Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
130 - 89 @ 59% for +32.1 Units
Wed, 03/30
Charlotte Bobcats -9.5
This game boils down to 2 things for me: Bobcats are 1 game out of the 8th and final playoff spot and Cavs are coming off a really emotional and draining win against the Heat last night. We have to remember that the Cavs are 5-30 SU (15-18 ATS) on the road this year, 6-12 ATS on b2b (7-19 ATS last 28 b2b’s), and 2-7 ATS after a SU win (1-4 ATS after a blow-out win). Cavs are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, while Charlotte had a day off and this is their 3rd straight home game. Cats are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 against teams with a losing record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus Cleveland (including 2-0 this year).
All these trends are solid, but this play comes down to the fact that Cleveland won at home last night against the Heat. That was their ‘Super Bowl’ and the players, the coaches, and the fans were really amped for that one. Today, comes a major ‘let-down’ spot for them. It’s hard for a bad team to maintain this level of intensity in consecutive games, especially if they are on a b2b, with the 2nd one being on the road. The Cats are clawing for a playoff spot and yesterday’s result should ensure that they’re completely focused on Cleveland tonight. I like Bobcats in a blow-out in this one.
Miami Heat -12
Two factors in this one: Wizards are coming off a long West-coast trip while Miami just got spanked by the worst team in the league last night. Washington actually won their last game of the trip, @ Utah, and then had to take a long cross-country flight back home. This team is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this year and this one is going to be a tough one for Washington, even with a high spread like this. Miami has to be upset after getting beat at Cleveland last night, and they have a perfect opponent to take it out on. Wizards are allowing 112 ppg and 48% shooting to their opponents in their last 5 games. Prior to beating the Nets at home (everyone is beating up on the Nets these days, especially without DWill), the Wizards lost 3 straight home games by an average margin of 22.3 ppg. (Bucks 95-76; Clips 122-101; Thunder 116-89). Now they face an ‘angry’ Heat squad that will be looking for a blow-out victory in this one. Washington is decimated with injuries and I don’t see anyone being able to match up with LeWade tonight. I expect a 20+ win for the Heat in this one.
Memphis Grizzlies -10.5
I "faded" the Warriors last night, and missed. Well, I’m going to do it again tonight. Warriors are 2-7 ATS now in their last 9 road games (were 1-7 ATS last night prior to the Thunder game) and this team has been getting blown-out in these situations recently. Tonight is a 2nd of a b2b road game and 3rd game in 4 nights for them. They’re coming off a hard-fought OT loss to the Thunder, and a ‘let-down’ is to be expected here. Grizzlies are playing hard in order to hold on to the 8th spot in the West and tonight should be no different. These teams have split the previous 2 meetings this year so the Grizz cannot overlook this team. In addition, Houston’s win last night moves them within 2 games of Memphis, thus this game is even more important. Either way, I don’t expect the Warriors to play as well as they did last night, as the Grizz will be able to control the boards and create a number of turnovers (they’re #1 in TOV% in the league) in this one. Grizz win this one by 16+ tonight.
130 - 89 @ 59% for +32.1 Units
Wed, 03/30
Charlotte Bobcats -9.5
This game boils down to 2 things for me: Bobcats are 1 game out of the 8th and final playoff spot and Cavs are coming off a really emotional and draining win against the Heat last night. We have to remember that the Cavs are 5-30 SU (15-18 ATS) on the road this year, 6-12 ATS on b2b (7-19 ATS last 28 b2b’s), and 2-7 ATS after a SU win (1-4 ATS after a blow-out win). Cavs are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, while Charlotte had a day off and this is their 3rd straight home game. Cats are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 against teams with a losing record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus Cleveland (including 2-0 this year).
All these trends are solid, but this play comes down to the fact that Cleveland won at home last night against the Heat. That was their ‘Super Bowl’ and the players, the coaches, and the fans were really amped for that one. Today, comes a major ‘let-down’ spot for them. It’s hard for a bad team to maintain this level of intensity in consecutive games, especially if they are on a b2b, with the 2nd one being on the road. The Cats are clawing for a playoff spot and yesterday’s result should ensure that they’re completely focused on Cleveland tonight. I like Bobcats in a blow-out in this one.
Miami Heat -12
Two factors in this one: Wizards are coming off a long West-coast trip while Miami just got spanked by the worst team in the league last night. Washington actually won their last game of the trip, @ Utah, and then had to take a long cross-country flight back home. This team is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this year and this one is going to be a tough one for Washington, even with a high spread like this. Miami has to be upset after getting beat at Cleveland last night, and they have a perfect opponent to take it out on. Wizards are allowing 112 ppg and 48% shooting to their opponents in their last 5 games. Prior to beating the Nets at home (everyone is beating up on the Nets these days, especially without DWill), the Wizards lost 3 straight home games by an average margin of 22.3 ppg. (Bucks 95-76; Clips 122-101; Thunder 116-89). Now they face an ‘angry’ Heat squad that will be looking for a blow-out victory in this one. Washington is decimated with injuries and I don’t see anyone being able to match up with LeWade tonight. I expect a 20+ win for the Heat in this one.
Memphis Grizzlies -10.5
I "faded" the Warriors last night, and missed. Well, I’m going to do it again tonight. Warriors are 2-7 ATS now in their last 9 road games (were 1-7 ATS last night prior to the Thunder game) and this team has been getting blown-out in these situations recently. Tonight is a 2nd of a b2b road game and 3rd game in 4 nights for them. They’re coming off a hard-fought OT loss to the Thunder, and a ‘let-down’ is to be expected here. Grizzlies are playing hard in order to hold on to the 8th spot in the West and tonight should be no different. These teams have split the previous 2 meetings this year so the Grizz cannot overlook this team. In addition, Houston’s win last night moves them within 2 games of Memphis, thus this game is even more important. Either way, I don’t expect the Warriors to play as well as they did last night, as the Grizz will be able to control the boards and create a number of turnovers (they’re #1 in TOV% in the league) in this one. Grizz win this one by 16+ tonight.
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Good luck sir bodio!
hey king Bodio well i played all 5 plays...i hope we do good today.....chalky chalky day brother......weird party is im not owrried because you are a genius at analytics and youve figured this shit out.....
BODIO
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