Quote Originally Posted by GH16:
I had to create an account so I could post on this. Been gambling for a lot of years and I will be betting Boston +16.5 on principle. I usually just do player props but this is an investment opportunity.
Scalabrine-great write up, all situations I look for
Regular season player stats don't mean anything in the playoffs. I remember my barber telling me how Isaiah was gonna give the Cavs trouble two years ago in the first rd and I laughed. Same crowd here if you think that Isaiah is a top 15 player in this league. Bottom line is the guy is a midget and doesn't get the duck in for contact calls on the road anyways. Avg 8 ppg less on the road in playoffs than regular season. You're also half a step to a step closer on rotations since he's so damn small.
Last point is people are on here saying Brad Stevens can't coach?! He's one of the top 5 in the NBA. To get this group to where they are is remarkable. This is the best I've ever seen Horford play. Crowder and Bradley should be bench players but he's made them better. He'll have them motivated and where it needs to show up is on the glass.
Rosier and Smart will pack enough punch to be competitive. Don't think the Celtics will try to muck it up with some scuffles but their play does the talking tonight. If Thomas was playing, I'd take the first half on a spread of 14 at 7.5-8 but it might take some time for the Celtics to get comfortable on offense.
100% agree with the angle that the public can't get this fat without regressing to the norm. All these 75% public plays can't keep hitting with this volume of action. I weighted this way too much betting CBB in the 15-16 season instead of just trying to pick winners but 16.5 is insane.
Thanks for the post GH. Great points.
To your point about Thomas being a 'midget'.
While I don't promote the slang for being short, it is a valid point.
Colin Cowherd on his radio show (a square, but an intelligent one and the best listen on the radio when it comes to capping, again however square, he has some insightful commentary) was breaking down this series and he said something that struck me:
"When do you see 'small' players dominate the NBA?"
"When do you see them with rings?"
"When do you feel they are dominating the league?"
His point was that the more talented, more experienced teams, bigger sized teams eventually overpower the 'smaller dominant player' (Curry as an exception as he is a once in a lifetime talent from the outside) that drives inside, that is, teams were finding ways to overcome IT and his scoring. And the Cavs were.
Many here will respond with 'IVERSON!' And yes he was dominant per se. But with how many shots per game? People don't realize Larry Brown BUILT that team around him, assembling the perfect pieces to get them to the finals where they were CRUSHED by the more dominant, bigger Lakers team.
Now we remove Thomas from the floor (And he wasn't the same player since his teeth go knocked out and as this poster noted, he wasn't the same in the playoffs either outside of the 53 point outburst, which was tied to the sister), and 'go big' per se, mix it up (and I trust Stevens to do so), and we can still hit a ton of threes with our big men. It's a nice change of pace. We get a different formula today the Cavs haven't seen.
Again, the Cavs can DOMINATE them, win by 14 and we WIN with the Celtics!!! Who here doesn't understand that? Apparently many!
A RECORD-SETTING Spread NEVER to be seen again in a decade, or DECADES, and you have posters here chirping 16/18/20 ...doesn't matter.
WOW.
The thread title is apropos because I've never seen so many people revert to a full-blown Square Seduction laying this gargantuan number!