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A Moment of silence for the fallen who have protected our country so we can live and enjoy our freedom! 
3-0 (+15u) last night - 6-1 last 7 - making out pretty well. I figure anything over 60% for the playoffs is solid - no matter who you are. Having a good feeling right now - hope i'm right.
On to tonight... I look at this one and I think - do you get a Lakers team who has been slow to start and seems to be expressing the physicality of this series yet they continue to win the close ones? Or are the Nuggets, the team who has started strong but faded late only to lose 2 out of the last 3 in poor execution in the final minutes? IMO - this NUGGETS team is loaded with talent, yet it hasn't reached its full potential in the playoffs. I'm a believer that if Billups has a GREAT game - the Nuggets usually cover. I think the Nuggets realize that if they lose Game 4 - it's going to be tough to come back to the Pepsi Center in a Game 6 even though the Nuggets have proven they can win on the Lakers court.
If anyone thinks that the Nuggets are out of it - think again. Despite going for 21pts in Game 3, Melo only scored 3pts in the 2nd HALF, which was a complete let down to his team. Look for Melo to take his shot early and often. WE all know he can score at will - and i think he'll do just that!! Melo will rebound and will play like a kid in the gym by himself. The fans will be rockin' out!!! Each member of the Nuggets roster realizes that they MUST win this game. Challenge is if it will be a 1pt win or a 10pt win. IMO - this is a statement game. I rode the gravy train till it de-railed - however, the Nuggets are at home, they have a lot of talent, and it's a must win.
Key Stats to measure for your bet from Game 3 in Denver -
- Game 3 4Q Denver outscored by LAL 32-18
> Play 48 min Denver and you will win and cover!!! The Nuggets shot a measly 5-for-27 on 3-pointers
- Melo scored 3pts and fouled out in 2H of Game 3 loss
>Melo has to get off early and keep shooting - no more slumps and take it to the glass everytime vs. jump shots.
- Denver shot 18% from 3pt to 31% for the LAL
> JR, Billups, and Melo need to step up from the perimeter and play better perimeter defense - Ariza, Kobe, and Fisher have shot the 3-ball well due to no shot pressure
- LAL 46% FG to 39% for Denver
> Need to play better defense on Kobe and company and stop settling for jump shots. DRIVE IT - DRIVE IT - DRIVE IT
- Denver +9 Fast break points
> Goes to show that if Denver can run - they will score a plus differential here... Everyone saw elderly Odem get yelled at by Jackson for not husslling back on defense. "It's not that i didn't hussle coach - that fucker was fast!!!" Transition baskets key to Denver success
- Denver +6 Rebounds
> Amazing with the LAL height advantage - Denver owns the rebounding category - shows that altheticsm can out-weigh height
- Mental Errors - T-fouls and turnovers
> I wasn't the only one who was feeling JR's three (and emotion) when he hit that 3 over Vujacic to end the 1H. Denver needs that emotion and fire (minus the technical foul) for the full 48min and they will win and cover...
- Denver missed its first nine shots of the fourth quarter, finally putting a shot through the hoop on Martin's dunk with 6:34 left in the 4Qtr
> Just play Nuggets basketball and close out the game.
- ****DENVER LED 3 QTRS IN GAME 3***** This just means that Denver needs to close out games in this series to cover and win!!!
> Foucs, Focus, Focus - Denver closed out the 4qt in Game 2 26-22 to win in LA. It can be done!
- Play Ariza tighter - he keeps shooting solid from the field and 3pt land (Game 1 - 20% FG, 20% 3pt, 50% FT), Game 2 (46% FG, 100% 3pt, 75% FT). Game 3 (38% FG, 37% 3pt, and 75% FT)
Difference from Game 2 when Denver won 106-103 -
- LA 46% FG to DEN 39%
- Points in the Paint 52 to 38 (+14 for Denver)
- Fast break pts +5 for Denver(10) vs. LA(5)
- LA Bench pts (15) to Denver's (29) - (+14 for Denver)
CRISIS GAME for DENVER - LAL 1-2 in the series ATS - don't buy the hype!!! Denver should be up 2-1 but that's the breaks.. Cash Cow Demver gets mooing again!!! Denver comes out loose and excited - Prediction: Melo with 35+, Billups with 20+, and JR with 15+, Nene with 10+, and Martin with 10+/10Rb...Mark it down.
PREDICTION: DENVER 108 LAL 99
DENVER -4 (-120) (5 units) 
- DEN are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Pacific.
- DEN are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games
- DEN are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite
- Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
- Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest
DENVER -1.5 1Q (5 units)
.GL2U
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Playoff ATS Record:40-20 (66%)(+155 U)
*Moneylines: 0-1 (-1 unit) **(0%)**
*Parlay's: 2-4 (+55 units) **(33%)**
*Teasers: 3-3 (+0 units) **(50%)**
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