All Forums | NBA Betting

Cos I'm TNT I'm dynomite.... TNT And I'll win tonight!

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 12858
Posts: 108
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 566
Posted: #76

Good to see that your picks are on the NBA contest.  Most of the prognosticaters come in here bragging about their win pct.

And for some reason they stay away from the contest page. Hmmm?

GL

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 766
Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

2010-2011 NBA Record:
95 - 70 @ 58% for +18.0 Units



Thur, 03/03

#1: UNDER 197 ORL/MIA

This is the 4th and final meeting of a regular season between the Heat and the Magic and I expect a high-intensity playoff atmosphere in this one. Miami is leading the season series 2-1 and even though I don’t think Magic can catch them in the division (4.5 games out) both teams will treat this one as a statement game.

Looking at Miami’s recent games, it seems this team has been playing ‘playoff-type’ games against playoff teams recently. Against the Knicks – UNDER, @ Chicago – UNDER, @ Boston – UNDER, @ Orlando – OVER….eh? Oh yeah, Orlando was the last game against a playoff team that went OVER. Speaking of that game, I went back and analyzed it in detail. First of all, through the first 3 quarters, that game was on pace for about 189 points. The 62-point explosion in the 4th was what made that one go OVER. Magic were down by 21 in that period and just got really hot in the 2nd half of the quarter, seemingly making every 3PT shot, and cutting the lead to 3, before finally losing 104-100. The posted total was 198 in that game, with the OVER hitting by 6 points. A few other things stood out in that one. First of all, Miami shot 50% from the field. This is after averaging 41% in the first 2 games against Orlando. Second of all, LeBron went off for 51 points in the game, almost twice his season average. This was the 9th 50+ game of his career and all of them came on the road. Tonight’s game is at home. Hmmm.. Third of all, both teams combined for only 21 turnovers in that meeting. Miami is middle-of-the-road team when it comes to TO’s, averaging 13.7 on the season, while Orlando is in the bottom 5 of the league, averaging 14.5 per game. Combined, both teams average 28.2 TO per game. More turnovers leads to less shot attempts, and therefore lower scoring games. I obviously expect a ‘regression to the mean’ to occur tonight. My point here, is that there were a number of factors that led to the OVER hitting in the previous meeting: an unusually high scoring 4th quarter, a rare 50+ performance by LeBron, and 25% less TO’s by both squads than they normally average. Even so, the # opened at 198.5 again and is currently at 197, with 60% on the OVER.

Statistically, both teams are top 6 defensive squads in the league: Orlando allowing 94.3 ppg compared to Miami’s 94.4 ppg on defense. Orlando has the #3 defensive rating while Miami is #4. At the same time, both of these squads are playing solid D right now. Orlando is allowing 94 ppg and only 39.4% FG% to their opponents in the last 5 games. Miami, in the same time-span, is allowing 97 ppg and 43% from the field. The O/U is 4-6 in those combined 10 games. I know I’ve talked about the fact that the O/U is 1-3 in Miami’s last 4 games against playoff teams, and it’s actually 2-5 in the last 7 facing a team with a winning record. O/U is 3-4 in the last 7 when Orlando is playing a team with a winning record. Long-term, O/U is 26-49 (65% UNDER) in the last 75 games, when the Magic have played a winning team in the 2nd half of the NBA season and 48-78 (62% UNDER) when facing a top offensive team scoring 100+ points per game. I know Orlando is on ‘revenge’ in this one, and the O/U is 7-10 in this scenario, 2-7 after they allow 105+ points in the previous game, and 4-7 when playing a divisional opponent.

I like how this game is setting up tonight. Both teams are rested (Miami 3 days off / Orlando 1) and ready to put forth max effort on the defensive end. There were clearly a number of anomalies in the last game between the 2 teams that caused that total to go OVER (by 6 points). I see those regressing to the normal today. I expect‘playoff intensity’ from both squads in this prime-time TNT matchup, as the UNDER has solid value in this one.

 


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2008
Posts: 1567
Posted: #78
...........Orlando U-197
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2008
Posts: 970
Posted: #79
WHOOOOOO

Nice call bodio
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 22
Posted: #80
good call BODIO!
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 619
Posted: #81

BODIO   BODIO   BODIO!!!  

Another great call buddy!

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 300
Posted: #82
Thanks Bodio for the play  Lets go Denver 2-0
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2010
Posts: 3890
Posted: #83
Afflalo brought it home When i saw you on Nuggz I had no doubt they get the job done. Oh I luv this game Stay perfect bruh
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


#1: UNDER 197 ORL/MIA
#2: Denver Nuggets +3.5


 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #85

Quote Originally Posted by stingercofc:

Not trying to be negative but your hitting at nearly 70 % a clip in ncaa, why do you keep spending time trying to cap this league which is so much harder? Just feel like theres more money to be made in cbb

I cap both, but my first love is NBA. 

Just didn't find anything I liked in CBB.  Was leaning Washington State but just couldn't pull the trigger..

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #86

Quote Originally Posted by wpkid:

Under is toasted!

hehe

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #87

Quote Originally Posted by Bigwaddbabacadd:

mia/orl und 

 

hehe #2

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by forkball:

Good to see that your picks are on the NBA contest.  Most of the prognosticaters come in here bragging about their win pct.

And for some reason they stay away from the contest page. Hmmm?

GL

 

Keep in mind, those aren't always my official/final picks.  I only play 'Ultimate Race' and 'Streak Survivor' and sometimes go in early in the morning to make my selections so that I won't forget later on.  Sometimes I choose those prior to even capping games (if I'm not really on a streak)...

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #89

Quote Originally Posted by livin2gamble:

Afflalo brought it home When i saw you on Nuggz I had no doubt they get the job done. Oh I luv this game Stay perfect bruh

 

Love Afflalo's game.  The guy is a really good player.  The whole Denver squad is really fun to watch....

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 143
Posted: #90
Great insight into the game. Didn't play much except 2H Den/Uta under but great write up. 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 727
Posted: #91
  , thanks for the picks , and ur lean for the side when I asked you on Orl/Heat game  . I ended up going 4-0 with Orlando and Under 210 in Nuggets 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2007
Posts: 339
Posted: #92
SWEEP NICE JOB
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 1447
Posted: #93
Nice job Bodio.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 22
Posted: #94
 ur    awesome man dont ever change  
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 4357
Posted: #95
goood job man!!! UNDER IS LOCK!
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 8897
Posted: #96
Here's to GETTIN IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 4357
Posted: #97
LEBRON is so clutch! wooohooo!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 1003
Posted: #98
congrats bodio
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 625
Posted: #99
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2009
Posts: 371
Posted: #100
Well Done!
All Forums | NBA Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.