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Conf Finals thoughts and referee assignments

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Captain
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Posted: #51
Stay in your own lane, don’t bring drama to other threads. Or is that what you’re trying to do?
 
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Posted: #52
I think this is a rare situation where you have to look at last year's playoff results more than this season regardless of personnel changes.
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Posted: #53
I hate this site, not going to rewrite that whole post. Long story short, history shows Cavs are in a great spot to score, ref crew possibilities (Foster, Capers), Boston trendencies when they lose and Cavs playoff ppg output

Cavs TT over 105.5 (10 bets)
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Posted: #54

 
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Posted: #55
I was gonna say Foster if they get Foster it’s cavs for me Foster is like lebrons buddy I’ve never seen him more buddy buddy with any other ref then Foster 
 
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Posted: #56

StraightWager.... 

I agree this site's posting capabilities are lacking, however, You don't need to retype the whole thing.. 

 

you can copy and paste if u wanna...for example..

I was gonna say Foster if they get Foster it’s cavs for me Foster is like lebrons buddy I’ve never seen him more buddy buddy with any other ref then Foster 

 

ANYwayyy...

I'm looking forward to your ref/gm analysis for this weekend!!  Best o'Luck!!

 
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Posted: #57
Straight Dub - whats going on amigo!!  Good luck on the CAvs game tomorrow, I'm with you.  Have them to win it all at 8/1 and 21/1 I got right before game 7 vs Pacers....

Are you or AussieDownUnder capping WNBA this season?  
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by Mananddogs:

StraightWager.... 

I agree this site's posting capabilities are lacking, however, You don't need to retype the whole thing.. 

Agreed. For long posts it is much safer to first write it in software like Notepad or Notepad++ and then copy-paste into the reply textbox.

 
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Posted: #59
thanks for the advice and nice to see some familiar faces

We got Capers/Tiven/Zarba which I think is beneficial as winning teams avg over 110ppg w/ these refs individually. This sets up well for G3 Hou/GS as we will most likely get Foster or Mauer (maybe even Callahan).

Best of luck today.

Cavs TT over 105.5 (10 bets)
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Posted: #60
Doesnt look good for home team ats. 2 out of 3 if we look at Tivens and Zarba. Perhaps Cavs will score that much to win but not get a cover
Sip on that plus money honey!
 
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Posted: #61
I think in this scenario you have to look at what does the winning team score with these refs DK, assuming Cavs win then you get a 110+pig avg and that’s good enough for me.
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Posted: #62
Capers/Tiven/Zarba/Williams, J (alt) G3 Celtics @ Cavs
  • these refs individually are 14-4 SU for Cavs at home last 2 season, 1 loss by OT
  • Cavs avg. 113ppg w/ these refs individually
  • winning team avg's 119ppg w/ these refs individually
  • last season Cavs avg'd 120ppg vs. Celtics in playoffs
  • this series has only had 37 and 33 FT in first 2 games
Stevens strikes me as a coach that realizes things can and do go south on the road in the playoffs witnessed by his team's 116-89 and 121-102 losses on the road at Washington last year so he's smart enough to circle the wagons, pull his starters, let the home team whoop it up and fight another game. This feels like that situation. If Cavs don't come out of the gates (and I kinda hope they don't) then I think we get a very good 2nd half Cavs TT opportunity. Regardless I see Cavs scoring 116+ in this one.
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Posted: #63
in anticipation that this 1st half goes under 100pt, which would make the 3rd consecutive under in this series 1st half, I believe we get a great opportunity for 2nd half over
        in 8 playoff games this ref crew's 2h scores:       107,109,139,120,88,103,95,113 for an avg of 109pts
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Posted: #64
  • in the 2 Celtic blowouts at Wash last year the 2h scores were 102 and 139, Capers was the ref in the 102 2h
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Posted: #65
over 107 2nd half (5 bets)
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Posted: #66
“He’s on Fire!” - NBA Jams Voice 

 
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Posted: #67
Nice call Wagers on the Cavs TT buddy 
 
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Posted: #68
Couple things to think about overnight
  • GS hasn't lost a home playoff game since 6/13/16  112-97 hosting Cavs w/ ref crew of Stafford/Davis/McCutchen, they were tied 61-61 at the half
  • before that at home hosting OKC 5/16/16 a 108-102 loss w/ the ref crew of Stafford/Washington/McCutchen, they were up 60-47 at the half
  • Last years playoff they did not lose at home but in the closest game beat Spurs 113-111 w/ a 71-49 2nd half comeback after Leonard went down w/ injury, the ref crew was Davis/Washington/Crawford
  • Cavs spoiled GS perfect postseason with a 137-116 win w/ a ref crew of Davis/Callahan/Goble
  • in their 2 losses this postseason to Spurs and Pels it was a Foster led ref crew
Point being, we are set for a ref crew of Foster, Davis, Callahan combo of some sort (Crawford and McCutchen are retired). To me this feels like the right spot for Hou to steal a win. I'd love to see Mauer as Hou is 6-0 w/ him and he allowed Clips and OKC to score 125pt each in wins at Oracle. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
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Posted: #69
Congrats SW you have been spot on.  
Sip on that plus money honey!
 
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Posted: #70
Davis/Corbin/Phillips/Spooner (alt) G3 Hou @ GS
  • this ref crew individually is 11-2 SU for Hou as the road team
I can find equally strong data for GS as a home team. To me this just seems like the right time for GS to lose 2 in a row. I really don't see that momentum that Hou captured in G2 just disappearing that quickly, this series has always felt like at some point Hou would be up and if they win this game they will be 2-1. Then all the drama is set as the talk will be Cavs are coming back to win that series and we have a barn burner of a series in Hou/GS, makes perfect sense to me.

The easiest or safest thing to think is GS returns to Oracle and instantly finds their mojo as they are undefeated at home and never lose 2 in a row yada yada. Davis is a great ref for Hou in this spot, Hou has shown road success recently and at one of the toughest venues in Utah winning twice. I like Hou to win this game even if they get down double digits at some point, it's time for GS to be shocked at home. Tempted to live bet Hou all game if they are down...

Hou +8 (10 bets)
Hou ML +290 (5 bets)

On another note, looks like it's setting up for Foster G4 Cs/Cavs.
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by StraightWagers:

Davis/Corbin/Phillips/Spooner (alt) G3 Hou @ GS
  • this ref crew individually is 11-2 SU for Hou as the road team
I can find equally strong data for GS as a home team. To me this just seems like the right time for GS to lose 2 in a row. I really don't see that momentum that Hou captured in G2 just disappearing that quickly, this series has always felt like at some point Hou would be up and if they win this game they will be 2-1. Then all the drama is set as the talk will be Cavs are coming back to win that series and we have a barn burner of a series in Hou/GS, makes perfect sense to me.

The easiest or safest thing to think is GS returns to Oracle and instantly finds their mojo as they are undefeated at home and never lose 2 in a row yada yada. Davis is a great ref for Hou in this spot, Hou has shown road success recently and at one of the toughest venues in Utah winning twice. I like Hou to win this game even if they get down double digits at some point, it's time for GS to be shocked at home. Tempted to live bet Hou all game if they are down...

Hou +8 (10 bets)
Hou ML +290 (5 bets)

On another note, looks like it's setting up for Foster G4 Cs/Cavs.

DAM love it...but saw AussieDownUnder on GSW....So torn!  Respect both of you guys.
 
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Posted: #72
Hou even 2nd half (5 bets)
over 111 (5 bets)

Pace is there, Hou missed 11 bunnies, I think Harden and CP3 will wake up also Bell and Looney have 3 fouls apiece so look for Hou to be aggressive. Hopefully this is a classic Hou comeback w/ referee Davis.
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Posted: #73
well took my shot w/ Hou and lost 25 bets, sucks didn't want to see GS cake walk into the Finals but guess that's what we get, bummer
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Posted: #74
Impossible to cap...
 
 
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Posted: #75
Man, you were so fixated on that script that Houston has to win. I can't comprehend how someone would think GS losses this game.
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