Bucks vs Heat Series

I know I am looking past the Bucks and Magic, but let's be realistic, they need to win 1 of the next 3 games.  I do think they struggle in game 5 of the series and think Magic +14 is another easy bet.  A lot of why will be explained in this thread about why the Bucks will lose to the Heat.

So let's be realistic in that the Bucks have the deepest team in the NBA.  They have 12 players that could possibly start on other NBA teams.  The problem is that the entire team is built around shooting 3 pointers.  Here is the most important reason why they will lose.  Not because of the theory live and die by the 3 but because of the way they do it.  Robin Lopez is 7 feet tall that can shoot a 3.  Great but what he needs to be doing is posting up down low and occasionally shooting a 3 pointer.  Same with Giannis.  Every time they try to drive to the hole from the top of the 3 point line, they are either being called for an offensive foul or turning over the ball.  Always happens.  Second, by not posting down low, when another team member takes a 3, they have no one trying to get an offensive rebound.  Lopez always avoids rebounding when he is on the 3 point line.  

The Bucks revolve around Giannis and Robin.  When the team is most effective is when they post up.  If not this team is the easiest team to defend.  Now one of the strategies to spreading out is that cutters are wide open.  The problem is no one on the team is cutting.  Giannis would cut but most of the time he is the one with the ball in his hands looking for a cutter.  This team is so one dimensional that they are easy to defend.  

Miami has studs but no one player is more important than the other.  The biggest weapon they have is Coach Spoelstra.  He is smart but more important is that he can make adjustments.  Making adjustments in the NBA is a gift.  He also has all of the players buying into what he wants them to do.  On the other hand, the Bucks coach looks lost and confused and is always drinking his water.  Isn't that usually a tell in Poker?  I will be on Miami every game in this series and expecting them to win this series and meet Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals.  Good luck everyone.

Idk about Magic +14, Bucks looking to finish it. Bucks roll in this one, similar to Raptors/Nets. Be careful.

Im taking Bucks 1st Q/Half & Game.

Agree with you on bucks Miami, think Miami wins it in 6 but bucks roll today, 140-110

Stop. You're going to bet on Miami every game? Lol when does one team win or cover every game... It doesn't happen and certainly a 1 seed isnt getting swept.

Sweeping a 5th seed missing an All Star has you all in your feelings LMFAO the Bucks are the top seed and have the MVP it's not even anywhere near close to a similar opponent. Bucks can do everything the Pacers can't, top of the league in points per game, can hit 3s, great defense, their bigs can shoot from deep.

You're wasting good money betting the Heat in this series. A team with a rookie PG that has the league lead in blown leads lol.

Can I be your bookie please? I'll give you an extra 10% on the series bet, np.

The Bucks dont have the deepest team, hahah their back-up players lost to the G League Nets and they also lost to the Grizz... The Bucks are garbage besides a few players.. Miami is not beating the Bucks... The Bucks will lose to the Lakers in 5 games in the Finals... They are already building up the storyline... Giannis was DPOY over AD, he will be MVP over LBJ but he will lose to those 2 in the Finals..

Miami also loves launching 3’s with Herro and Robinson... I don’t think we’ve really seen Milwaukee play hard all 4 quarters yet. Seems like they’re going 100% 1-2 quarters of their games. 

Milwaukee I think takes Miami in 4-5 games. Their biggest challenge will be Boston. I think The Celts can take the Bucks to 7.  

Bucks height about to be real problem for Heat shooters who looked good against a poor Indy perimeter defense. Long misses = transition basketball for Bucks where they're good. Also, you gotta wonder how hurt Butler is if he sat out for end of Indy game....turns out you need a shoulder to play bball.  Heat will take 2...Bucks taking this series.

I respect everyone's opinion.  I am not looking for an "I told you so" moment.  I just see that the Bucks have problems that they are not fixing. 

Do you think Orlando lost game 4 by a blowout?  They lost because they missed wide-open shots at the end of the game.  You make your shots you're supposed to make and it's a different game.  A guy like Fultz is ripping this team apart.  Yes, the Bucks have size and height but that goes to my point.  They are not using it to there advantage both on offense and on defense. 

If the Bucks can make adjustments then I could see the Bucks beating the Heat but the issue is they don't.  They have come out and played the same style of play all 4 games against the Magic and will do so again tonight.  They are a 1-dimensional team that is easy to figure out.  

BOL if you guys decide to play the Bucks.  BTW do you know Lebron is the last player to win regular-season MVP and the NBA Championship back in 2012?  In fact, only 14 players have accomplished this.  I love betting against those that win an award.  Didn't work out this past one but I make it a habit to bet against the Heisman Trophy winner and Cy-Young winner of that year in playoffs and championships.  Now we got league MVP who will always be an overvalued favorite every game is just crazy.

I certainly won't play a series bet on the Bucks at favorite odds though and don't think this is a run away, but I see them pulling this out.  There is value in Heat play so, take it! I'll be waiting for game spreads myself...

Curry won MVP in 2015 and the title

Yep, Bucks will win in 5 or 6 games, and Bucks will have a winning ATS record when it's all over.

Bucks the far better team.

Yep, Bucks will win in 5 or 6 games, and Bucks will have a winning ATS record when it's all over.

Bucks the far better team.

Yeah first of all you're wrong as had been pointed out Curry was MVP and won the chip.

But regardless you weren't talking about the finals, you were saying they won't get out of the 2nd round, and that's just daft.

Heat plus big ML every game and plus 8-10 points each game will be a huge value.  Oh sorry, I missed Curry in 2015 but please understand the point.  MVP tag is creating large lines for the Bucks.  It's funny seeing everyone back the Bucks because they have the #1 record prior to the bubble, with the league MVP and DPY.

I commend the Bucks players for the decision to boycott today's game.  I hope they're being heard and the leaders in their community will begin to make a change.  I support them in this and hope for better!

Granted even if MVP's don't win the title, Bucks beating Heat does not constitute a title win.  Bucks could still lose in next round or finals and not win title but beat the Heat easily.

Not sure where your getting your info, in some cases winning awards does give you value going against those winning the award, but not in the NBA.

2019 Freak won MVP and Bucks went 10-5 ATS 

2018 Harden went 9-8 ATS

2017 Westbrook went 3-2 ATS

2016 Curry went 14-10 ATS

2015 Curry went 12-9 ATS

All 5 teams with the MVP finished playoffs with a winning ATS record

Between the 5 teams they finished with winning ATS record in 11 of 15 series.  The reason being generally the MVP winner plays on a very, very good team, as team record is important to voters, so only the best player on the best of teams generally wins the MVP. It's not the best of idea's to bet against the very good teams with  at least one great player. Your not going to keep a very good team down for an entire series, they are going to have some strong moments and games.

Your better off picking spots for both the Bucks and the Heat.

2020 Bucks are 3-1 ATS

It seems your reaching very hard to find something that just simply is not there.

Thank you Claw for the input.  Facts have been shared and now we will have to see how this plays out.  After the series is over, rather than any of us having an I told you so mement, let's have a breakdown analysis so that we can better prepare for the Eastern Conference Finals.

Not to nitpick but LeBron also won a ring and MVP in 2013 as well besides 2012      But if you look at the Heat vs Bucks series I'm not a fan of Coach Bud but I would probably pick the Bucks to win vs the Heat but it might be a good series..  I mean in game 1 of the playoffs Coach Bud plays Giannis 32 minutes vs the Magic after he load manages His minutes during the regular season ? He likes to play too many players in the playoffs and doesn't shorten the rotation enough.. And of course he needs to play Giannis more  so will see what happens 

Heat fan here ...

Heat know how to slow Giannis the most out of all the NBA teams .  The problem is when he dishes the ball out will his shooters make the shot . Middleton hasn’t been playing up to par lately . Bucks also have BIG guys , and we have no answer for Lopez .  

I would love for the heat to win the series but I see it going 4-3 bucks ... could be some good value on Heat as ML dogs 

Lopez and Giannis would have to post up in order to be able to dish it out.  From everything I have watched this series they don't post up.  They have been way to emotional these last 2-3 days to even worry about a game plan.  Just watch you will find Lopez 90% of the time in the corner waiting for the ball to shoot a 3 pointer and Giannis will be top of the 3 point line 90% of the time waiting for the ball to try and drive to the whole 30 feet rather than posting down low.  They are a 1-dimensional team that is easy to defend.  The one advantage is that the Bucks are good 3 point shooters when open.  We will see if the Magic can play just some decent, not perfect just decent defense and rebound.  If so this 13 point spread, that was 14.5  a couple of days ago, should be an easy cover.

I like Heat also I’m going get the series , beside each game I got Celtics to win east Little long shot 9-1 

Going into the playoffs the Bucks looked like they were stumbling in, likely just do to rust and acclimated to new setting. Also as #1 seed teams were playing them hard to measure their own readiness for the playoffs.

The gm 1 Orlando game caused some concern for the club but the way they have responded you can't ask for much more. They have covered large spreads and outright dominated.

Orlando showed flaws in their game and the reason they had a losing record in the season. They were missing everything for long stretches with plenty of open 3s and players stopped using their teammates to try and carry it themselves ending it turnovers and dead possessions. Aaron Gordon missing is huge to keep Giannis out of the paint. If Orlando made their open 3's had Aaron Gordon defending the series would be competitive but its not a surprise to anyone this series is over.

I'd like to look more into Miami but I don't feel this is the series they beat the bucks. The Bucks are rolling and now have a social justice cause they are using for motivation.

If Miami can bully Giannis, get under his skin, play the Jordan Rules and Bam can match Lopez we will have a series. Personally I would like to see Giannis roughed up a bit in the paint.

I am very surprised by this low of a line but it is what it is:

Game 1

Heat +5.5 and +200 ML

ML bet is half the size of +5.5 bet

The Bucks by design protect the rim and give up open 3 point shots so the Heat have to make their open 3 point shots. I think this series goes 6 or 7 but let's see what happens tonight ..

will the heat be rusty after a week off ? 

that is da question 

Does any1 know if butler is back to 100% with that lil shoulder injury he got in last game of the pacers series? he wasnt even able to shoot for the rest of the game wen he returned back into the game he was jus a decoy and out there for defense i think this is a big deal to know for tonights game...