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Bear's Friday woop-di-hoops

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Posted: #1
YTD ATS 3-8-1

DAMN! Well it's more fun to improve from this than to landslide from 8-3. Also noticed I'm too lazy to upkeep yearlong so looking to post plays day by day.

First real write ups and thoughts about games.

Wolves -3, 2.2U, Minny has been more than decent so far this season beating Nets/Detroit both by 6 and only loosing by 1 and 4 to fairly superior defensive Bulls & Grizzlies. Team is moving the ball well with Rubio taking a role there and against weak Orlando Wolves should be able to grab 8-12 pts win.

Boston -4.5, 2,2U, This Celtics team is totally different from what we've seen in near past. Now with Rondo back they move the ball and Olynyk has actually grown from scared college kid he was last season to decent center. Boston has always been strong and against injury riddled Pacers team this might be their 1st blowout win for the season. 

DEN/CLE U208, 2.2U, What is this line ? Teams who both avg <100pts vs poor defensive teams I have no idea what's up with this line so I'll be happy to bash the money in. Cleveland has to step up both offensively and defensively and Denver can't take a chance at run-and-gun game vs them. 

More coming up, stay tuned 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
EDIT: Boston has always been strong at home
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by Bearbetting:

EDIT: Boston has always been strong at home

Bear I would be very careful of Celtics tomorrow. Personally I think Pacers will keep this game very close. Do you rank the Wizards stronger at home than the Celtics? I do..Pacers were able to take it to OT vs the Wizards last game on a B2B (Wizards on B2B as well) and now both Celtics and Pacers have had 2 days rest. Pacers are missing a lot of players as well all know but regardless, the Celtics just havent been clicking defensively. Vogel knows how to slow the pace down and play boring ball, where as Brad Stevens never has full control of his team. They are very sporadic over the course of a game, so are the Pacers but i think the Pacers can lock down on D.. Without statement about the Celtics being strong at home, I have to disagree. Last season they had the 6th worst home record in the entire league, going just 16-25 at home. Yes the Pacers are missing West, Hill and George but Vogel and the Pacers have won the past 2 in Boston and cleaned up the series 4-0 last season. Vogel knows how to play this Boston team, regardless of his players on the roster. I think they keep it closer than a lot of people think. 

And BTW, the Wizards were 22-19 SU at home last season so if an injury depleted Pacers team can match it with the Wiz kids who IMO have a lot better scoring options than Boston do, then I think it will be a close game..

BOL
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by AussieDownUnder:


Bear I would be very careful of Celtics tomorrow. Personally I think Pacers will keep this game very close. Do you rank the Wizards stronger at home than the Celtics? I do..Pacers were able to take it to OT vs the Wizards last game on a B2B (Wizards on B2B as well) and now both Celtics and Pacers have had 2 days rest. Pacers are missing a lot of players as well all know but regardless, the Celtics just havent been clicking defensively. Vogel knows how to slow the pace down and play boring ball, where as Brad Stevens never has full control of his team. They are very sporadic over the course of a game, so are the Pacers but i think the Pacers can lock down on D.. Without statement about the Celtics being strong at home, I have to disagree. Last season they had the 6th worst home record in the entire league, going just 16-25 at home. Yes the Pacers are missing West, Hill and George but Vogel and the Pacers have won the past 2 in Boston and cleaned up the series 4-0 last season. Vogel knows how to play this Boston team, regardless of his players on the roster. I think they keep it closer than a lot of people think. 

And BTW, the Wizards were 22-19 SU at home last season so if an injury depleted Pacers team can match it with the Wiz kids who IMO have a lot better scoring options than Boston do, then I think it will be a close game..

BOL

Agree partially - Wizards being stronger defensive team at home. However making any assumptions regarding this game based on last year's statistics or teams feels silly imo.

1st off Pacers is not the same team as last year, not even closeby - they're missing Stephenson, George, Hill and Stuckey aka their offensive punch. No way Sloan is gonna burst into 30+ pts everygame as he did vs those Wizards leaving Copeland as their only viable scoring option. 

2nd Boston might not be Wizards defensively but let's look at something else here - their offense where these Celtics through start of the season have bolstered pts made/game from 26th of association to 2nd, offensive rating from 27th up to 7th and pace ranking up from 93 to 98.. That does not look like a team that we would've been talking about a year ago and definitely not a team that's as easy to slow down - just look at their game, it's totally different from that slumbering sloth they were last year. Defensively they're not the likes of GSW or Bulls and won't be but this Pacers team is not the Pacers team that bolstered best defensive rating and least points against / 100 poss, infact they're not even close to that and Boston will have plenty of chances to break that Pacers defense up while Pacers won't just have the offensive power for this match up - even against Boston's defense.
 
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Posted: #5
@Aussie I agree the Celtics are not a perfect team, not even close. Still imo they're worth a bet here, more so against Pacers than anyone else - it's not just a win but instead a revenge factor and "we can do this" for not being able to beat them since July 2013. 

Added plays

Grizzlies -6.5 & O183.5, 1.1U both, Memphis has been terrific so far this season taking down some of the more defensively heavy teams and OKC w/o RW & KD can't be counted as offensive force either. Gasol & Co is in good shape, healthy and hungry so I'm looking this as 10-12 point showmatch for them in 102-88 range.

Kings 1st H +3, 1.1U, Kings have been extremely strong so far this season and Cousins has been straighout beastly. Both teams should match beginning of game quite evenly and looking this to be 1-2 pt lead for either after 1st half. 

Cavs 1st H -2, 1.1U, Cavs have had strong starts throughout all of their 4 games and Nuggets are just plain bad. Cleveland with 2 straight losses definitely looking to tie it up this game and like notified previously Nuggets can't just play the run-and-gun-see-who-wins-game with these Cavs, they just can't. 

That's all for myself and feeling confident, BOL guys 
 
 
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Joined: Sep, 2007
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Posted: #6
I'm also confused by why the Cle/Den over under is so high. I'm even more confused by why it's been climbing all day. Opened at 206 and now it's at 210.5?? I must be missing something... 
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