Does anyone feel they are getting ripped off with this Heat/Bulls line???

Question

This is not a pick. Just a discussion about line adjustment.

Although not uniform, the standard line adjustment for a round 2 series is around 8.5 to 10 points when the other team goes home in game 3.

Look at the lines in the 3 other games:

Golden State opened at 7.5 and settled at 7 in game 2 and now the Spurs are +2.5 = 10 pt or 9.5 pt swing for GS home court.

Knicks were 6 pt favorites in game 2 and like clockwork they are 4 pt dogs at the Pacers for game 3 = 10 pt swing

Memphis was a 3.5 pt dog in game 1 and only a 2.5 pt dog for a must win in game 2 (the 3.5 pts for Memphis is more a realistic line) and now Memphis is a 5 pt. favorite which = 8.5 pt adjustment on the high end and at the extreme 7.5 from the 2.5.

But now look at the Heat line:

They opened at 12 and closed at a 12.5 point favorite in game 2 and now they are....a 7 point favorite???

That is an adjustment of 5 to 5.5!

Listen, I know it was a blowout, but let's be real, the bulls didn't even try in the 3rd and 4th quarters and conceded to get home 1-1 so disregard the biggest loss in franchise history talk.

I expect to pay a premium for Lebron and the reigning champs but I'm only getting a 5 pt adjustment from a standard of 9 to 10 (and at worst 7.5)? Go back and look at other years. It's not just these three games.

Even at the every bottom comparing Memphis at +2.5 to -5 which is 7.5 pt swing, the 5.5 swing from -12.5 to -7 for the Heat is a full two points. That to me is a ton of points making this line reek of a ripoff. Think about how much is costs to buy two full pts on a line!

Again, this is not a pick and I know lines are set by book judging public perception, I just feel that a 5/5.5 pt. adjustment for a 1/5 seed, with 5 seed that has proven time and time again it can win on guts alone and given that Rose can get back on the court (although that may not be a good thing IMO disrupting the offense that has thrived), 7 just seems to high for the Bulls returning home. I was expecting around 5 to 5.5 and I would consider that a premium for the Heat given it still doesn't touch an 8.5 pt. swing.

The bottom line is that I don't like taking lines where I know I am paying a huge premium just because the books can make you pay it for an elite team.

I know the Heat can easily come out and win by 20, but that is not the discussion here, just the premium we are paying to lay 7 when it should/could be adjusted more.

So the question is, do you feel this line is a rip-off at -7 given the aforementioned standard adjustments if you take the Heat?

scalabrine · Answer

This is not a pick. Just a discussion about line adjustment.

Although not uniform, the standard line adjustment for a round 2 series is around 8.5 to 10 points when the other team goes home in game 3.

Look at the lines in the 3 other games:

Golden State opened at 7.5 and settled at 7 in game 2 and now the Spurs are +2.5 = 10 pt or 9.5 pt swing for GS home court.

Knicks were 6 pt favorites in game 2 and like clockwork they are 4 pt dogs at the Pacers for game 3 = 10 pt swing

Memphis was a 3.5 pt dog in game 1 and only a 2.5 pt dog for a must win in game 2 (the 3.5 pts for Memphis is more a realistic line) and now Memphis is a 5 pt. favorite which = 8.5 pt adjustment on the high end and at the extreme 7.5 from the 2.5.

But now look at the Heat line:

They opened at 12 and closed at a 12.5 point favorite in game 2 and now they are....a 7 point favorite???

That is an adjustment of 5 to 5.5!

Listen, I know it was a blowout, but let's be real, the bulls didn't even try in the 3rd and 4th quarters and conceded to get home 1-1 so disregard the biggest loss in franchise history talk.

I expect to pay a premium for Lebron and the reigning champs but I'm only getting a 5 pt adjustment from a standard of 9 to 10 (and at worst 7.5)? Go back and look at other years. It's not just these three games.

Even at the every bottom comparing Memphis at +2.5 to -5 which is 7.5 pt swing, the 5.5 swing from -12.5 to -7 for the Heat is a full two points. That to me is a ton of points making this line reek of a ripoff. Think about how much is costs to buy two full pts on a line!

Again, this is not a pick and I know lines are set by book judging public perception, I just feel that a 5/5.5 pt. adjustment for a 1/5 seed, with 5 seed that has proven time and time again it can win on guts alone and given that Rose can get back on the court (although that may not be a good thing IMO disrupting the offense that has thrived), 7 just seems to high for the Bulls returning home. I was expecting around 5 to 5.5 and I would consider that a premium for the Heat given it still doesn't touch an 8.5 pt. swing.

The bottom line is that I don't like taking lines where I know I am paying a huge premium just because the books can make you pay it for an elite team.

I know the Heat can easily come out and win by 20, but that is not the discussion here, just the premium we are paying to lay 7 when it should/could be adjusted more.

So the question is, do you feel this line is a rip-off at -7 given the aforementioned standard adjustments if you take the Heat?

scalabrine · Answer

Conversely, if you are on the Bulls you are getting a significant bargain, but again, this is not about a pick. The books know the overwhelming majority of the public will be on the Heat and they have loaded up this line IMO.

depeche2 · Answer

FWIW Miami was -13 and -14 in Games 1 and 2 vs. Mil and then -7 then -9 in Games 3 and 4. So between 4 to 7 points differential. Basically the same as here.

How about the fact that Miami was the same -7 in Game 3 in Milwaukee against the Schmucks. The Bulls could be without their entire starting lineup and they'd still be tougher than the Schmucks. So the same -7 is silly.

Also same thing happened last year with the Heat. The H/R differential wasn't that great.

bob696969 · Answer

The opening line was -6.5, and conventional wisdom says "home court is worth 3 points"

Perhaps the books are saying -12.5 is too cheap of a price for the heat at home vs a depleted bulls team, now that the heat have "figured out how to play". bulls will be missing deng and hinrich again in game 3.

deng is likely gone for the series.

the question is, what will be the line in game 5 in miami? If the heat win and cover both games in chicago, could we see a line of -14 or -15 in game 5.

milky24 · Answer

Scal, I think GSW is the better play. Bulls come out hard after a tough loss, and I don&#x27;t really care if it&#x27;s Miami playing. They just have an amazing defense. If ever, i&#x27;d take the Bulls with the points. But i do prefer the later game, GSW own SA, they&#x27;re way better. Chicago will be a small play for me, but i&#x27;m going big for GSW in front of the best crowd in the NBA.

scalabrine · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Capodecina]  I guess your theory of 9.5 - 10 point "adjustment" goes out the window here in game 3.......&#xD;&#xA;The Heat are getting as much "action" at -7  or -7.5 as the Bulls backers are providing at &#x2B;7 or &#x2B;7.5 ......  As you know, Lines level off where the action coming in is close to 50% - 50% on each team.&#xD;&#xA;That number makes this game perhaps a good one to watch and jump in on LIVE-iN Game after you see who&#x27;s playing (Rose) and who&#x27;s not.  I&#x27;ll stick to Live-In Game for this one.  [/Quote]Uh, lines do not level off at 50/50 action..And saying that they are getting as much action is quoting what source? And what is the &#x27;action&#x27;? Money or bets?

scalabrine · Answer

Miami and Milwaukee are not in the same universe (with Milwaukee really not even being a true playoff team given the 9 and 10 seeds out west that could wreck them).That is why I specially said round 2. This is a 1-5 and the bulls are more than competent with a short handed lineup and showed it by taking game 1 outright.I understand this happened last year I just think the premium is too high for this round against this team (that already beat them outright).

scalabrine · Answer

I think the line for last game should have been about 15. Then the 7 would have made more sense.

scalabrine · Answer

I see your point but I get a little leery about depending too much on the crowd against the spurs (and GSW has the best one in the NBA in the playoffs). Spurs don&#x27;t get rattled like other teams.

m1sterbojangles · Answer

i know you said this thread wasn&#x27;t about the picks. But if you had to put all eggs in one basket, which would it be? Heat -7 or bulls &#x2B;7?I&#x27;m just really curious after reading all of this.

namethegame · Answer

easy answer to that one bojangle

aireent777 · Answer

This suggests a Heat blowout or a Bulls backdoor cover. Which is which?

tjohnsont · Answer

Uh, who cares.  Just give us your pick genius.

budwiser · Answer

The answer is pretty easy.They just beat the Bulls by 37 points.  They were up 40&#x2B; in what, the third quarter.They beat the living c rap out of Chicago and common sense tells you it won&#x27;t stop.  That&#x27;s why.

scalabrine · Answer

Well I couldn&#x27;t take the Bulls, I&#x27;ll say that. Not after the shi* they pulled last game, intentionally trying to rough up the Heat which served no purpose but to motivate them. I just don&#x27;t like the premium I&#x27;d have to pay.

scalabrine · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Capodecina]  &#xD;&#xA;Scal....I respect you immensely.....I said " Lines level off where the action coming in is close to 50% - 50% on each team.&#xD;&#xA;If too much money is coming in on one team, the line moves; fundamental Vegas stuff Bro&#x27;......  [/Quote]I respectfully disagree.That is true in theory, not practice.Sometimes books will not move off of key numbers like 3 in the NFL because they don&#x27;t want to take a bath on a rush of bets coming in on one side and then have the game be decided by a field goal, so they take in more action on a key numberZThink about it: A line for Monday Night opens at -6 and moves .5 pt in either direction. The line moves in response to the betting intake but .5 pt is not enough to sway a mass of bettors on that number (which is not key) to balance the action. The books start to take on action on one side if they believe it warrants the liability. 50/50 action is idea for the vig intakel and maybe possible (but largely improbable) on the aggreagrate for a slate of Sunday NFL games or on a random NBA night, but not really on individual games per se.Even at -7, I don&#x27;t believe the books will be getting equal Bulls action even with that premium I believe is in there. That is what bothers me with a Heat selection. The premium.

scalabrine · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Capodecina]  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Less SCIENCE and MATH....and more Gut feel....go with your Gut, or buy points, or Parlay the Heat in the Money Line with a Nice Baseball game like the Reds with Cingrani.....&#xD;&#xA;You&#x27;re getting too Scientific and Mathematical......Just Take the Heat in a ML Parlay with The Reds....  [/Quote]I&#x27;d tease then if anything to eliminate the books cushion..

tim1962 · Answer

TAKE THE UNDER AND MIAMI AT 4 POINT TEASER, MONEY

FeedMeCappers · Answer

im not sure how you can disregard the "biggest blowout in franchise history" talk... who cares if you think they werent trying.. do you think that is something that they are proud of? of just disregard because they think to themselves..."oh well we werent even trying so that doesnt count"... you know theyve heard it on espn and im sure thibodeu has used it to get these guys fired up. you cant ignore something like that... they got beat by nearly 40.......................................................................................................................................

40

dimndimn · Answer

but, doesn&#x27;t the next game start 0-0?

scalabrine · Answer

I don&#x27;t care if it was 400.You do disregard it because if you dwell on it and overvalue it, you only have one pick in this game and you make it without thinking (a losing bettor tendency...not the pick, the way you arrive at a pick).

scalabrine · Answer

Not sure. But by taking the heat you are paying a premium IMO.

dcowboys · Answer

You always pay a premium with the heat. The books aren&#39;t gonna make it easy. Just like when the pats were in their prime. You gotta to pay if you want to play!

thatsagoodone · Answer

Yes you are getting ripped off taking Miami and yes you are getting a bargain taking Chicago.

I think making Miami -4.5 or -5 today, that line would've gotten pounded by the public.

Open it at -7.5 and you get some hesitation. Don't books love hesitation? All the people that want to take Miami are thinking, crap man win by 8. That's a lot. On the other side, after watching Chicago get crushed by 40 is 8 enough? Doesn't feel very good getting 8.

The last game is the one everyone remembers.

Emotion aside, just logical thinking, my money would be on Chicago today. But I don't have to play it so I'll pass. See what halftime looks like.

door54 · Answer

Good thread, good posts, good read.&#xD;&#xA;When you get back to the basic rationale for a line, is it not about minimizing risk/exposure for the book? Granted there are formulas and rules of thumb (8.5-10pt swing) but isn&#x27;t it in the books best interest to lay down a line that best regulates sharp money while at the same time splits the public handle dead nuts to the dollar, granting the book  a full 10% hold?&#xD;&#xA;Furthermore, isnt it our primary task to find the error in a line and to take advantage of it?. In looking at line accuracy in Miami&#x27;s six playoff games, the line was relatively tight in game 2 vs. MIL... line was -14.5 margin of victory (mov) was 12.   And game 4 vs MIL mov was 11 vs a line of -8.5&#xD;&#xA;The above references indicate  the book has been &#x27;tight&#x27; only 33% of the time (2 of 6 games) on Miami.  The book knows Miami is a public favorite with a 5-1 record  vs the line, and Chicago has captured the nations eye with their play but are only sporting a 5-4 vs the line...some adjustments need to be made to balance the handle IMO

Does anyone feel they are getting ripped off with this Heat/Bulls line???

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