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Does anyone feel they are getting ripped off with this Heat/Bulls line???

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Posted: #26
I don't feel ripped off.  I feel like I've been given a gift.  Bulls +8 thank you very much.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by door54:

Good thread, good posts, good read.

When you get back to the basic rationale for a line, is it not about minimizing risk/exposure for the book? Granted there are formulas and rules of thumb (8.5-10pt swing) but isn't it in the books best interest to lay down a line that best regulates sharp money while at the same time splits the public handle dead nuts to the dollar, granting the book  a full 10% hold?

Furthermore, isnt it our primary task to find the error in a line and to take advantage of it?. In looking at line accuracy in Miami's six playoff games, the line was relatively tight in game 2 vs. MIL... line was -14.5 margin of victory (mov) was 12.   And game 4 vs MIL mov was 11 vs a line of -8.5

The above references indicate  the book has been 'tight' only 33% of the time (2 of 6 games) on Miami.  The book knows Miami is a public favorite with a 5-1 record  vs the line, and Chicago has captured the nations eye with their play but are only sporting a 5-4 vs the line...some adjustments need to be made to balance the handle IMO


Well said. Understood.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by thatsagoodone:

Yes you are getting ripped off taking Miami and yes you are getting a bargain taking Chicago.

I think making Miami -4.5 or -5 today, that line would've gotten pounded by the public.

Open it at -7.5 and you get some hesitation.  Don't books love hesitation?  All the people that want to take Miami are thinking, crap man win by 8.  That's a lot.  On the other side, after watching Chicago get crushed by 40 is 8 enough?  Doesn't feel very good getting 8. 

The last game is the one everyone remembers. 

Emotion aside, just logical thinking, my money would be on Chicago today.  But I don't have to play it so I'll pass.  See what halftime looks like.


 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by dcowboys:

You always pay a premium with the heat. The books aren't gonna make it easy. Just like when the pats were in their prime. You gotta to pay if you want to play!

True
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by depeche2:

I don't feel ripped off.  I feel like I've been given a gift.  Bulls +8 thank you very much.

Well yes, if you are on the bulls it is a bargain.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by coghill:

They won by 40 points, man. That is tough to do. Lots of people will take the Heat. If they had it only at 5 then everyone would take the heat.

Once that game got over 15 everything else was irrelevant.

Don't pay attention to the 40 in any way for this game. Think of it as a 15 pt win last game.
 
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Posted: #32
Also, you'd think the spurs would get similar respect to the Heat. 

Nope! 9.5 pt swing for their road game vs. 5.5 for the heat.

Granted GS is the toughest arena in the league in the playoffs IMO and they could be up 2-0 but still, Miami is 1-1!

It's like the first game didn't even happen!
 
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Posted: #33
That is GS could be up 2-0 necessitating the standard swing but again Miami lost the first game outright!

What? So we just equate it to rust and move on? This line tells us that is what the books think the public will think.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Once that game got over 15 everything else was irrelevant.

Don't pay attention to the 40 in any way for this game. Think of it as a 15 pt win last game.


Also, it was a 4 point game midway through the 2nd quarter.  Bulls just went on a bad run, got fucked by the refs and then packed it in and lost their cool.  Doesn't matter if they lsot by 60.  People forget they've alternate W-L with Miami for the last 8 games dating back to last season.  Back and forth.  Heck, losing by more is probably better.  Bulls usually come back from big losses well.  It's always amazing how people can't remember more than one game back.  When the Bulls cover inevitably the masses will be here wondering how they could win by 40 and then look so bad and not cover...and then they will cry fix.
 
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Nope! 9.5 pt swing for their road game vs. 5.5 for the heat.


You need to get a clue.

The heat won by 40.  That's why their swing is only 5.5.

GS has beat the spread 9 straight times (or whatever) and beat the Spurs straight up.  That's why their swing is 9.5.

You really need to wake up.  Or not.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:



You need to get a clue.

The heat won by 40.  That's why their swing is only 5.5.

GS has beat the spread 9 straight times (or whatever) and beat the Spurs straight up.  That's why their swing is 9.5.

You really need to wake up.  Or not.


If you don't give a sh!t about momentum, what has happened in the series, and just want to do math, then by all means.  Go right ahead.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:



You need to get a clue.

The heat won by 40.  That's why their swing is only 5.5.

GS has beat the spread 9 straight times (or whatever) and beat the Spurs straight up.  That's why their swing is 9.5.

You really need to wake up.  Or not.

And you need to get a clue about who won game 1 outright, which makes a 40 pt win in the next game a 1-1 series. And the bulls have home court as well.

And you said all this after post #40 (oh the irony) which describes you exactly.
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Well said. Understood.
22nd
 
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Posted: #39
 
What? So we just equate it to rust and move on? This line tells us that is what the books think the public will think.

[/Quote]

Ok Scal...so is this the perfect # for this game or what? Bulls backers as well as the Heat backers are happy as clams. As of 2:19 p  Vegas has Miami -8.5 (at the property I have an acct. with) and that # has been stable for a bit.

Next up IMO is Thibodeau, his clydsdales and 30-36 fouls to give vs. Spolestra, his thouroughbreds and the birdman.

What do you think the leagues instructions to the officiating crew will be? Let 'em play...or keep 'em on a short leash?

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


And you need to get a clue about who won game 1 outright, which makes a 40 pt win in the next game a 1-1 series. And the bulls have home court as well.

And you said all this after post #40 (oh the irony) which describes you exactly.


Alrite, then cut to the chase, since you're the one with the clue.  Who are you picking tonite, or is this just your "analysis" for us to wonder about?
 
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Posted: #41
i think the problem in the comparision is the 10 pt teams are evenly matched teams that are playing that way. 

whereas the bulls/heat series is rather unusual due to all the bulls injuries, & the unexpected results of game 1.

so i dont think its a rip off, just an unusual series with unusual results so the lines are unusual as well.

 
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Posted: #42
xactly u got deng, henrich, rose out.  possible suspension on gibson. and a 40-point blowout.

if it was at -4 the entire world would be on the Heat.  As long as the game doesn't come down to the last minute you're good.

The -8 gives you some people pause cause that's a lot of points.  You'd need a blowout.

All that said I'm not touching it before the start because NBA hit man Joey Crawford is reffing tonite.  I need to see what side he's on first.

JMO fellas.  Good luck.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by benhogan76:


Anyone ever hear Frank Sinatra's send in the clowns?

The last line in the song is "don't bother they're here."

They're here alright....they're here....
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by door54:

Ok Scal...so is this the perfect # for this game or what? Bulls backers as well as the Heat backers are happy as clams. As of 2:19 p  Vegas has Miami -8.5 (at the property I have an acct. with) and that # has been stable for a bit.

Next up IMO is Thibodeau, his clydsdales and 30-36 fouls to give vs. Spolestra, his thouroughbreds and the birdman.

What do you think the leagues instructions to the officiating crew will be? Let 'em play...or keep 'em on a short leash?


It's pretty amazing that it is now at a 4 pt gap from the previous 12.5.


If we had another day it may have got to 12.5! The same line as last game.

Short leash of course. The refs probably had a teleconference directly from Stern about it.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:



Alrite, then cut to the chase, since you're the one with the clue.  Who are you picking tonite, or is this just your "analysis" for us to wonder about?

I actually just wanted to start a conversation and a lot of good info was provided. I'll tell you this. I'm not paying an 8.5 point premium to take the heat and I don't care if they win this game by 20. It's just bad betting. I was bothered by 7 but 8.5 is just plain obnoxious.

I'm more inclined now to tease the bulls up from a line that looks like it may hit 9 before tip and will do the rest of my betting in game.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by joshfactor:

i think the problem in the comparision is the 10 pt teams are evenly matched teams that are playing that way. 

whereas the bulls/heat series is rather unusual due to all the bulls injuries, & the unexpected results of game 1.

so i dont think its a rip off, just an unusual series with unusual results so the lines are unusual as well.


Not true. The injuries were already factored into game 1 which should have made that game line higher or this one lower.
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

xactly u got deng, henrich, rose out.  possible suspension on gibson. and a 40-point blowout.

if it was at -4 the entire world would be on the Heat.  As long as the game doesn't come down to the last minute you're good.

The -8 gives you some people pause cause that's a lot of points.  You'd need a blowout.

All that said I'm not touching it before the start because NBA hit man Joey Crawford is reffing tonite.  I need to see what side he's on first.

JMO fellas.  Good luck.

He's literally going to grind the ball in his whistle to dust...
 
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Posted: #48
Talk about a ripoff now.  If we had a few more hours the line might get to 12.  The sheep are all hopping aboard the Heat, they don't care about the number.  Slaughter coming.
 
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Posted: #49
Scal I ended up getting 9 with my local. Will gladly take the points and run. It may not win but value-wise, it's the right play. BOL on whatever you play tonight
 
 
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Posted: #50
And we have liftoff. 


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