Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
95 - 70 @ 58% for +18.0 Units
Thur, 03/03
#1: UNDER 197 ORL/MIA
This is the 4th and final meeting of a regular season between the Heat and the Magic and I expect a high-intensity playoff atmosphere in this one. Miami is leading the season series 2-1 and even though I don’t think Magic can catch them in the division (4.5 games out) both teams will treat this one as a statement game.
Looking at Miami’s recent games, it seems this team has been playing ‘playoff-type’ games against playoff teams recently. Against the Knicks – UNDER, @ Chicago – UNDER, @ Boston – UNDER, @ Orlando – OVER….eh? Oh yeah, Orlando was the last game against a playoff team that went OVER. Speaking of that game, I went back and analyzed it in detail. First of all, through the first 3 quarters, that game was on pace for about 189 points. The 62-point explosion in the 4th was what made that one go OVER. Magic were down by 21 in that period and just got really hot in the 2nd half of the quarter, seemingly making every 3PT shot, and cutting the lead to 3, before finally losing 104-100. The posted total was 198 in that game, with the OVER hitting by 6 points. A few other things stood out in that one. First of all, Miami shot 50% from the field. This is after averaging 41% in the first 2 games against Orlando. Second of all, LeBron went off for 51 points in the game, almost twice his season average. This was the 9th 50+ game of his career and all of them came on the road. Tonight’s game is at home. Hmmm.. Third of all, both teams combined for only 21 turnovers in that meeting. Miami is middle-of-the-road team when it comes to TO’s, averaging 13.7 on the season, while Orlando is in the bottom 5 of the league, averaging 14.5 per game. Combined, both teams average 28.2 TO per game. More turnovers leads to less shot attempts, and therefore lower scoring games. I obviously expect a ‘regression to the mean’ to occur tonight. My point here, is that there were a number of factors that led to the OVER hitting in the previous meeting: an unusually high scoring 4th quarter, a rare 50+ performance by LeBron, and 25% less TO’s by both squads than they normally average. Even so, the # opened at 198.5 again and is currently at 197, with 60% on the OVER.
Statistically, both teams are top 6 defensive squads in the league: Orlando allowing 94.3 ppg compared to Miami’s 94.4 ppg on defense. Orlando has the #3 defensive rating while Miami is #4. At the same time, both of these squads are playing solid D right now. Orlando is allowing 94 ppg and only 39.4% FG% to their opponents in the last 5 games. Miami, in the same time-span, is allowing 97 ppg and 43% from the field. The O/U is 4-6 in those combined 10 games. I know I’ve talked about the fact that the O/U is 1-3 in Miami’s last 4 games against playoff teams, and it’s actually 2-5 in the last 7 facing a team with a winning record. O/U is 3-4 in the last 7 when Orlando is playing a team with a winning record. Long-term, O/U is 26-49 (65% UNDER) in the last 75 games, when the Magic have played a winning team in the 2nd half of the NBA season and 48-78 (62% UNDER) when facing a top offensive team scoring 100+ points per game. I know Orlando is on ‘revenge’ in this one, and the O/U is 7-10 in this scenario, 2-7 after they allow 105+ points in the previous game, and 4-7 when playing a divisional opponent.
I like how this game is setting up tonight. Both teams are rested (Miami 3 days off / Orlando 1) and ready to put forth max effort on the defensive end. There were clearly a number of anomalies in the last game between the 2 teams that caused that total to go OVER (by 6 points). I see those regressing to the normal today. I expect‘playoff intensity’ from both squads in this prime-time TNT matchup, as the UNDER has solid value in this one.
95 - 70 @ 58% for +18.0 Units
Thur, 03/03
#1: UNDER 197 ORL/MIA
This is the 4th and final meeting of a regular season between the Heat and the Magic and I expect a high-intensity playoff atmosphere in this one. Miami is leading the season series 2-1 and even though I don’t think Magic can catch them in the division (4.5 games out) both teams will treat this one as a statement game.
Looking at Miami’s recent games, it seems this team has been playing ‘playoff-type’ games against playoff teams recently. Against the Knicks – UNDER, @ Chicago – UNDER, @ Boston – UNDER, @ Orlando – OVER….eh? Oh yeah, Orlando was the last game against a playoff team that went OVER. Speaking of that game, I went back and analyzed it in detail. First of all, through the first 3 quarters, that game was on pace for about 189 points. The 62-point explosion in the 4th was what made that one go OVER. Magic were down by 21 in that period and just got really hot in the 2nd half of the quarter, seemingly making every 3PT shot, and cutting the lead to 3, before finally losing 104-100. The posted total was 198 in that game, with the OVER hitting by 6 points. A few other things stood out in that one. First of all, Miami shot 50% from the field. This is after averaging 41% in the first 2 games against Orlando. Second of all, LeBron went off for 51 points in the game, almost twice his season average. This was the 9th 50+ game of his career and all of them came on the road. Tonight’s game is at home. Hmmm.. Third of all, both teams combined for only 21 turnovers in that meeting. Miami is middle-of-the-road team when it comes to TO’s, averaging 13.7 on the season, while Orlando is in the bottom 5 of the league, averaging 14.5 per game. Combined, both teams average 28.2 TO per game. More turnovers leads to less shot attempts, and therefore lower scoring games. I obviously expect a ‘regression to the mean’ to occur tonight. My point here, is that there were a number of factors that led to the OVER hitting in the previous meeting: an unusually high scoring 4th quarter, a rare 50+ performance by LeBron, and 25% less TO’s by both squads than they normally average. Even so, the # opened at 198.5 again and is currently at 197, with 60% on the OVER.
Statistically, both teams are top 6 defensive squads in the league: Orlando allowing 94.3 ppg compared to Miami’s 94.4 ppg on defense. Orlando has the #3 defensive rating while Miami is #4. At the same time, both of these squads are playing solid D right now. Orlando is allowing 94 ppg and only 39.4% FG% to their opponents in the last 5 games. Miami, in the same time-span, is allowing 97 ppg and 43% from the field. The O/U is 4-6 in those combined 10 games. I know I’ve talked about the fact that the O/U is 1-3 in Miami’s last 4 games against playoff teams, and it’s actually 2-5 in the last 7 facing a team with a winning record. O/U is 3-4 in the last 7 when Orlando is playing a team with a winning record. Long-term, O/U is 26-49 (65% UNDER) in the last 75 games, when the Magic have played a winning team in the 2nd half of the NBA season and 48-78 (62% UNDER) when facing a top offensive team scoring 100+ points per game. I know Orlando is on ‘revenge’ in this one, and the O/U is 7-10 in this scenario, 2-7 after they allow 105+ points in the previous game, and 4-7 when playing a divisional opponent.
I like how this game is setting up tonight. Both teams are rested (Miami 3 days off / Orlando 1) and ready to put forth max effort on the defensive end. There were clearly a number of anomalies in the last game between the 2 teams that caused that total to go OVER (by 6 points). I see those regressing to the normal today. I expect‘playoff intensity’ from both squads in this prime-time TNT matchup, as the UNDER has solid value in this one.
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Riding with you tonight! 
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