Brad Stevens ML +185 $2200 to win $4070 (+ Huge write up)

Alright guys, here we are. Game 6 in Milwaukee, where no road team has won yet. 

The Pick: Celtics ML $2,200 to win $4070 / Under $550 to win $500

Why: 

First off, I like how the public isnt hammering the celtics. Id be a little weary if they were getting a ton of love. Nearly every post ive seen on here has bucks -5, which is just crazy to me. Having said all that, the playoffs is all about coaching. If you havent noticed that then you probably just dont know what youre watching. Stevens is on another planet than my CPA, sorry i mean joe prunty. Stevens getting Marcus Smart back is huge. He can play man to man vs anyone on the bucks but also helps his teammates incredibly. Also his secondary ball handling skills really help the offense. Yes, his lack of a shot especially coming back from a torn ligament hurts but im not even sure prunty will make the necessary adjustments in order to render him less effective and even if he does stevens is always a move ahead of him. The celtics won last game with Jayson Tatum essentially being a ghost. Finished with 8 points. That wont happen again. Hes too good and skilled to let that happen. Only took 7 shots. Seriously just wont happen again. Also Semi Ojeleye is a great defender on giannis and gives them some good minutes while being able to hit 3's decent enough to where you cant just leave him. Thats important. Bucks backers will scream "Giannis only took 10 shots!" and sure he may take more this game but that may not necessarily be a good thing. They started blitzing PnR's where giannis was the screener (bucks trying to get him on a smaller defender) and it was really effective in preventing a mismatch. Also, i dont trust the bucks role players at all. At all. Eric bledsoe is terrible and i mean terrible. Hes the worst defender on the court at all times, hes an awful decision maker, and cant shoot all that well. Yet, prunty keeps going to him. Makes no sense. Brogdon has hit some big shots but man he has this terrible knack of dribbling 3 times before he passes. seriously its awful. Snell cant hit a shot to save his life, jabari is a corpse on the floor. The only help that Giannis has had is from middleton (love his game) but Marcus smart is the perfect chess piece to move onto middleton. Guys coaching is as important as anything in the playoffs and Brad Stevens is a top 3 coach, he has been a step ahead of Prunty at every corner while prunty has exhausted just about every move he can or knows how to do. I fully expect this to be a close game but at these odds (+185) is just way too much value. The celtics will win this game and the under will hit which usually goes hand in hand when you back a dog. Always gamble smart and responsibly and good luck to anyone who tails and to anyone who fades may god have mercy on your soul. Lol.

U got me. On it

Thon Maker has been playing out of his mind at home. I think he'll be the X Factor for this game if the Bucks want to win.

I have no dog in the fight, but I wish you best of luck.

You lost me at "Jabari is a corpse on the floor".  Clearly we are not watching the same series.

Also, Tatum disappeared quite literally because he was bumped from the finishing rotation.  He came out with 9 minutes left i the 4th and didn't return.

Frankly, you're just coming across as biased, agaisnt the Bucks and you're not being rational at all.  Jabari didn't play much in the first 2 games because Henson was getting the minutes, those games are irrelevant.  In games 3 and 5 ... games that, according to you, Parker was "absolutelty awful", Parker averaged 17 points and 6.5 rebounds off the bench on 52% shooting.  So what in the hell are you talking about when you say "he hasn't shot well"?  Parker is clearly one of if not the bright spot for the Bucks this series.  We're talking about a guy who averaged 20 points a game last year and is finally looking healthy.

I guess this is what the fish respond to, long write-ups with absolutely zero statistical analysis.

OP, so you like the Celtics at +185?  Would you take them at +180?  +170?  Where it the cutoff?  I'm willing to bet you are just guessing and have no idea what the line should be.

I think it's cute how you contradicting yourself in your own post.  Yes, the Bucks did more small lineups and got Parker extra minutes when Henson went down.

I watched all the games, I'm a professional sports bettor who just so happened to make money betting Jabari Parker over 11.5/12.5 points each of the last 2 games.

This is extremely entertaining. I side with the celtics though. Plus money on a game that should be a pickem. I'll take it