DO NOT BUY POINTS IN BASKETBALL - Huge Statistical Data Write-up for Point Buying in Basketball

Here is the link to my post in College Basketball Forum, it works the same for NBA as it does in college basketball.  Click and give it a read...point buying is NOT beneficial to your bankroll!

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=101537899

Screw it, I'll RE-POST everything instead of just leave the link:

Allow me to show you why point buying is NOT worth it in college basketball.

To understand this, please understand that YOU ARE NOT A PSYCHIC and you can NOT ONLY PICK THE "GAMES WHERE POINT BUYING WILL MATTER".

People will claim this: "Point buying has made me money A LOT of the times that I have bought points."

A LOT of the time?!?!?  I think not (I will show you what percentage of games it will change the outcome of your push or loss)...again, you are not psychic and you do not pick the majority of games where the POINTS ACTUALLY MATTER.

Matter of fact, you are only donating money to your book.

Allow me to pull a sample of 1 whole day of college basketball games on the busiest day of the week, a Saturday.

I pulled the ATS points covered by off of VegasInsider.com because they were the most thorough in stats that I could find.

In this statistical date, basketball is scored on a linear graph where you can make points in increments of 1, 2, or 3 points (and some times 4 in rare cases) where as in football it is NOT linear where teams score in increments of MOSTLY 3 and 7 and in some cases 2 and very rare cases of 1 (as seen this year in the NFL).  Football is NOT linear and therefore is very difficult to put statistical data together as to whether point buying is beneficial or not to your bankroll....so A CASE COULD BE MADE THAT POINT BUYING IS WORTH IT IN FOOTBALL.

BUT HERE IS THE DATA IN BASKETBALL:

Saturday January 19th, 2013

111 games played
222 teams played
3 games pushed and ended at exact spread where ANY amount of point buying would have changed it from a push to a win, so 6 teams out of 222 (2.7% of bets/sides) where point buying would have won you money instead of just push
18 total games/teams where point buying Could Have changed whether you won or pushed on a game instead of LOST.

Here are the 22 games where a team covered by 3 points or less:

Younstown St @ UW-Milwaukee             PUSH
Elon @ Wofford                                     PUSH
Akron @ Kent                                       PUSH
Whichita St over Creighton                    +0.5
TX-El Paso over SMU                           +0.5
Providence over Villanova                      +0.5
Cal Poly SLO over Santa Barbara          +0.5
Iowa St. over TX Christian                     +1
Mich. St. over Ohio St.                         +1
Denver over utah St.                             +1
Colorado St. over UNLV                        +1
Pepperdine over Santa Clara                 +1
Davidson over Col. of Charleston           +1
Kansas St. over Oklahoma                   +1.5
Wake over VA Tech                             +2
SanFran over Loyola Maryland             +2
BYU over Sand Diego                          +2
Uconn over Pitt                                   +2.5
Central Florida over Houston                +2.5
Bowling Green over Buffalo                  +2.5
Troy over FL Int.                                 +3
Wright St. over Valparaiso                   +3

Buy 0.5 Points (-120) Win on the 3 games that pushed, so 6 teams that could have won instead of pushed...BUT you wouldn't bet on both teams in those games, so really it would only change the outcome from a push to a win in 3 bets, but I'll include the FULL 6 just to boost ALL THE PERCENTAGES HIGHER THAN THEY REALLY SHOULD BE...so technically any percentages that I spell out for you are HIGHER than they should be and should be 3 bets/teams shorter in the stats. Push on the 3 losers against the spread that DIDN'T cover by 0.5 points (Creighton, SMU, Santa Barbara, and Villanova). It would NOT have made a difference had you bought 0.5 points for the team that ALREADY covered the spread. So in conclusion of buying a half a point: Buying 0.5 points would have won you money instead of push 6 times out of 222 teams (really just 3 out of 222 because you wouldn't bet on both teams in 1 game, but I'll state again that I'm adding in the extra 3 games just for the "nay-sayers" benefit) or 2.7% of the time Buying 0.5 points would have allowed you to PUSH instead of LOSE (1.35% of the time) Now that you understand how I'm explaining buying points and the percentages, I'm just going to state the numbers for the rest of the 5 OTHER point buying scenarios: Buy 1 Point (-130) Win 10 bets (4.5%) Push 6 bets (2.7%) Buy 1.5 Points (-140) Win 16 bets (7.2%) Push 1 bet (0.45%) Buy 2 Points (-155) Win 17 bets (7.66%) Push 3 bets (1.35%) Buy 2.5 Points (-175) Win 20 bets (9%) Push 3 bets (1.35%) Buy 3 Points (-195) Win 23 bets (10.36%) Push 2 bets (0.9%)

So, in conclusion, if you buy 3 points in basketball, you are practically Winning only Half of what you bet or Losing Twice as much for a return of only 11.26% of the time it will even change the outcome of a loss or a push.

Also notice who the point buying is linear from 0.5 points to 3 points but the tax is NOT, they charge 20 cents of the dollar just to go from buying 2.5 points to 3!!!  If you buy points, YOUR BOOK LOVES YOU.

Buying points is just another way to make money off of you....think about it....if point buying was BENEFICIAL TO YOU, would the money hungry books and Vegas even give you the OPTION of buying points?!?!? Think about it.

HERE IS MY BIGGEST THOUGHTS ON BUYING POINTS:

IF YOU ARE BUYING POINTS:

#1....IT IS NOT A STRONG PLAY FOR YOU AND YOU HAVE NO BELIEF IN YOUR PICK

#2....IF YOU REGULARLY BUY 3 POINTS, YOU MAY WIN OR PUSH 11.26% MORE OF YOUR BETS, BUT THEN YOU ARE WINNING LESS MONEY OR LOSING MORE THE REST OF THE 88.74% OF YOUR BETS WHERE YOU BOUGHT 3 POINTS AND IT DIDN'T MATTER.

#3....YOUR BOOK AND VEGAS BOTH LOVE YOU AND IT IS NOT BENEFICIAL TO YOUR BANKROLL, IT ACTUALLY HURTS YOUR EARNINGS

#4....IF YOU ARE BUYING POINTS, YOU THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A CLOSE GAME ATS.....WHY ARE YOU BETTING ON SUCH A SHITTY PICK WHERE YOU ARE SCARED YOU ARE GOING TO LOSE UNLESS YOU BUY POINTS?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

#5.....ALL YOU ARE BUYING IS PIECE OF MIND SO THAT YOU DON'T SWEAT THE GAME OUT AS MUCH....THAT'S IT...THAT'S WHAT YOU ARE BUYING,....PIECE OF MIND AND LESS STRESS ON A SHITTY/WEAK PICK

I agree buying points is useless in basketball but I thought everybody knew that ......

nice post 

And I'll say it once more,...I DID include an extra 3 games in the stats, so the percentages are 3 games higher than they should be.

In the 3 games where they PUSHED on the actual spread, i should only have counted 3 teams/bets where buying the points would have made a push into a win because nobody is going to bet on BOTH TEAMS in the ONE GAME. So all percentages are higher than they really should be, but none the less, there WERE 6 teams in those 3 games that pushed, that COULD HAVE had points bought to make a push into a win.

What do you guys think of my statistical data on point buying?

Here is a thought for the people who think that there are "certain" games where it is beneficial to buy points:

Would anybody be willing to make picks in NBA basketball games buying 3 points?

I would do all the stats on it to show that buying 3 points is only going to change about 10-15% of the bets made while 85-90% of the time they are paying -195 odds where they Win Half of what they bet or lose Twice As Much money as they would have had he/she just taken the -110 line as is.

PICK THE GAMES WHERE 3 POINTS WILL MATTER

A few questions for point buyers:

1. Does buying points show how WEAK of a play you are placing your money on? I mean, why do you need to buy points if it IS A GOOD/STRONG PICK?

2. Do you feel "better" or have Less Anxiety after you Buy Points?

3. Does buying points give you Confidence?

exactly but im never shockd at the stupidity of many

Dumb to buy points, selling points on the other hand to get reduced juice is 

love this post on basketball, i know exactly why im buying .5 up to 3 pts in nfl, especially to get like lets say -2.5, +3.5, -5.5, +7.5, +10.5 and so on. but in basketball, i admit im clueless and i didnt find myself buying pts and u are right! for those reasons u listed, thankfully i have enough skill to win and im not a losing person. but now i know rarely do i buy basketball pts now. love the post!

Yeh, I definitely think a case COULD be made in football as the point values aren't in a linear line increments.  Obviously in football, buying around 3 and 7 COULD be beneficial, but I've looked into doing statistical data on it and it just got way too complex to even try and figure out, let a lone try to explain it to other people in a thread.

My "Point Buying is Bad" theory only applies to basketball for now.

good post.. however, i think you think you mean Peace of Mind, not Piece.

Thank you for the correction, my dumb*ss actually thought it WAS "Piece" of Mind....I guess I'm going to have to Google sayings I don't normally use before actually using them!

I do the opposithe thing since December and im up:

example:  YESTERDAY CHICAGO WAS -1.5 (1.90)

I bought to -2 (1.95) so I won that bet and cashed 5% more.

Another: SATURDAY GAME OKL/DENVER OVER 209 (1.90)

I bought to OVER 210 (1.98)

So I won that game and cashed 8% more

IN NBA IF YOU LIKE A GAME A LOT, DO THIS THING AND ATH THE END OF THE MONTH YOU WILL BE UP A LOT OF $$$

Ya know, I'm not quite sure on your point sir.  I don't counter to create an argument but rather to discuss and look Deeper into a thought.

SELLING POINTS would have the same linear graph opposite of the teams that could have BENEFITED from BUYING POINTS.

For the 3 games or the 6 teams that would have PUSHED on the regular spread, SELLING Any Amount of Points would have changed the outcome from a push to a loss.

Any team that Won by 1/2 a point ATS while you SOLD a 1/2 point would make not only the pushes to losses, but the teams that covered by 1/2 point change to a push instead of a win.

Also understand that books do NOT SELL at the same juice that they allow BUYING.  Buying starts at 10 cents for the first 1/2 point and can incrementally increase as you buy MORE points.

As an example from my book Right Now:

Michigan St. @ Wisconsin over is 123.

To sell up to over 123.5 is -103 and over 124 is +105.

The 1/2 point only Sells at 7 cents and the Sell 1 point sells at only 15 cents as most books allow BUYING at 10 cents per 1/2 point.

DONT BUY POINTS BUT NEVER UNDERESTIMATE HOOK.

someone link stevenp to this post.  he buys 3 points on every game he bets.

The unforseen SORRY on the "hook" is the 95% of the time you are WINNING LESS. 

People don't look at what they DIDN'T WIN WHEN THEY'VE ALREADY WON.

I always buy point to guarantee a winner. That is, if the spread is a whole number, I buy it so that its a half point difference. Another 10 bucks per 100 is fine by me.