All Forums | NBA Betting

Experimental System plays thread

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 5053
Posts: 48
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2012
Posts: 2
Posted: #26

Blazers can save my night so I hope your right! 

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2012
Posts: 11318
Posted: #27
BOL to you!
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #28
Plays updated ytd 17-9-1
Knicks -9 confidence rating: A+
Spurs +5.5 confidence rating: A
Kings +6.5 confidence rating: B

Damn, the Blazers last night!

Added a bit more complexity, mostly one big additional filter with ATS history involved, added to this experiment. Lets see if this can bounce back strong tonight!


Good luck to everyone else on their plays
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #29
 Plays updated ytd 17-12-1
Knicks -9 confidence rating: A+
Spurs +5.5 confidence rating: A 
Kings +6.5 confidence rating: B

"No!.. Stop!....I said NO! Bad system!"

I took a bunch of time to strip down this system and bring it back down to it's roots. More like the "Gun to the head" system I wanted this to be, and I was straying away from it by having it try to be too open and also having it try to predict too complicated of games and situations...

Think I needed a reality check and got cocky, need to keep this simple and not have unnecessary elements that just don't guarantee enough. And only keep most of the stuff I spent good time back testing, and just did A LOT of back testing on a good new finding that is again, straight forward and simple. Here is the card for

Tuesday's card, now in technicolor:

 Plays (updated ytd 17-12-1)
T-Wolves@Heat +9      confidence rating: A-
Pacers@Bucks +2.5    confidence rating: B+
Hawks@Wizards -6          confidence rating: C+
Sixers@Mavs -5 or better       confidence rating: ?


As long as the Mavs line is not -5.5 or more, it'll play, most likely a "C-ish" grade. Will post again, at the latest, before game time to update on it. Time to hopefully start covering with some consistency. Now, most likely this revised system usually won't have plays on small cards, and maybe even big cards at times. Should be smaller volume for sure.



Oh and good luck to everyone else on their plays
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2007
Posts: 397
Posted: #30
How bout a sweep tonight!!!!

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 10129
Posted: #31
Good Luck today in the Association!
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #32
babu  Mikado

Quote Originally Posted by babu47:

How bout a sweep tonight!!!!



Cheers to that!



Think I'll just play the Mavs here, as the line is not too far off now, even at -6. Want to flex it a bit for the first day of system action, after a much needed revision. Will give the play the minimum C- grade. Really, to put it in perspective, it's so much closer to a C- than a D+, it's very close. Just doesn't officially make the C- grade, but rounding it out, it's easily the closest grade to it.

I'll update with the current lines, even though some moved a bit out of favor, only changes Hawks grade down to C. Really it's in-between a C and C+, but rounds out to a C.

Let the plays speak for themselves. Besides the straight plays, I personally think Mavs, T-Wolves, and Hawks could be a good teaser play tonight perhaps as well. But since we are getting a sweep here anyways, just a parlay on all 4 should do

Ok, won't get too cocky, but for sure I'd really like a 1 loss night at worst, after dealing with those last couple tough days and sleepless hours of work I put in on the rework.

Updated Plays (updated ytd 17-12-1)
T-Wolves@Heat +8.5  confidence rating: A-
Pacers@Bucks +2.5     confidence rating: B+
Hawks@Wizards -7           confidence rating: C
Sixers@Mavs -6                  confidence rating: C-
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 8771
Posted: #33
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #34
Yesterday (updated ytd 18-15-1)
T-Wolves@Heat +8.5
Pacers@Bucks +2.5
Hawks@Wizards -7
Sixers@Mavs -6

Expected better, but still a road ahead. Gonna keep my head up. At least the teaser I suggested previously, hit for me. Now a big card coming up and a lot plays happening to show up here..

It just so happens a lot of situations this system looks for are happening. Fading Bobcats after covering too easily last night against Lakers. System daring Bobcats. Toronto in hot mode (and sorta the Suns too), outright winning games as dogs. And Grizz a play because of the Bucks taking care of the Pacers last night, expecting a comedown here. And the Pacers losing out, while at the same time the Jazz upset and covered against Nets, both of these resulted on play on the Pacers. I'll try to write out some of these factors more often in the future.

So it happens that some things happening last night the way they did, results in this big card for Wednesday. I will not boast, predict or expect one bit here ....So lets just see how things play out, shall we?

Plays so far (updated ytd 18-15-1)
Pistons@Raptors -2   confidence rating: A+
Jazz@Pacers -3          confidence rating: A
Bobcats@Suns -9            confidence rating: A-
Bucks@Grizzlies -9   confidence rating: C+

One or two more to come most likely, waiting on lines...
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #35
Wow some of these lines seem like traps. Guess we will see..

Also switching the play subject line color to blue, because I can! Too many straight losing days, lets see what happens here..

Final Card (updated ytd 18-15-1)
Pistons@Raptors -2       confidence rating: A+
Jazz@Pacers -3              confidence rating: A
Sixers@Rockets +7.5   confidence rating: A
Bobcats@Suns -9               confidence rating: A-
Warriors@Kings -3       confidence rating: B
Bucks@Grizzlies -9      confidence rating: C+



Good luck to everyone else on their plays
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #36
Ok fully blue this time. Better be, or I'll give in to covers color editing..

Final Card (updated ytd 18-15-1)
Pistons@Raptors -2       confidence rating: A+
Jazz@Pacers -3              confidence rating: A
Sixers@Rockets +7.5   confidence rating: A
Bobcats@Suns -9               confidence rating: A-
Warriors@Kings -3       confidence rating: B
Bucks@Grizzlies -9      confidence rating: C+
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2012
Posts: 268
Posted: #37
Great job 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 556
Posted: #38
GOOD JOB
you will be on fire again
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #39
Thanks


4-2 is decent for one night, but I'm hoping that can be close to the % that can seem normal for this.

No system plays tonight. A good card to stay away from I think, that's my personal view.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #40
Not much time for chat, just the plays. Hope this can start to get on a bit of a roll now.

Friday's Card (updated ytd 22-17-1)
Bulls@Knicks -6.5         confidence rating: A+
Mavs@Grizzlies -10      confidence rating: A+
Bobcats@Warriors -11 confidence rating: B+ Wizards@Pistons +6      confidence rating: C+
Hornets@Spurs -14          confidence rating: C-

possibly one more...




Good luck to everyone else on their plays
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #41
Fixed formatting (hopefully!)

Friday's Card (updated ytd 22-17-1)
Bulls@Knicks -6.5         confidence rating: A+
Mavs@Grizzlies -10      confidence rating: A+
Bobcats@Warriors -11 confidence rating: B+
Wizards@Pistons +6      confidence rating: C+
Hornets@Spurs -14          confidence rating: C-

possibly one more...
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #42
last play is..
Hawks@Sixers -2              confidence rating: A

Simple system explanation:
Hawks a desperate solid team facing just a team that isn't close to covering anything lately. Bulls still getting too much favor in spreads as if Derrick Rose is back, with the Knicks at home being as good as anyone, revenge factor usually bigger than normal when seeking it back at home. Wizards way more reliable covering games, especially of late, than the Pistons. Pistons having a rare decent sized spread to have to cover. Mavs in the middle of their downswing and tired, while Grizz are still heating back up. Spurs ready to take out frustration with a beat down game against a team like the Hornets, one of those teams not opposed to taking them. Bobcats still not showing any signs of life, while the Warriors are a very reliable bounce back team.


Good luck to everyone else on their plays
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #43
System not going very well here. Should have canceled Hawks game with Sixers getting healthy, that's a anti-system kind of situation there.

Will have a decent amount of free time, being holiday break, and will look things over yet again. Won't be as fun, but think I will just REALLY look to narrow down volume on this. Darn NBA so much trickery for me than MLB
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #44
Still not finished with this rework I'm doing, but I'm still gonna just put out plays as I revise. It is still just as experimental, after all! But, work in progress or not, I like kind of like what it spit out tonight thus far as a wip, so here goes:

Friday (updated total ytd 23-21-2)
Grizz@Rockets +1                confidence rating: A
Pistons@Wizards +1.5  confidence rating: A
Cats@Nuggets-15.5    confidence rating: B

also likes Pacers -3.5 and Cavs +8.5 as leans, but not playing..


Good luck to everyone else on their plays
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #45
Messed up again...

Friday (updated total ytd 23-21-2)
Grizz@Rockets +1                confidence rating: A
Pistons@Wizards +1.5  confidence rating: A
Cats@Nuggets-15.5    confidence rating: B
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 556
Posted: #46
good lock
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #47
Thanks sevillon, but I just realized I put it was Friday again there.. Went 1-2 there, but hopefully the quality of plays will only get better as I work on it. Well, they can only go up I'd hope..

Would be a nice time to turn around that ytd, with it approaching down to 50%...
Sunday (updated total ytd 24-23-2)
Blazers +1 confidence rating: A
Spurs -11.5  confidence rating: B
Clippers -6.5  confidence rating: B
 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 601
Posted: #48
2-1 last time, and hopefully winning days are what lies ahead. Like last couple times I'm still using simplified grading (no -'s or +'s). Big card for this system rework, but two of the plays are C graded, which I now just opened up to be able to qualify as plays for the moment, just now for this current rework of the system. I have made great progress with this rework, but it still needs some more work.

Christmas (updated total ytd 26-24-2)
Thunder +2.5 confidence rating: A
Bulls -4.5  confidence rating: B
Knicks +3.5  confidence rating: C

Lean on Clippers -7

Hope you all have a jolly and merry Eggnog day!
All Forums | NBA Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.