/L records, the overs and the unders will be separate, and they will have [the same] seven categories each. those categories are: -all numbers as posted -teams scoring within 2 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line -teams scoring within the posted total, and the posted 2nd-half line is relaxed 1.5 points -both, teams scoring within 2 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line is relaxed 1.5 points -teams scoring within 4 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line -teams scoring within the posted total, and the posted 2nd-half line is relaxed 2.5 points -both, teams scoring within 4 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line is relaxed 2.5 points
i am also keeping an unofficial tally of casino W/L so you can have a side-by-side comparison of performance versus actual wagers.
now for Thursday, January 8th, 2015
if the total score from the first half of a game is... 5:30 cha/tor 216 6pm hou/nyk 208 8:30 mia/por 206 ...or higher, and the second half line is... 5:30 cha/tor 104.5 6pm hou/nyk 100.5 8:30 mia/por 100 or higher, bet the UNDER.
if the total score from the first half of a game is... 5:30 cha/tor 174 6pm hou/nyk 169 8:30 mia/por 176 ...or lower, and the second half line is... 5:30 cha/tor 93 6pm hou/nyk 90 8:30 mia/por 93.5 or lower, bet the OVER.
it was pointed out in my TL;DR post that my numbers were obviously wrong, here are the corrected numbers for today...
numbers for Thursday, January 8th, 2015
if the total score from the first half of a game is... 5:30 cha/tor 111 6pm hou/nyk 107 8:30 mia/por 106 ...or higher, and the second half line is... 5:30 cha/tor 104.5 6pm hou/nyk 100.5 8:30 mia/por 100 or higher, bet the UNDER.
if the total score from the first half of a game is... 5:30 cha/tor 81 6pm hou/nyk 79 8:30 mia/por 82 ...or lower, and the second half line is... 5:30 cha/tor 93 6pm hou/nyk 90 8:30 mia/por 93.5 or lower, bet the OVER.
-ixorv-
0
it was pointed out in my TL;DR post that my numbers were obviously wrong, here are the corrected numbers for today...
numbers for Thursday, January 8th, 2015
if the total score from the first half of a game is... 5:30 cha/tor 111 6pm hou/nyk 107 8:30 mia/por 106 ...or higher, and the second half line is... 5:30 cha/tor 104.5 6pm hou/nyk 100.5 8:30 mia/por 100 or higher, bet the UNDER.
if the total score from the first half of a game is... 5:30 cha/tor 81 6pm hou/nyk 79 8:30 mia/por 82 ...or lower, and the second half line is... 5:30 cha/tor 93 6pm hou/nyk 90 8:30 mia/por 93.5 or lower, bet the OVER.
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